Jack Hermansson vs Sean Strickland
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Edmen Shahbazyan and Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Hermansson has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 11-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision over Tom Breese.
- Tools: Strickland has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
Interesting fight. I would have Strickland priced at -140 while the oddsmakers have it at -200. Which isn’t too far off. It’s interesting because both guys have ways they can win. Strickland should be able to get back up if taken down. But Hermansson’s signature tool is his ground and pound, and he has finishing ability in that position. He could legitimately knock Strickland out there. But after thinking that Hermansson’s striking was a 70 after that Jacare fight, Hermansson has proven over and over again, the striking is instead a 65. He got out struck by Jarod Cannonier then Marvin Vettori. He was even out struck by Edmen Shahbazyan. And Hermansson can be knocked out. So the most likely out come is that a good portion of this fight is on the feet and that Strickland eventually catches him. But there is some value in Hermansson at +160. He does have a way to win.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by 2nd round knockout.
Punahele Soriano vs Nick Maximov
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat a 7-3 striker.
- Tools: Soriano has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Nick Maximov
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Cody Brundage and an 11-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Maximov has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
For his age and grappling level, Maximov is an elite prospect. But Soriano is a tough matchup. Soriano lost for the first time in his career to Kyle Daukaus. But not because he got taken down and out grappled. He got out struck. Matter of fact, Daukaus tried taking Soriano down only once. Didn’t get close. Didn’t try again. It’s possible Soriano’s wrestling is a 65 but I have it as a 60 for now. Soriano did okay in the 1st round but got tired as the fight went on. That’s Maximov’s possible path to victory. Tire Maximov out, force him to grapple. But I think Soriano will force Maximov to be on the feet a bit longer than he’s used to and will eventually catch him. I’d price Soriano around -175, pretty close to what it is currently at -200.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by 2nd round knockout.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Carlston Harris
- Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler, a 6-1-2 wrestler, a well rounded 28-6 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Submitted Michel Prazares, Alex Oliveira, Jun Yong Park, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Tools: Rakhmonov has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 17-4
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Impa Kasanganay and an 8-1 striker. Submitted a 17-1 grappler. Beat Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Harris has near plus striking (65). He also has above wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I think the way this fight is priced reflects which fighter has gotten more of the hype. Right now, Shavkat is favored at -275. That’s pretty crazy. I’d have Harris priced as a slight -125 favorite. Rakhmonov is probably favored because people think he can take Harris down. But I just don’t think he’ll be able to. I know Prazeres has 55 wrestling. Rakhmonov took him down but he was able to get back up. Showed 60 wrestling but no evidence of it being better. And I’m convinced Harris has 60 wrestling with how he handled Kasanganay. On the striking front, I haven’t seen data or evidence showing Rakhmonov of having better than 60 striking. Data shows Rakhmonov out struck both by close to 10 significant strikes to 5. Not much striking. Whereas with Harris, his fight with Kasanganay went slightly longer on the feet and there’s more evidence of legit 65 striking. I could be wrong. But I think Harris has the ability to knock Rakhmonov out and with Harris at +210, it’s a very attractive bet.
Chris’ Pick: Harris by 2nd round knockout.
Brendan Allen vs Sam Alvey
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Punahele Soriano and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Allen has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Sam Alvey
- Age: 35
- UFC record: 10-11-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Wellington Turman.
- Key Draws: Fought Da Un Jung to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Prachnio.
- Tools: Alvey has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
The craziest thing about the Allen vs Chris Curtis fight isn’t the knockout. We knew he had power after he knocked out Phil Hawes. The thing that was really surprising was the Curtis slightly out struck Allen, landed more. So the question becomes: is Curtis really this good, way better than we thought? Or is Allen not as good as we thought. And I think it’s more of the former. Allen’s last fight before Curtis was with Soriano, who I know has 60 striking. And Allen out struck him. So I’m leaving his striking as a 65 grade, albeit with 55 power. With Alvey, he hasn’t won in 7 fights. Last win was a split decision over the now retired Gian Villante back in 2018. I really don’t see much of a path for Alvey here, unless Allen comes in with lost confidence. But even if Allen’s striking is more like a 60, he’s still going to land more than Alvey will.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by decision.
Bryan Battle vs Tresean Gore
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Battle has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tresean Gore
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 3-0
- Tools: Gore has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
There’s no way I’m betting this fight. Gore is too much of an unknown. He’s coming off an injury. Only 3 pro fights. Zero wins over any decent competition, except for the fights on TUF. But he was the favorite by a lot of people to win TUF. And I think the oddsmakers have this priced right with Gore at -125. Total coin flip for me, except I think Gore definitely has more power and that should win him the fight, as long as he doesn’t has out.
Chris’ Pick: Gore by 2nd round knockout.
Julian Erosa vs Steven Peterson
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Charles Jourdain and Sean Woodson.
- Tools: Erosa has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Steven Peterson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Brandon Davis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Bravo. Beat Chase Hooper.
- Tools: Peterson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I stand corrected with Erosa. He submitted Jourdain and the striking was close to equal. I started doubting Jourdain’s ability saying to myself, Erosa couldn’t possibly have elevated his game this much. Maybe I was too high on Jourdain. Then Jourdain completely out classes Andre Ewell. So to me, that was validation that Erosa is for real. And at -250, he’s one of my favorite bets on the card. There’s no way Petersen’s tools are better than 55s. 45 power. Peterson doesn’t really have the weapons to pull off a big upset here making Erosa a near lock in my opinion.
Chris’ Pick: Erosa by decision.
Miles Johns vs John Castaneda
- Miles Johns
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Johns has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- John Castaneda
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Tools: Castaneda has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
We might just have a prospect in Johns. He came into the UFC as a wrestler with power, but has really refined his striking technique. Took a big step forward in his last fight with Anderson dos Santos. Out struck him by over a 2 to 1 clip. But as impressive as that was, what Castaneda did to Eddie Wineland was even more impressive. There’s no way Wineland’s striking is less than a 55. I’m very confident in that. And Castaneda out struck him by a 2 to 1 clip. What’s crazy though is the line right now has Johns as a -250 favorite. What am I missing?? Maybe they think Castaneda has no wrestling. That’s probably the best explanation. But he does have wrestling and Castaneda has tremendous value at +200.
Chris’ Pick: Castaneda by decision.
Hakeem Dawodu vs Michael Trizano
- Hakeem Dawodu
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Danny Henry.
- Key Wins: Split decisions over Zubaira Tukhugov and Julio Arce.
- Tools: Dawodu has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Michael Trizano
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat Ludovit Klein. Split decision over Luis Pena
- Tools: Trizano has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
How you bet this fight all comes down to what you think of Ludovit Klein. The oddsmakers opened the line with Dawodu at -155. It’s because the majority of them think Klein has 65 striking. So when Trizano fought Klein and the striking was close to equal, they therefore think Trizano has 65 striking and could make this fight close, hence the -155 Dawodu price. But early on, we’re seeing most of the money go to the Dawodu side, probably because they’re in the same camp I’m in. Which is that it’s way too early to grade Klein’s striking a 65. To me, Trizano showed 60 striking against Grant Dawson and Luis Pena. And with Dawodu, it’s funny because I remember watching him fight Tukhugov and thinking it was close. But the data doesn’t show that. Dawodu didn’t win the striking exchanges by a ton, but he did outland him. Then Dawodu lost to Movsar Evloev because Dawodu’s wrestling is only a 60 and it’s the weak part of his game. Good thing Trizano only has 55 striking. I love to bet a fight like this. You have a guy like Dawodu, clearly has a superior tool. And his opponent doesn’t have any tools or threat to pull the upset. Even if Trizano’s wrestling is a little better than I thought, he still won’t be able to take Dawodu down. Trizano lacks KO power. And me thinking Trizano’s striking is a 60, I would have priced Dawodu at -450.
Chris’ Pick: Dawodu by decision.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Chidi Njokuani
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Beat Dalcha Lungiambula.
- Tools: Barriault has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 20-7
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Tools: Njokuani has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
After starting his UFC career 0-3, Barriault has really turned things around and is coming into his own. His nickname Power Bar suits him as his cardio is the best tool he brings to the table. But the biggest thing he’s improved on is his wrestling. Early in his career, he got taken down, lost. But his last opponent, a wrestler, in Dalcha Lungiambula, Barriault was able to neutralize it. I expect the first half of this fight with Njokuani to be close. The striking of both of these guys is close to equal. But I see Barriault having the goal of pushing Njokuani against the fence, tiring him out. Maybe getting a take down or two. And then win the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Barriault by decision.
Alexis Davis vs Julija Stoliarenko
- Alexis Davis
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 1-4 at 125 lbs. 7-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Beat Sabina Mazo. Split decision over Liz Carmouche.
- Tools: Davis has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Julija Stoliarenko
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-5-2
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Stoliarenko has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
I really don’t see a path for Stoliarenko to win here. Davis is a little similar to Stoliarenko’s last opponent Julia Avila. Except Davis has better grappling. Zero chance she’s able to take Davis down. Which is a shame because Stoliarenko is a decent prospect, but she’s been dealt some really tough opponents. For Davis, she had a 2 year lay off. Fought in 2019, didn’t come back until February 2021 when she upset Sabina Mazo. Then proved her improved striking was for real in nearly upsetting Pannie Kianzad. Davis should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Davis by decision.
Danilo Marques vs Jailton Almeida
- Danilo Marques
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Mike Rodriguez.
- Tools: Marques has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-0 wrestler and a 19-4 wrestler.
- Tools: Almieda has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
I’m really looking forward to this fight as these guys are two of the better prospects at 205 lbs. Both probably have futures of plus 70 grappling. But I see the grappling cancelling out here. Which is a problem for Marques. Almeida has a big reach. He has 14 wins and amazingly, all 14 have been finishes. 9 submissions. 5 KOs. Almeida will use his reach. Fight behind his jab. I think the average price of Almeida at -325 is fair.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 2nd round knockout.
Philip Rowe vs Jason Witt
- Philip Rowe
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Orion Cosce and a 7-1 grappler.
- Tools: Rowe has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jason Witt
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 19-7
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Matt Semelsberger and a 6-3 striker. Submitted by a 24-10 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Majority decision over Bryan Barberena.
- Tools: Witt has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
This fight could be really similar to Rowe’s last matchup with Orion Cosce, also a wrestler. Witt will probably be able to take Rowe down a couple times. And although Witt has gotten tons better at Glory MMA, his fatal flaw is his lack of durability. He’s got a 2-2 UFC record so far and 2 of his losses have been him getting knocked out in less than 1 minute. Both losses. Might not happen in the 1st round of this fight, but Witt is eventually going to get tired of struggling so much to take Rowe down, that eventually this fight will play out more on the feet and that’s when Witt will be in the danger zone.
Chris’ Pick: Rowe by 1st round knockout.
Denys Bondar vs Malcolm Gordon
- Denys Bondar
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Bondar has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Malcolm Gordon
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by an 11-8 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 4-0 grappler, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Francisco Figueiredo, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Gordon has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Bondar opens up as a big -250 favorite but I really disagree with the price. I think Bondar should be more like -125. This is close to a coin flip for me. I watched Bondar take on a 7-1 grappler and Bondar struggled in the 1st round. Got the submission win in the 2nd, but his opponent gassing out was probably a factor. Gordon seemed improved in his last fight and I’m confident grading his grappling a 60. This is probably a stand up fight and I’ll give Bondar a slight edge. But there’s definitely some value on Gordon at +200.
Chris’ Pick: Bondar by split decision.