Adesanya vs Whittaker 2, Lewis vs Tuivasa, Cannonier vs Brunson Fight Picks – UFC 271 – February 12, 2022

Published on by Chris Schweppe

Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker

  • Israel Adesanya
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 10-0 at 185 lbs. 10-1 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
  • Tools: Adesanya has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Robert Whittaker
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 11-1 at 185 lbs.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice), Jared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
  • Tools: Whittaker has plus plus striking paired with plus power (80-70). He also has plus wrestling (70).

To me, this fight is the narrative vs the data. The narrative would be, Adesanya won the 1st fight easy. 2nd round KO. He has better striking. And he won the 1st fight, so the odds of him winning the rematch are high. Thus, the market has Adesanya sitting as a -265 favorite. But what does the data say? It says that the Adesanya vs Vettori fight was very, very close. It says the striking between Vettori and Adesanya was close to equal. Either Vettori has 70 striking or 75 striking, but there’s no evidence that says Adesanya’s striking is better than a 75. Adesanya was also repeatedly taken down and was controlled for over 6 minutes total in the fight. Adesanya got up, but Vettori, who has 70 grappling, got the better of it. Now, what does the data say about Whittaker’s tools? His last fight was with Gastelum. I have his striking at a 70, power a 60, wrestling a 65. Well, the 3 rounds that the fight was mostly on the feet, Whittaker out struck Gastelum by over a 2 to 1 clip. Two of the rounds were close to a 3 to 1 clip. For Whittaker to outstrike someone with 70 striking by that much, I have to grade Whittaker with 80 grade striking. And then 2 of the rounds, Whittaker chose to take Gastelum down and was able to control him for most of the round. The first round, Gastelum was able to get up towards the end of the round. The 5th, Gastelum didn’t get up at all, but maybe that had to do with him being out of gas. So I now have Whittaker’s wrestling at a 70, but there’s an argument for it now being a 75 tool. So I know what the narrative is. I know what the public perception says. But the data says something different. It says Whittaker has really improved, so much that on paper, he should win this fight. I think he’s going to mix and match take downs. Saw the success Jan Blachowicz and Vettori had in taking him down. And if Whittaker’s wrestling is a 75, he might be able to keep Adesanya on the ground for a lot of the fight. But I do think that as long as Whittaker fights the way he normally does and isn’t too aggressive like he was in their first fight, Whittaker should out strike Adesanya.

Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by decision.

Derrick Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa

  • Derrick Lewis
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 17-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
  • Tools: Lewis has above average striking paired with plus plus power (60-80). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Tai Tuivasa
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 7-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski. 
  • Tools: Tuivasa has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).

Lewis is a very unique fighter. He’s the fighter in the UFC that has 60 striking and 80 power. He’s changed his approach where he’s okay getting out struck. He’ll strike in short bursts and sell out for power. And it’s been working out pretty well for him, minus his fight with Ciryl Gane. The main challenge Tuivasa will bring to the table is he’s going to test Lewis’ durability. Because Tuivasa will land more. He really improved his last fight with Sakai. He came in to that fight with 65 striking and although they didn’t trade that much at distance, Tuivasa still out landed Sakai enough for me to upgrade his striking to a 70. So I expect Tuivasa to land more than Lewis. Tuivasa has 70 power though. And Lewis can be knocked out if you land enough. Gane did it. Junior dos Santos did back in 2019. Mark Hunt did it back in 2017. But what the dos Santos and Hunt fight have in common is that Lewis gassing out played a big part in those finishes. The Gane fight is unique. After watching Gane fight Francis Ngannou, I think Gane will become champion after he works on his wrestling a bit. He has 80 striking. Lewis’ problem in that fight is he just couldn’t tough Gane. And you can’t knock out what you can’t touch. But Lewis doesn’t really gas out anymore. And Lewis will have a 4 inch reach advantage. That means Tuivasa will have to close the distance. Enter the danger zone to land on Lewis. And I just think over the course of 3 rounds and them trading, Lewis just has so much more power. Would I bet on it? No way. Lewis at -200? That’s crazy. Tuivasa definitely has some value at +160. Lewis can be knocked out and Tuivasa has the power to do it.

Chris’ Pick: Lewis by 1st round knockout.

Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson

  • Jared Cannonier
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 4-1 at 185 lbs. 7-5 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Kelvin Gastelum.
  • Tools: Cannonier has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
  • Derek Brunson
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 14-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Darren Till. Knocked out Edmen Shahbazyan and Uriah Hall. Beat Kevin Holland, Ian Heinisch, and Elias Theodorou.
  • Tools: Brunson has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).

Don’t get wrong. Cannonier has an edge to win this fight. He’s got better striking and more power. And his cardio has passed the test. He went 5 tough rounds with Kelvin Gastelum. So I doubt he gasses in a 3 round fight. But I’m not going to bet Cannonier because Brunson is the type of guy that doesn’t care if a fight’s boring. Especially when there’s a possible title shot on the line. He’s going to spend every minute of the fight trying to wrestle Cannonier. Brunson should get some take downs. But I am picking Cannonier because 3 of Brunson’s last 4 losses have been by KO. He can be knocked out. I think that’s how Cannonier gets it done.

Chris’ Pick: Cannonier by 2nd round knockout.

Renato Moicano vs Alexander Hernandez

  • Renato Moicano
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 2-1 at 155 lbs. 7-4 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jai Herbert and Cub Swanson. Beat Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
  • Tools: Moicano has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
  • Alexander Hernandez
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 5-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Francisco Trinaldo.
  • Tools: Hernandez has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65). 

Close fight. And another fight I disagree with oddsmakers. I would’ve priced Hernandez as a -160 favorite, but Moicano is priced as a -175 favorite. They must think Moicano has 70 striking. I don’t agree with that though. Rafael Fiziev out struck Moicano. And when they were on the feet, Jai Herbert out landed Moicano too. I have Moicano at 65 striking. And the thing with Moicano is he can be knocked out. In 3 of Moicano’s last 5 fights, he was knocked out. Meanwhile Hernandez has unlocked the power in his hands. Hernandez has 13 pro wins. 6 KOs. But in last 2 wins were by KO. I think the striking will be close to even in this fight until Hernandez catches him.

Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 2nd round knockout.

Bobby Green vs Nasrat Haqparast

  • Bobby Green
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 7-7-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Al Iaquinta. Beat Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
  • Tools: Green has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
  • Nasrat Haqparast  
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 5-3
  • Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat Rafa Garcia and Marc Diakiese. 
  • Tools: Haqparast has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

The data is what it is and sometimes it goes against narratives. This statement goes against the narrative, but Green actually out struck Rafael Fiziev. Landed more. Fiziev won the fight because he had more power and did more damage, but Green did out land. And it’s tough to take too much out of the Iaquinta win because it looks like that was Iaquinta’s retirement fight, hadn’t fought in 2 years, and who knows where his tools were at, but I do know how good Fiziev is and rewatching that fight, I have to grade Green with 70 striking, even if part of me is saying, this is Bobby Green here. But he’s absolutely improved that much. And when Haqparast fought Hooker, I couldn’t believe the odds were so close. Lots of smart people were picking Haqparast to win. But I know Hooker’s striking is a 70. And what happened? Hooker out struck Haqparast by almost a 2 to 1 clip. The fight wasn’t close at all. Based on how the betting public thinks of Haqparast, I feel myself wanting to grade his striking a 65, but I can’t because the data doesn’t back that up. Right now, Green is favored at -155 and that’s a bargain. I’d price Green at -225. It’s possible Haqparast’s striking is a 65. And if that’s true, it’s possible Haqparast will have more power. But the very likely outcome is Green being faster, has better cardio, and will really out land Haqparast to pick up the win.

Chris’ Pick: Haqparast by decision.

Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa

  • Andrei Arlovski
  • Age: 42
  • UFC Record: 11-10 in his 2nd stint.
  • Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
  • Key Wins: Beat Carlos Felipe, Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell.
  • Tools: Arlovski has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Jared Vanderaa
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 12-6
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter. Beat Justin Tafa.
  • Tools: Vanderaa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Despite the 2-2 UFC record so far, Vanderaa shows a lot of promise. It just so happened that he was matched up with 2 of the best wrestlers in the division in Alexandr Romanov and Serghei Spivac. Arlovski here is a winnable matchup. It’ll be a stand up fight. And Vanderaa’s win over Tafa shows what he’s capable of when he out struck Tafa at nearly a 2 to 1 clip. I’m confident in grading Arlovski’s striking a 60. I’m decently confident in Vanderaa’s being a 65. Both guys go for volume. But the biggest thing that stands out to me is Vanderaa being a +180 underdog. Hello value. That line is super off. Even if you think Vanderaa’s striking is a 60, the line should be in the pick em territory.

Chris’ Pick: Vanderaa by decision.

Casey O’Neill vs Roxanne Modafferi

  • Casey O’Neill
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Antonina Shevchenko and Shana Dobson. Beat a 4-1 striker.
  • Tools: O’Neill has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus wrestling (70).
  • Roxanne Modafferi
  • Age: 39
  • UFC Record: 6-7 in her 2nd UFC stint.
  • Key Wins: Beat Andrea Lee and Maycee Barber. Split decision win over Antonina Shevchenko.
  • Tools: Modafferi has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus wrestling (65).

For bettors, I really think this fight is a trap. I thought Modafferi was going to get steamrolled and finished quick by Taila Santos. But Modefferi looked slightly improved in the fight. Most times when she was taken down, she got back up. And Modafferi’s durability tested Santos’ cardio, which held up. This fight with O’Neill will be similar. Except Santos’ striking is way better. I’ve said this fight could be a trap because O’Neill is a -360 favorite right now. That’s crazy. I would have O’Neill at -150. It’s possible O’Neill’s wrestling is more like a 65 and if that’s the case, then this could be a competitive fight because I have both fighter’s striking graded the same. Modafferi’s durability is a known quantity. But how will O’Neill react if she gets close to a finish? Will she empty the gas tank? How will her cardio look in the 3rd round? I’m not saying Modafferi is going to win, I’m just saying this is a way more competitive fight than people think and there’s absolutely value on Modafferi at +280. She’s a live underdog.

Chris’ Pick: O’Neill by decision.

Kyler Phillips vs Marcelo Rojo

  • Kyler Phillips
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler.  Beat Yadong Song and an 8-1 striker.
  • Tools: Phillips has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
  • Marcelo Rojo
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 16-7
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 striker. Knocked out an 8-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Rojo has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

I’m very close to grading Phillips striking a 70, but the reality is that cardio is part of that equation. Phillips always starts strong but then gasses out towards the end of the fight. So I have the tool as a 65 for now. But I do know that Rojo’s striking is no better than a 60, as Charles Jourdain, who has 65 striking was able to out land Rojo. Phillips striking is at least a 65. So there’s that path to victory. Plus! Phillips might be able to win the fight by taking Rojo down and controlling him on the ground. Two legit paths to win and Phillips is only -325. The price is a little chalky, but these are the types of favorites I love to bet on.

Chris’ Pick: Phillips by 2nd round knockout.

Carlos Ulberg vs Fabio Cherant

  • Carlos Ulberg
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 3-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a 5-1 grappler.
  • Tools: Ulberg has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Fabio Cherant
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 7-3
  • UFC Record: 0-3
  • Tools: Cherant has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I give Cherant a lot of credit. He improved a lot in his last fight with William Knight, despite getting knocked out. Matter of fact, up until the knock out, he was out striking Knight. And he has a very real chance of winning this fight. Most books have Ulberg around -200, but I would price Ulberg around -150. See, Ulberg, he had a very unique fight with Kennedy Nzechukwu. He out struck Nzechukwu by a 2 to 1 clip in the 1st. Out struck Nzechukwu by a decent clip in the 2nd. Then Ulberg got knocked out. Why? Because Ulberg had an adrenaline dump in the 1st round. Gassed himself out bad. And it’s possible it happens again in this fight. Cherant has been knocked out in the UFC twice now. Ulberg knows he can win there. He’s going to be aggressive in the first. I’m picking Ulberg to get it done. But Cherant is very live dog because if Ulberg can’t get him out of there in the 1st, I see Cherant taking over the fight in the 2nd.

Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by 1st round knockout.

Ronnie Lawrence vs Leomana Martinez

  • Ronnie Lawrence
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Cachero.
  • Tools: Lawrence has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Leomana Martinez
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler and a 3-0 wrestler. Split decision over Guido Cannetti.
  • Tools: Martinez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I was really surprised when Lawrence fought Cachero, that he was only a -165 favorite. Cachero has 55 wrestling and it shows that the betting public thought the wrestling was his only path to victory and not a lock he could win that way. But Lawrence lived up to the hype, easily took Cachero down over and over again. And also out struck Cachero on the feet as well. But Martinez didn’t live up to the hype as much. He went into his last fight with Cannetti as a -300 favorite. Bettors thought Martinez would have the better striking. Thought he’d have 60 striking vs Cannetti’s 55 striking. But instead the striking turned out to be close to equal and Martinez squeaked out a split decision win. Now Lawrence is priced more accurately. As I’m writing this, it’s about a month away from the fight, but Lawrence can be had at -240. That’s still light. I’d have Lawrence at -325. Lawrence’s wrestling, pace, and cardio will be too much.

Chris’ Pick: Lawrence by decision.

Jacob Malkoun vs AJ Dobson

  • Jacob Malkoun
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Beat Abdul Razak Alhassan
  • Tools: Malkoun has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • AJ Dobson
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 6-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a 4-1 striker.
  • Tools: Dobson has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

There’s some disagreement over the grades between the oddsmakers and myself. I’d have Malkoun priced as a -175 favorite. But most books actually have Malkoun as the underdog, around +125. They probably think Dobson has 60 striking and 60 wrestling based on what he did to Hashem Arkhagha on The Contender. I think where we disagree is I thought Arkhagha has well rounded, average 50 tools. I wasn’t impressed with him going into The Contender and wasn’t impressed with him vs Dodson. Arkhagha had a 6-0 record and his only quality win was submitting a 3-0 striker. The rest of the wins were over cans. Anyway, I could be wrong. We’ll see. I’m confident in where I’ve graded Malkoun. He has title contender potential. He took down a 55 wrestler in Abdul Razak Alhassan and controlled him the whole fight. And amazingly, when the fight was on the feet, the striking was close to equal, albeit with 50 power for Malkoun. I’m going to place a smaller bet on Malkoun, a sprinkle. He should be able to win by taking Dobson down, but if he can’t, I still think Malkoun will land more shots. Ultimately, Dobson blitzes a lot in the 1st. He knows Phil Hawes knocked Malkoun out in the 1st. I see him blitzing hard in the 1st and then gassing out for the rest of the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by decision.

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Sergey Morozov

  • Douglas Silva de Andrade
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 5-4
  • Key Wins: Beat Marlon Vera.
  • Tools: de Andrade has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
  • Sergey Morozov
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 17-5
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and a 5-0-1 wrestler. Beat Khalid Taha, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 11-3 wrestler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Morozov has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).

Real coin flip fight. Morozov isn’t afraid to use his wrestling and grapple all fight. I can see him doing that and having success. Morozov also has more power. But Silva de Andrade should land more. A lot of the outcome of this fight depends on how much the judges value grappling and control. They might look to see that Silva de Andrade has landed more and give him the fight even if Morozov has him on the ground most of the time. But I will say Morozov has no business being a -200 favorite. If you like betting underdogs in toss up fights, Silva de Andrade at +160 is for you.

Chris’ Pick: Silva de Andrade by split decision.

Jeremiah Wells vs Mike Diamond

  • Jeremiah Wells
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 9-2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Warlley Alves and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler.
  • Tools: Wells has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
  • Mike Diamond
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker.
  • Tools: Mathetha has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

For me, this is an impossible fight to bet. Because “Blood Diamond” Mathetha is too much of an unknown. There’s not much footage of him out there. I know he’s a kickboxing world champion. I know he trains with Israel Adesanya at City Kickboxing. I watched a short highlight of him grappling a fighter with a 0-0 record, making his pro debut. Mathetha got the choke. But this fight was almost 4 years ago in 2018! Mathetha hasn’t fought in 2 years. My educated guess is nobody wants to fight him on the regional scene. So who knows how good his wrestling is. But the reality is that any fighter who makes his UFC debut with only 3 or 4 pro fights has a very, very high ceiling and is really good. I’m projecting his wrestling will be a 55. With Wells, who I still think is a bit of an unknown commodity, he upset Warlley Alves in his debut. Looks like he has 60 striking. His striking with Alves was close to equal. But I have to project big time on this fight. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’d price Wells at -150 because I think he has more power and almost for sure, better wrestling.

Chris’ Pick: Wells by decision.

William Knight vs Maxim Grishin

  • William Knight
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 5-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Fabio Cherant and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Alonzo Menifield and Aleksa Camur.
  • Tools: Knight has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Maxim Grishin
  • Age: 37
  • Pro Record: 31-9-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1 at 205 lbs. 1-2 overall.
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a 7-3 striker.
  • Key Draws: Fought Jordan Johnson and an 11-4 striker to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker and a 7-1 Alexander Volkov, back in 2010. Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 33-10-1 fighter, a 15-3 grappler, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Johnson, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter.
  • Tools: Grishin has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).

Grishin’s very, very close loss to Dustin Jacoby has sure aged well. He fought Jacoby back in February 2021. Since then, Jacoby has proved his striking is a 65. Well, Grishin actually out struck Jacoby. Wasn’t by a lot, but Grishin landed more strikes, Jacoby won because he has more power and did more damage. It’s also important to note one of Grishin’s UFC losses was to contender Marcin Tybura at heavyweight. No shame there. But this fight will come down to Grishin’s durability. Ed Herman pulls out. In steps a very different opponent in Knight. He’s fighting on about 2 week’s notice. Knight’s cardio looked improved in the Menifield fight, but it’s still average if best. So both have legit paths to victory. Knight by KO. And Grishin by surviving, putting a pace on Knight, and taking over in the 2nd half of the fight. Odds haven’t opened yet. I’d price Knight at -150. But I’m not going to bet Knight because it’s almost impossible to predict how much cardio a fighter has or how they use their gas tank throughout the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Knight by 1st round knockout.

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