
Jose Aldo vs Rob Font
- Jose Aldo
- Age: 35
- UFC/WEC Record: 2-2 at 135 lbs. 20-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Marlon Vera, Urijah Faber, and Frankie Edgar.
- Tools: Aldo has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
- Rob Font
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
- Tools: Font has near plus plus striking (75). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Right off the bat, I normally wouldn’t bet on a fighter who I think has a wrestling disadvantage. But this is a different fight, because it’s Aldo. And it’s a 5 round fight. Yes, I do think Aldo has better wrestling than Font. But could Aldo take Font down round after round. No chance. He barely has enough cardio to strike all 5 rounds. For Aldo to win this fight, it needs to be early. But the problem for him is that Font’s striking has evolved to a near plus plus 75 grade. Font is so efficient, no wasted movement. I actually see a lot of similarities between Font and Petr Yan. They don’t impress early. The goal in the beginning of the fight is to just put a pace on. Then start pouring it on towards the middle of the fight when their opponent starts to tire out. That’s what’ll happen here. Aldo will probably win the 1st round, but it’ll be the only round he wins.
Chris’ Pick: Font by decision.
Brad Riddell vs Rafael Fiziev
- Brad Riddell
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Alex da Silva, a 12-2 striker. Beat Drew Dober. Split decision over Magomed Mustafaev.
- Tools: Riddell has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Rafael Fiziev
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Renato Moicano. Beat Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese.
- Tools: Fiziev has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
I rewatched Fiziev vs Moicano and picked up a little nugget that I don’t remember seeing before. Because we haven’t seen much of Fiziev’s ground game. Well, Moicano did after all try to take Fiziev down and got nowhere close. Fiziev easily defended it and shook Moicano off and Moicano didn’t attempt another take down after that. So I’m going to upgrade Fiziev’s wrestling to a 65. But I have to down grade his striking from a 70 to a 65. The fact that the Green fight was so close means that Fiziev’s striking isn’t a 70. For now. And Riddell is so evenly matched with Fiziev. This is really a coin flip fight, but I give a slight edge to Fiziev for having slightly better wrestling. And his striking is probably closer to a 70 than Riddell’s.
Chris’ Pick: Fiziev by decision.
Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos
- Clay Guida
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 17-14
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson. Split decision over Mark O. Madsen.
- Tools: Guida has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Leonardo Santos
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 7-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Norman Parke to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray. Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin.
- Tools: Santos has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Santos at -170 is the absolute best value on the card. Yes, Guida won his last fight, upset Madsen. But there’s no way his striking is better than a 55. And now way his wrestling is better than a 60. Santos came within 1 second of beating rising contender Grant Dawson. Even though Santos is 41 years old, he’s got a 7-0-1 UFC record that can’t be ignored. I’m confident his striking and grappling are both 65s. So there’s lots of margin here just in case my grades on their tools are off a little bit, which I don’t think they are.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
Jimmy Crute vs Jamahal Hill
- Jimmy Crute
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas and Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Crute has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux. Beat Darko Stosic. Knocked out a 9-2 striker.
- Tools: Hill has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Even though Crute got a loss in his last fight, he was doing pretty well against a resurgent Smith. Striking was close to equal until Smith landed the calf kick that eventually ended the fight due to doctor stoppage. And even though Hill lost to Paul Craig, he did show that his wrestling is at least a 65. I was impressed despite the loss. So this fight will play out on the feet. Hill is really good and has a bright future. But Crute has cardio and way more power than Hill. I see that being the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Crute by 2nd round knockout.
Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Punahele Soriano and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Allen has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 27-8
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Tools: Curtis has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
That Curtis upset over Hawes still does not make any logical sense. At one point, Hawes was out striking Curtis 21 to 3 in the 1st round. It was a near shut out. But then, Curtis landed a check left hook and it was all over, just like that. Flash knockouts happen sometimes. Cost of doing business. It’s possible that Curtis is better at 185 lbs than 170 lbs, we’ll see. But in any event, this should be an easy win for Allen. He should be better everywhere. I say should because I said the same thing about Hawes haha. Allen has two legit paths to win. I think he should be priced at -500 so anything less expensive than that I think is good value.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by 2nd round submission.
Darian Weeks vs Bryan Barbarena
- Darian Weeks
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Tools: Weeks has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Jason Witt.
- Key Wins: Beat Warlley Alves.
- Tools: Barberena has above average (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m pretty surprised that this fight is near a pick em with Barberena favored at only -125. I think Barberena’s striking will be slightly better. But the big 2 factors here are Barberena’s durability and the fact that Weeks took this fight on a week’s notice. So Weeks’ cardio won’t be in tip top shape. I see Barberena putting a heavy pace on Weeks. It’s not a lock, I’m not betting on it, but unless Weeks is better than I have him graded here, Barberena should win.
Chris’ Pick: Barbarena by decision.
Dusko Todorovic vs Maki Pitolo
- Dusko Todorovic
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michel Pereira and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
- Tools: Todorovic has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Maki Pitolo
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-8
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Callan Potter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Pitolo has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
Pitolo has a ghoulish 13-8 pro record and 2-4 UFC record, but he does have skills. He even showed up to his fight with Julian Marquez with improved 60 wrestling. He took Marquez down repeatedly and should’ve won the fight. But he gassed out and got caught in a choke with 1 minute left. It’s possible that Pitolo’s striking could be a 60, but we didn’t see much of it against Marquez except when Pitolo was gassed and couldn’t take Marquez down anymore. Todorovic is the safer pick. I’m confident his striking is a 60. He should win, but it’s not a lock.
Chris’ Pick: Todorovic by decision.
Manel Kape vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Manel Kape
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ode Osbourne and a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker.
- Tools: Kape has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to a well rounded 19-7 fighter and a 6-5 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jerome Rivera. Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
- Tools: Zhumagulov has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
Really competitive fight that’s going to force me to have to project to make a pick. I have both guys graded exactly the same, except Kape also has some 55 grappling. But I think Kape’s striking is closer to a 65 than Zhumagulov’s is. Kape probably has more power. This one is going to be close. But Kape at -210 is absolutely crazy. I’m not betting this fight, but Zhumagulov is definitely a live dog at +170.
Chris’ Pick: Kape by split decision.
Jake Matthews vs Jeremiah Wells
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Beat Jingliang Li.
- Tools: Matthews has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Jeremiah Wells
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 9-2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Warlley Alves and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler.
- Tools: Wells has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
As you get lower and lower on this card, you’ll start to notice a pattern of guys on this card that are hard to pin down on how good their tools really are. Wells is very tough. I initially had his striking at a 55. But blitzed Alves in the 1st round. Went hard. Probably wouldn’t have been able to keep the pace over 3 rounds? But we don’t know that for sure. Maybe his cardio would’ve held up. We’ll never know. I know who Matthews is. He’s had 14 UFC fights. Kinda plateaued a bit. But he should win this fight. And because Matthews lacks power, the smart thing for him to do is let Wells tire himself out, and then try to take over in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by decision.
Mallory Martin vs Cheyanne Vlismas
- Mallory Martin
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Hannah Cifers. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 striker.
- Tools: Martin has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Cheyanne Vlismas
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gloria de Paula. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 striker.
- Tools: Vlismas has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Vlismas could be starting to unlock some power in her hands. But I still think the power is a 50 because the TKO over de Paula was only her 2nd career knockout. Obviously, this fight comes down to whether Martin, the wrestler, can keep Vlismas down after taking her down. And how much of this fight is on the feet. But the interesting thing will be what the odds makers set the prices at. I predict that Vlismas will be too heavy because the last fight for Vlismas was an impressive KO and Martin’s last fight was her getting submitted in the 1st round. But I promise you, Martin is a live underdog and might be worth a roll of the dice at anywhere near +250.
Chris’ Pick: Vlismas by decision.
Alonzo Menifield vs William Knight
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Tools: Menifield has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- William Knight
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Fabio Cherant and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Aleksa Camur.
- Tools: Knight has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Menifield at -145. I really love the value here. Sure, Knight looks like he has big power and that could make it a coin flip fight. But his striking is slow and prodding. He’s like Derrick Lewis. He sells out for power and doesn’t throw much. And that will be a problem with Menifield who showed legit striking against Herman. Menifield has been reckless in the past. Gassed out. But Herman showed great improvement in that Menifield could take his time and focus on just touching his opponent vs power shot after power shot. I see Menifield using that same approach. Touch. Touch. Until he gets the KO. I really think Menifield should be at -350.
Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round knockout.
Chris Greutzemacher vs Claudio Puelles
- Chris Gruetzemacher
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov.
- Key Wins: Beat Rafa Garcia. Split decision over a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Greutzemacher has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Claudio Puelles
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat Jordan Leavitt.
- Tools: Puelles has average striking (50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Really interesting fight between two guys who turned out to be way better than not just I thought, but better than the betting public thought too. Turns out Puelles has 65 wrestling as he was able to take down and control a 55 wrestler in Leavitt. And it turns out Greutzemacher has 65 striking with how he upset and out struck a 55 striker in Garcia. Striker vs wrestler. And unfortunately for Greutzemacher, wrestling has been his achilles heel. Even as recent as his last fight with Garcia, Garcia was able to take him down multiple times. Greutzemacher was able to get back up, but it shows that he really hasn’t developed that part of his game. I think Puelles taking Greutzemacher down early and often. And guys, Puelles is priced at +120. Tremendous value. If I was making the odds, I’d have Puelles at -225.
Chris’ Pick: Puelles by decision.
Azamat Murzakanov vs Jared Vanderaa
- Azamat Murzakanov
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
- Tools: Murzakanov has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Jared Vanderaa
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter. Beat Justin Tafa.
- Tools: Vanderaa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
The story of this fight is that Murzakanov was supposed to fight Philipe Lins at 205 lbs. Now he’s fighting Vanderaa at heavyweight on less than a week’s notice. And the jump between light heavyweight to heavyweight is the steepest of jumps. So at heavyweight, I’m grading Murzakanov’s striking a 60 and his wrestling a 55. I think Vanderaa’s size advantage makes this a stand up fight. But I think people are making a mistake staking Murzakanov as a favorite because they’re not taking into account that this is a heavyweight fight where Vanderaa will be much bigger. Thus Vanderaa at +175 has some good value.
Chris’ Pick: Vanderaa by decision.
Alex Morono vs Mickey Gall
- Alex Morono
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Tools: Morono has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Mickey Gall
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Diego Sanchez. Lost to Mike Perry
- Key Wins: Submitted Sage Northcutt.
- Tools: Gall has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
Gall might have figured out how to unlock more power in his hands. The record shows Gall submitted Williams, but in reality, the submission was caused by Gall dropping him. Twice. That led to the choke. For now, I still have Gall’s power as a 50. Morono might be at his ceiling 13 fights into his UFC career. And he’s been successful with a 9-4 record. And even if Morono doesn’t improve anymore, I’m confident his striking is a 65. I know Gall’s striking isn’t better than a 60. Might even be a 55. I think Morono at anywhere near -250 is solid value as I see that he has some margin to win this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Morono by decision.
Louis Smolka vs Vince Morales
- Louis Smolka
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 135 lbs.8-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paddy Holohan and Mudaerji Su. Knocked out Jose Quinonez and Ben Nguyen.
- Tools: Smolka has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Vince Morales
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Morales has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
Smolka at -140 is just flat crazy. Maybe Morales’ wrestling is a 55, but I’m confident that it’s not better than that. And Smolka has looked way, way better at 135 lbs. He took on Quinonez, who I know has 60 wrestling. Smolka took him down a couple times. And the second time would be the last because Smolka ended the fight with ground and pound. And if he could do that to Quinonez, I’m pretty sure he’ll be able to replicate the performance with Morales. I think Smolka should be closer to -400. Big value here.
Chris’ Pick: Smolka by 1st round submission.