Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 19-8
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
- Tools: Oliveira has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 20-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Connor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Tools: Poirier has near plus plus striking (75) and plus grappling (70).
Oliveira has proven to be a very dangerous guy. Can finish the fight anywhere. But stylistically, this is a very winnable fight for Poirier. Dustin has the ability to keep this on the feet where he should have an advantage. Poirier should be more durable. And I think if Poirier can overcome McGregor, because look, most fighters, when they lose the first fight, they lose the rematch. Not just skills, but mentally, it’s really hard for fighters to over come it. But Poirier did that in the second fight with McGregor. Poirier has fought against Khabib. He’s not going to be intimidated by what Oliveira brings to the table. I’m confident I’m grading both their striking skills accurately and Poirier is just better. He’s proven his 75 striking by out landing 70 strikers in Holloway (who fought up a weight class) and Hooker. I’d have Poirier priced at -200, which is pretty close to what the line is. I think Poirier’s cardio will be the ultimate difference late in the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Poirier by 4th round knockout.
Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena
- Amanda Nunes
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 14-1
- Key Wins: Beat Germaine de Randamie twice. Once by knockout, the other by decision. Knocked out Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Raqual Pennington, and Ronda Rousey. Submitted Megan Anderson and Miesha Tate. Beat Felicia Spencer and Valentina Shevchenko twice.
- Tools: Nunes has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
- Julianna Pena
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Sarah Moras. Beat Cat Zingano and Nicco Montano.
- Tools: Pena has near plus striking (65). She also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
To the eye, Nunes has looked like she’s had 80 striking the last couple fights. And I think it has more to do with Anderson and Spencer being rushed into a title shot due to a lack of contenders. I rewatched Nunes’ fights with de Randamie and Holm, and despite Nunes clearly winning, her striking was more of a 75. She had trouble, went back and forth with de Randamie in the striking exchanges. Won the fight due to better wrestling and cardio. And the Holm fight, the striking was close to equal until Nunes knocked her out. So Nunes striking I think is more like a 75. Her wrestling is a legit 70. Now, for Pena to have a chance, she has to come into this fight with 75 wrestling. And has to hope her cardio is better than Nunes’. Pena’s last fight with McMann is interesting. Early on, McMann was getting the better of the wrestling. But McMann ran out of gas. The pace was too much. By the 3rd round, Pena took over, got control in the grappling, and got a submission. That’s Pena’s path to possibly upsetting Nunes. But I have to pick Nunes because that’s all projection. I have Pena’s wrestling at a 70 for now. Which means what likely happens in this fight is that Nunes is able to stuff most take downs and will easily win on the feet. But the line is of course insane. I think a fair price for Nunes is around -400. But oddsmakers opened Nunes so high, most around -800, because they want people to go away and not bet the Nunes side. Pena at +500 is tempting, but I’m not going to bet it because the chances of Nunes winning here is really high and I don’t like to throw away profits chasing underdogs.
Chris’ Pick: Nunes by 2nd round knockout.
Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Geoff Neal
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Perry and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed.
- Tools: Neal has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Tools: Ponzinibbio has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
Neal’s striking is pretty tough to grade. I had it as a 65 going into his last fight with Neil Magny. The first round was close. But after that, Magny’s cardio started to take over and by the end of the fight, he had outlanded Neal by almost a 3 to 1 clip. But how much of that has to do with Magny’s cardio being superior vs Magny’s striking being superior? I’m not sure. But I’m going to keep his striking at 65 for now. Ponzinibbio started to look like his old self by the 2nd round of his fight with Baeza. Remember, Ponzinibbio is the last guy to beat Magny with striking. I’m pretty sure Ponzinibbio’s striking is a 70 and will be better than Neal there. But I’m not super confident and the pick em price with both guys at -110 is close to where I’d have them at.
Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by decision.
Cody Garbrandt vs Kai Kara France
- Cody Garbrandt
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4 at 135 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Dominick Cruz.
- Tools: Garbrandt has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
- Kai Kara France
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rogerio Bontorin. Beat Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Tools: Kara France has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Interesting fight as Garbrandt will be dropping down to make his flyweight debut. Garbrandt at -175 is pretty close to what I would price it at, but so far, the majority of money has come in on the Kara France side. On paper, I think betting Garbrandt is pretty safe. Sometimes when fighters drop in weight and the cut doesn’t go well, their chin doesn’t hold up and aren’t able to take as much damage. But Kara France only has 60 power. He’s not a KO threat despite him picking up his first UFC knockout last time out over Bontorin. I see Garbrandt having a big power advantage. And I’m pretty sure Garbrandt has 70 wrestling. Assuncao got nowhere close to taking him down. And Garbrandt was able to take Rob Font down a couple times with some control. Kara France has shown that wrestling is his weak point. Royval caught him in a guillotine that he couldn’t get out of. And Bontorin might have beat Kara France with his grappling had he not gassed himself out going for the submission in the 1st round. So I think with Garbrandt being even bigger at 125 lbs, he should be able to mix in some take downs, which will make it easier for him to eventually land the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Garbrandt by 2nd round knockout.
Sean O’Malley vs Raulian Paiva
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: O’Malley has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Raulian Paiva
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 21-3
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision to Kai Kara-France.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 grappler. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision wins over a 17-4 grappler and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Tools: Paiva has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
O’Malley will probably win this fight but the line is insane, O’Malley at -325. I think that’s just a product of how popular he is. The reality is that we just haven’t seen his take down defense really tested against a high level 65 wrestler like Paiva. I think O’Malley’s wrestling is a 60, but I could be wrong. It could be a 55. Or even a 65. Paiva at +250 is really tempting. But if O’Malley is smart, he’ll watch Paiva’s fight with Phillips. And see that Phillips gassed himself out in the 1st round chasing the finish. Nearly had Paiva knocked out. O’Malley will probably be more patient. Should have a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by 2nd round knockout.
Dan Ige vs Josh Emmett
- Dan Ige
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Tools: Ige has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Josh Emmett
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Beat Shane Burgos
- Tools: Emmett has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
When Ige squeaked out a win over Barboza, I thought it was time to grade his striking a plus 70. But that was Barboza’s first fight at 145 lbs. Maybe the cut didn’t go smooth for him. Because since then, Ige’s striking fell short against a 70 striker in Calvin Kattar and a 70 striker in The Korean Zombie. So it’s pretty clear that for now, I have to grade his striking a near plus 65. And that will be a problem with Emmett who proved he’s got legit 70 striking. He went blow for blow with a 70 striker in Burgos, but the difference in that fight was Emmett’s power advantage. My only concern in betting Emmett here is that this is his first fight coming off a major injury that’s kept him out for over a year. But besides that, Emmett should win. And I’m picking by decision as Ige has proven his durability.
Chris’ Pick: Emmett by decision.
Dominick Cruz vs Pedro Munhoz
- Dominick Cruz
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Beat Urijah Faber twice. Split decision wins over TJ Dillashaw and Casey Kenney.
- Tools: Cruz has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Pedro Munhoz
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Jimmie Rivera and Brett Johns.
- Tools: Munhoz has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
I’m not that excited about this fight from an entertainment standpoint, but I am from a betting standpoint. This is the type of fight I really enjoy to bet. I’m confident in the outcome and there’s low risk with Cruz clocking in at a pick em price of -110. It’s a crazy price. I think Cruz should be at -250. At least. Munhoz is who he is. He’s had 15 UFC fights now. And his developed stalled awhile ago. He didn’t get blown out against Jose Aldo, but he wasn’t close to winning either. Aldo sort of cruised through the fight. And for Cruz to go against a likely title contender in Kenney and squeak out a split decision win, that’s really impressive. I’m very confident Cruz will out strike Munhoz here.
Chris’ Pick: Cruz by decision.
Tai Tuivasa vs Augusto Sakai
- Tai Tuivasa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Greg Hardy and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Tuivasa has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Augusto Sakai
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura, Chase Sherman, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Blagoi Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Sakai has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Heavyweight is a unique division in the sense that power counts for more than other divisions. In this fight, Sakai should have the better striking. Might have the better cardio. But for him to win, he’d have to stand and trade with Tuivasa for 15 minutes. And it’s possible Tuivasa’s striking could theoretically be a 70 now. We just haven’t seen that much of Tuivasa since he lost to Spivac, due to being taken down. Since that fight, he’s had three 1st round knockouts. But even if Tuivasa’s striking is still a 65, I don’t see Sakai being able to withstand Tuivasa’s power for 15 minutes. I think eventually Tuivasa will catch him.
Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa by 2nd round knockout.
Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 21-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Tools: Silva has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jordan Wright
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Wright has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
The line on this fight is bonkers. A little less than 2 weeks before the fight, Silva clocks in at a -360 favorite, with the come back on Wright at +280. That’s insanity. Silva knocked out Turman due to ground and pound. And he knocked out Sanchez after Sanchez gassed out in the 3rd round. And that was after Silva lost the first 2 rounds from Sanchez take downs. We really haven’t seen a ton of stand up from Silva. I just don’t see how his striking could be graded a 65 at this point. I haven’t seen anything from him that’d warrant that. And Wright is a proven commodity. He has 2 quick KO’s over Ike Villanueva and Pickett. But his striking was proven to be a 60 in the Joaquin Buckley fight. And after the Pickett fight, I’d say it’s very possible Wright’s striking could have improved to a 65. I have both of these guys graded the same and projection wise, I think it’s more likely Wright comes in with the better stand up. I think this fight is a coin flip and Wright absolutely has value at +280.
Chris’ Pick: Wright by 2nd round knockout.
Andre Muniz vs Eryk Anders
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jacare Souza, Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker, and a 6-0 striker. Beat an 8-2 grappler.
- Tools: Muniz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Eryk Anders
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Darren Stewart and Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Tools: Anders has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Okay, so it looks like Muniz is for real. I’m not going to doubt him anymore. Submitting someone like Fabinski, quickly in the 1st round, maybe that’s luck. But to do that two fights in a row, submitting Jacare in the 1st, that shows it’s likely skill leading to those outcomes. And based on how dangerous Muniz is when he gets his opponent on the ground, it’s possible his grappling could be a 75. And I can’t emphasize enough what a dramatic leap in development Muniz had between his fight with Antonio Arroyo in November 2019 to the Fabinski fight in September 2020. With Anders, he might be strong enough to get off the ground in the first half of the fight. But he’s got a lot of muscle mass, really slows down towards the end of the fight. I think Anders get a lot easier to take towards the end of the fight and Muniz will eventually catch him.
Chris’ Pick: Muniz by 3rd round submission.
Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 24
- Pro/Amateur Record: 17-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
- Key Wins: Submitted DeAnna Bennett and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
- Tools: Maverick has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Beat Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Tools: Blanchfield has above average striking (60). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
Both of these fighters have legit potential champion upside. And it’s rare for prospects that are this young and this early in their career to be matched up together. Similar to Maverick vs Barber. So this is a really good match up. I’ll say that Blanchfield blew me away in her UFC debut. Her tools took a big leap from when I saw her in Invicta. Took down a 55 wrestler in Alpar and controlled her almost all fight. Blanchfield’s striking was also better than I thought. But Maverick’s striking is on another tier right now. I thought Barber’s striking would make the difference in beating Maverick, but Maverick actually out struck her! I picked Barber to win, the judges gave the fight to Barber. But most, including myself, thought Maverick won the first 2 rounds to win the fight. But in any case, I’ve upgraded Maverick’s striking to a 70, albeit with 60 power. Even if Blanchfield’s striking turns out to be a 65, Maverick has margin to win here. And I love Maverick at -140. Great value. Really surprising. I’d price Maverick at around -250.
Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.
Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell
- Alex Perez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
- Tools: Perez has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (65).
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-4 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Tools: Schnell has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Schnell’s last fight with Bontorin was disappointing, not because he lost, Bontorin is really good. It was disappointing because Schnell never really let his hands go, didn’t give himself a chance to win. It’s possible Schnell’s striking is a 65, albeit with 55 power. But if he thought the moment vs Bontorin was too big, what is he going to do against a title challenger like Perez. And even if Schnell’s striking is a 65, there’s enough margin still for Perez to win the striking exchanges. But no matter what, Perez is going to have a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by 1st round knockout.
Ryan Hall vs Darrick Minner
- Ryan Hall
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Beat Darren Elkins.
- Tools: Hall has above average striking (60) and has near plus grappling (65).
- Darrick Minner
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 26-12
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted TJ Laramie, a 10-3 grappler, a 13-4 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Charles Rosa and an 11-4 grappler.
- Tools: Minner has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
I think the odds are out of whack on this one. On average Hall is favored at -225. I don’t get it. Maybe people think he’s a better grappler than Minner. And he is. And maybe Hall will catch Minner in a submission. But it’s a maybe. I think Minner has the ability to get back up and stay out of trouble. Minner might also seem like the better traditional striker, but Hall is so awkward in his stand up, that it’s good. And yeah, Hall did out strike a 55 striker in Elkins. So to me, it’s a coin flip and Minner has solid value at +180. I can see either winning and there’s no chance I’m betting this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Hall by split decision.
Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley
- Randy Costa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Journey Newsom and a 6-2 striker.
- Tools: Costa has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tony Kelley
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Kevin Aguilar.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Kelley has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
I don’t understand what I’m missing here. Costa is only at -200?? What am I missing? So, I’m not entirely sure how good Ali Alqaisi is, Kelley’s last opponent. I do know how good Kai Kamaka is. Kamaka had 4 UFC fights. Went 1-2-1. His only UFC win was over Kelley. I’m very confident Kelley’s striking is an average 50 grade. Meanwhile, Costa fought possible contender Adrian Yanez. And out struck Yanez in the 1st round before running out of gas and getting knocked out in the 2nd. So, the only danger I see for Costa in this fight is Kelley maybe having some durability, where Costa gets aggressive looking for the early finish, doesn’t get it, and gasses out. But that’s it. As long as Costa can be patient, he wins this easy. If I was pricing this, I’d have Costa around -500.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
Gillian Robertson vs Priscila Cachoeira
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
- Tools: Robertson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Priscila Cachoeira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gina Mazany and Shana Dobson.
- Tools: Cachoeira has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Cachoeira has made improvements in her wrestling, as shown by her ability to get back to her feet against 60 wrestler Mazany. But it wasn’t easy for Cachoeira. She got taken down all fight. Had to keep getting back up. And I don’t see Robertson giving her that same chance to get back up with her fight ending grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 1st round submission.