Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 16-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Tools: Lewis has above average striking paired with plus plus power (60-80). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexei Oleinik and Rodrigo Nascimento.
- Tools: Daukaus has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
Really excited for this fight. I’ve come to the realization, watching Lewis vs Ciryl Gane, that Lewis’ striking is more of a 60, than a 65. But I’m upgrading his power to an 80. His strategy is interesting. He doesn’t mind being out struck. Lewis is focused on conserving his energy and he’d rather wait for the right moments to explode and land the KO punch. And just like Francis Ngannou, he doesn’t need too many strikes to land the knock out. But the strategy was exposed in the Gane fight, because Lewis’ problem was he just couldn’t land on Gane nearly at all. And Daukaus is similar to Gane. Daukaus hand speed for a heavyweight looks special. Gane might be slightly faster, but I’d say Daukaus has more power. So looking at the tools of the fighters, Daukaus will probably win the fight. But I’m not going to bet him, because there are ways for Lewis to win. Lewis actually has legit 65 wrestling now. And he could use his size to push Daukaus against the fence or take him down a couple times. But the big thing, is that yeah, Daukaus will easily out land Lewis. But all it takes for Lewis to win is land one big, clean shot. I bet on Lewis to upset Curtis Bladyes, but Lewis was priced at around +300. I viewed it as close to a coin flip fight and the price made it worth it. I also view this as a near coin flip fight, but it’s priced where it should be. Lewis only +125. Not worth the risk for me. But, the most likely out come is that Daukaus lands a lot more and is able to knock Lewis out .
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 2nd round knockout.
Stephen Thompson vs Belal Muhammad
- Stephen Thompson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
- Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Jorge Masvidal, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque.
- Tools: Thompson has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Beat Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Tools: Muhammad has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Muhammad’s fight with Maia was a good test to see if his wrestling had gotten better. And it really hasn’t. Muhammad won the fight. Easily out struck Maia. But, Maia did get the better of the grappling, being able to get a take down and control Muhammad up against the fence for good chunks of the fight. With Thompson, he did lose to Gilbert Burns last time out, but the fight was close. All 3 judges had the fight 1-1 going into the 3rd round. Thompson was getting the better of the striking, but Burns landed a take down with a couple minutes left and Thompson couldn’t get back up. However, Thompson did show his wrestling is indeed a 65, which will be good enough to keep the fight on the feet. And there’s margin here, folks, in the striking between these guys. Means that even if Belal improves his striking to a 70, it’s not going to be enough to out land Thompson.
Chris’ Pick: Thompson by decision.
Angela Hill vs Amanda Lemos
- Angela Hill
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michelle Waterson and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Ashley Yoder and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Tools: Hill has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue.
- Tools: Lemos has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
In my opinion, Lemos is one of the safest picks on the card. Hill got decisively out struck by Tecia Torres. So much so, I almost downgraded her striking to a 60. The odds of Hill catching Lemos with a power shot is pretty small. The wrestling is close to equal. The only way I see Lemos losing this fight is getting too aggressively going for an early finish and gassing out. But other than that, this fight should show that Lemos is about to become a legitimate contender at 115 lbs.
Chris’ Pick: Lemos by 2nd round knockout.
Ricky Simon vs Raphael Assuncao
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Merab Dvalishvili. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Tools: Simon has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Raphael Assuncao
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Wins: Beat Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Bryan Caraway. Split decision wins over Marlon Moraes, Aljamain Sterling, and TJ Dillashaw (2013).
- Tools: Assuncao has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
The way this fight is being priced, with Simon as high as -300 in some books, you’d think Simon is very, very likely to win. But I disagree with that. Assuncao is not just a regular run of the mill 39 year old grappler. Yes, Cody Garbrandt knocked him out in the last fight. But before the KO, the striking was close. He could regress coming into this fight, being 39 years old. He might be gun shy in the pocket. But I’d have Simon at -125. I’m not betting Assuncao, but it’s absolutely tempting. He’s a live dog.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by split decision.
Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Gamrot
- Diego Ferreira
- Age: 36
- UFC record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Beneil Dariush.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov.
- Tools: Ferreira has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 19-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
- Tools: Gamrot has above average striking (60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and near plus grappling (65).
With Gamrot, we’re probably looking at a guy who will fight for the title in a couple years. The way he easily took down Jeremy Stephens and advanced position, got him in a kimura, and submitted him, was eerily reminiscent of what Islam Makhachev just did to Dan Hooker. That said, this is a coin flip fight because it’s going to come down to who has the better striking. The ground game for both is close to equal. I have both guys graded as a 60, projection wise, Gamrot is most likely to come in with improved striking. He’s only had 3 UFC fights. He’s at the beginning of his development, while Ferreira has had 12 UFC fights. But Gamrot at -200? Way too pricey. Being that I see this fight going 50-50, Ferreira has some value at +160.
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by split decision.
Cub Swanson vs Darren Elkins
- Cub Swanson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 12-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Pineda. Beat Doo Ho Choi and Kron Gracie.
- Tools: Swanson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 16-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and Mirsad Bektic. Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Tools: Elkins has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Very winnable fight for Swanson. Got starched in his last fight by Giga Chikadze. No shame there. Before that though, Swanson turned back the clock and knocked out Pineda. A very surprising result considering the last time Swanson knocked someone out, it was Dennis Siver in 2013. Swanson is more about volume and cardio. And that’s the perfect antidote to The Damage. Time and time again, Elkins has shown elite durability. Sets a trap for his opponent. Opponent tries valiantly to finish Elkins. Fails. Then Elkins strikes. But Cub isn’t a KO guy. He’s a 38 year old vet. I’m confident he’s going to fight smart here. Conserve his gas tank at all costs. And just touch up Elkins.
Chris’ Pick: Swanson by decision.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Dustin Stoltzfus
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Tools: Meerschaert has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
- Dustin Stoltzfus
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 10-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Stoltzfus has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Meerschaert’s last 2 fights have been pretty inspirational. He suffers 2 knockout losses in a row. The latter, an embarrassing KO loss to Khamzat Chimaev in 17 seconds with a single punch. At that point, you think, maybe this guy is done. But since then, he submitted a quality opponent in Fabinski and cashed as a +425 dog by submitting Muradov. Despite getting nearly knocked out again with Muradov, Meerschaert’s striking improved as the fight went on. I think his striking has improved to a 60, but I’m not entirely sure. What I am sure about though is how much I love Meerschaert at -230. I’d price him around -400. Meerschaert is better everywhere. I really don’t see a path to victory for Stoltzfus.
Chris’ Pick: Meerschaert by 1st round submission.
Justin Tafa vs Harry Hunsucker
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 4-3
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams.
- Tools: Tafa has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Harry Hunsucker
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Tools: Hunsucker has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
You don’t see this too often but Hunsucker is the rare fighter who has 11 pro fights and every single one of them has ended in the 1st round. Meaning Hunsucker hasn’t fought in the 2nd round his entire pro career. Crazy. Tafa normally starts fast too, but he’d be smart to sit back, be really patient. Wait for Hunsucker to punch himself out and then turn it up in the 2nd. But Tafa is priced at -350? That’s also crazy. I’m not betting Hunsucker but I think this fight is pretty close to a coin flip with the type of power both of these guys have and Hunsucker at +265 is tempting.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 2nd round knockout.
Sijara Eubanks vs Melissa Gatto
- Sijara Eubanks
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 135 lbs. 7-3 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Bethe Correia.
- Key Wins: Beat Julia Avila and Lauren Murphy. Beat Roxanne Modafferi twice.
- Tools: Eubanks has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus wrestling (70).
- Melissa Gatto
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-4-1 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karol Rosa. Knocked out Victoria Leonardo.
- Tools: Gatto has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Oddsmakers must think much higher of Gatto than I do. When I first saw the fight announced, I thought Eubanks would be priced around -450. But instead you can bet her near -220. Maybe it’s because a lot of them forget that Eubanks is much different at flyweight vs bantamweight. Eubanks fought Elisa Reed last time out. And Reed is a really good prospect. 60 wrestling. And Eubanks dominated her. Made it look easy. And I really don’t think Gatto’s grappling is more than a 55 right now. She fought Leonardo and I’m very confident her grappling is just a 55. And her and Gatto went back and forth on the ground. Gatto won because her striking was better. I also think Eubanks has better striking although it is possible Gatto’s striking could be more like a 60 and the fight could be close to equal there. But I think Eubanks cruises here because of her big time wrestling advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Eubanks by decision.
Charles Jourdain vs Andre Ewell
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 2-3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Jourdain has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Andre Ewell
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Jonathan Martinez and Irwin Rivera.
- Tools: Ewell has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Jourdain is really tough to figure out. On the one hand, he looks great and knocks out Choi. Then loses a close split decision loss to Andre Fili. Then he fights Culibao to a draw, has an okay fight with Marcelo Rojo, knocked him out in the 3rd round. And not only did he get submitted by Julian Erosa, but the striking was pretty close to equal. And I had Erosa going in with 55 striking. So what are the odds that Erosa’s all of a sudden a 65 striker? It’s possible, but not likely, thus I’m downgrading Jourdain’s striking to a 60. On the other side, this will be Ewell’s 145 lb debut. Smart move. His wrestling probably won’t be any better, but will he have more power? Maybe. Bunch of maybes in this fight. Maybe Jourdain’s striking is a 65 after all. Maybe Ewell has more power. Lot of projections. But based on the data we have now, I see Jourdain having more power and squeaking out a win.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by split decision.
Raquel Pennington vs Macy Chiasson
- Raquel Pennington
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Wins: Beat Pannie Kianzad, Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau. Split decision wins over Irene Aldana and Bethe Correira.
- Tools: Pennington has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Macy Chiasson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad. Knocked out Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany. Beat Marion Reneau.
- Tools: Chiasson has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Really close fight. Could go either way. It’s possible that Pennington could try and clinch Chiasson against the fence most of the fight, mix in some take downs to get the win as she probably has the better wrestling. But Chiasson will have a monster power advantage. But Pennington has proved to be durable. So it might just depend on if the judges score more credit for take downs and clinch work or give more credit to damage landed.
Chris’ Pick: Chiasson by decision.
Josh Parisian vs Don’tale Mayes
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a 24-8 striker. Split decision over Roque Martinez.
- Tools: Parisian has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 grappler and a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Mayes has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
I don’t like Mayes at -200. I think this is more of a coin flip type fight. And I understand why Mayes is favored. Both recently fought Roque Martinez and Mayes had the clearer win. However, Martinez’s last fight was against Parisian. And Parisian won a close split decision. But I think an improved version of Martinez showed up and that’s why the fight was close. And I’m actually picking Parisian because it’s possible his striking could be a 60. Good value on Parisian at +165.
Chris’ Pick: Parisian by decision.
Matt Sayles vs Jordan Leavitt
- Matt Sayles
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Kyle Nelson. Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a 5-1 grappler, and knocked out a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Sayles has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Tools: Leavitt has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Sayles came into the UFC with a lot of hype. He’s lost a couple since then, but against quality fighters. He’s still got well rounded 55 tools with the potential to develop more. I was really underwhelmed by Leavitt in his last fight with Claudio Puelles. I was pretty close to grading his grappling a 50 with the way he was taken down and controlled for most of the 2nd half of the fight. I highly doubt Leavitt will be able to get this fight on the ground. Sayles should force Leavitt to trade strikes where Sayles will have a monster power advantage. I can’t believe this fight is a pick em. I’d have Sayles priced at -350 so either the market is really wrong or I am.
Chris’ Pick: Sayles by 2nd round knockout.