Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gleison Tibau. Submitted Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Tools: Makhachev has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus plus grappling (75).
- Bobby Green
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-7-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Tools: Green has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
What Makhachev did to Hooker, was very impressive. I picked Hooker to win. I thought he’d be able to get back up. But he got caught in a submission and couldn’t get out. It happens. But I’m not ready to give Makhachev top of the scale 80 grappling. The Hooker fight was a 3 minute sample. The fight before that, Makhachev fought a 65 grappler in Moises. And Moises did offer some resistance. He clearly lost, especially in the 2nd half of the fight. But it wasn’t a shutout either. Green has amazingly improved his striking to a 70, albeit with 60 power. The 70 striking is undisputed. He actually landed more strikes in his fight with Rafael Fiziev. And the Haqparast fight, the betting public priced Green as a -150 favorite. Meaning they thought Haqparast had 65 striking. But Green out struck him by over a 2 to 1 clip. Out classed him. I think Haqparast has 60 striking, but could it be possible that Green’s striking is better than a 70? Maybe. But this fight comes down to how good Green’s wrestling is. The last time Green took on a grappler was a year and a half ago in the Moises fight. Green took Moises down a couple times, but Moises got back up shortly after that. But Green’s game isn’t to impose the wrestling, it’s more to mix it in. Could Green’s wrestling be a 70? It’s possible. Will Green be able to get back up after being taken down? Maybe. Can he keep getting back up for 5 rounds against a fighter on a full camp, cutting the normal amount of weight this week? Maybe. Probably not. But maybe. I’m picking Makhachev because he can grind for all 5 rounds, he doesn’t care if the fight is boring. He’ll have a bigger gas tank than Green. He’s very likely to win. Would I lay -900 on Makhachev? Noooooo way haha. I want none of that risk. I’m tempted to put a small sprinkle on Green at +550, but the reality is that Green is a volume guy, has 60 power. For Green to win, he’d have to keep a good portion of this fight on the feet and land a lot more strikes, so I’m probably going to sit this one out.
Chris’ Pick: Makhachev by decision.
Wellington Turman vs Misha Cirkunov
- Wellington Turman
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 striker and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Turman has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Misha Cirkunov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute, Nikita Krylov, and Ion Cutelaba.
- Tools: Cirkunov has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus grappling (70).
I love this pick. So much because of the price. Books opened with Cirkunov as a -125 favorite. That’s way off. Cirkunov’s grappling is a 70. Turman’s wrestling is a 60. Means Cirkunov will be able to take Turman down and probably suibmit him there. Cirkunov is like Rodolfo Vieira, but with way better cardio. I was also surprised to see Cirkunov improve his striking in his last fight with Jotko. It’s a borderline 65 now. I don’t really see any way for Turman to win here. Just like Jotko, Turman doesn’t really have KO power. I would’ve priced Cirkunov at -300. No pick is a lock, but for me, I’m viewing this as one of the safest bets on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Cirkunov by 2nd round submission.
Priscila Cachoeira vs Ji Yeon Kim
- Priscila Cachoeira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gina Mazany and Shana Dobson.
- Tools: Cachoeira has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ji Yeon Kim
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nadia Kassem. Split decision over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian.
- Tools: Kim has above average striking (60). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Interesting fight. Close fight. You could say Kim should be the favorite because the striking should be close to equal but Kim will probably have a slight wrestling advantage. Projecting, she could have a cardio advantage. Wear Cachoeira down in the clinch, taking her down a couple times. Tire her out. But Cachoeira is also the more likely of the two to have striking that’s closer to 65. More power. So to me this is a coin flip and Cachoeira at +155 could have some value if you like betting plus money at odds close to 50%.
Chris’ Pick: Kim by decision.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Christos Giagos and a 15-5 striker. Beat Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Tsarukyan has near plus striking (65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Joel Alvarez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key WIns: Submitted Alexander Yakovlev, Joseph Duffy, a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out Thiago Moises and a 12-4 striker.
- Tools: Alvarez has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
To me, this is a main event level matchup. Two prospects that I’m confident will fight for the title one day. Both. They’re that good. The moment I saw Tsarukyan make his UFC debut on short notice against Islam Makhachev, I knew how good he was. And Alvarez, wow, he took such a giant leap in his striking the past year. I had his striking graded a 60 going into the Moises fight. And I wasn’t alone! Moises was a -300 favorite due to almost everyone thinking Moises would have better stand up. But Alvarez dominated the striking, so much that I’m questioning whether Moises striking is more like a 60. But the thing I’m really amazed by is the line. Wow. Tsarukyan as a -360 favorite? That’s crazy. Oddsmakers must Tsarukyan can win by taking Alvarez down and controlling him. But for that to happen, Tsarukyan’s wrestling would have to be a 75, which I highly doubt, or Alvarez’s grappling would have to be a 60, which I highly doubt. Plus, if Tsarukyan takes Alvarez down, he’s going to be in danger the whole time with Alvarez throwing up submissions. I’m also decently confident Alvarez’s striking is better. I would actually price Alvarez a -170 favorite, so either I’m very wrong or the oddsmakers are.
Chris’ Pick: Alvarez by decision.
Gregory Rodrigues vs Armen Petrosyan
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Tools: Rodrigues has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Petrosyan has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
They’re really throwing Petrosyan into the deep end here. Elite prospect. Reminds me of Edmen Shahbazyan. But look, go watch Rodrigues’ last fight. Takes on a 60 wrestler in Park. And proceeds to beat Park where he’s strongest. Taking him down again and again showing superior skill. Rodrigues is just way too much, too soon when it comes to the grappling. Part of me feels like grading Petrosyan’s wrestling a 55 is generous. It could be a 50. Whereas I’m confident where I’m grading Rodrigues wrestling. Rodrigues at -190 is about right. I’d price him at -200.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 2nd round submission.
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Zhu Rong
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Roosevelt Roberts and a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Tools: Bahamondes has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Zhu Rong
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 18-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a well rounded 15-5 fighter. Submitted a 19-4 grappler.
- Tools: Zhu has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Bahamondes looks to be a special prospect. For him to completely out class a quality fighter in Roberts, out striking him by close to a 2 to 1 clip is very rare. It’s even possible Bahamondes’ striking could be a 70 because I had Roberts as a 60 striker. Zhu also looked really good in his last fight, really relied on improved wrestling. But I don’t think it’s better than a 55. Not good enough to take Bahamondes down. If Roberts wasn’t able to, I don’t see Zhu having success. And I really don’t see a path for Zhu winning. The books have opened Bahamondes as a -275 favorite. That’s a bargain. I think fair value for Bahamondes is -400.
Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by 2nd round knockout.
Josiane Nunes vs Ramona Pascual
- Josiane Nunes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bea Malecki, a 6-1 striker, a 3-0 grappler.
- Tools: Nunes has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ramona Pascual
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-2
- Tools: Pascual has striking that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average wrestling (45).
Nunes should win this fight. Should have the better striking. But I just can’t bet on her. This fight has upset alert written all over it. Pascual could be really good. I say good because she’s never fought anybody. And the 2 losses she has were against natural featherweights. She’s taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. But they’re fighting at 145 lbs. Both women will have big power. That’s usually how a lot of upsets happen. Knockouts. I’m picking Nunes, she’s more likely to win, but Pascual is absolutely a live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Nunes by 2nd round knockout.
Fares Ziam vs Terrance McKinney
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini.
- Tools: Ziam has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler.
- Tools: McKinney has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
McKinney is a big wild card because we really don’t truly know how good his striking is. He fought Sean Woodson on The Contender. Striking was close to equal, but it was 5 strikes to 4. Fight was mostly McKinney controlling Woodson on the ground. Then McKinney took on Frevola and knocked him out in 7 seconds. So his striking could be a 65, but I have it as a 60 for now. I’ve also upgraded Ziam’s wrestling to a 60 so this should be a stand up fight. The books opened Ziam as a -125 favorite and I think that’s about right. Ziam is most likely to win, but it’s a very slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.
Jonathan Martinez vs Alejandro Perez
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Thomas Almeida. Beat Zviad Lavishvili.
- Tools: Martinez has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Alejandro Perez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-4 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat Jose Quinonez and Eddie Wineland.
- Tools: Perez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I plan to bet on Martinez. He opens at -200. That price is fair. I’d have him at -225. He showed improved wrestling against Zviad Lazishvili, who I think has 60 wrestling. Martinez was able to stuff all 6 take downs. And Martinez’s striking is very close to a 65. With Perez, he took on Johnny Eduardo last time out. I had Eduardo with 55 striking. He slightly out struck Perez. Made me think Eduardo’s striking is a borderline 60. Which means I’m confident in Perez’s striking being a 55. Because there’s no way Eduardo’s striking is close to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Micheal Gillmore
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sasha Palatnikov and a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Brahimaj has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Micheal Gillmore
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 6-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Gillmore has striking that’s a little above average paired with power that’s fringe average (55-45). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
I feel sorry for Gillmore. He was matched up originally against Johnny Parsons, a striker. A winnable fight. But Parsons pulls out and in steps Brahimaj. Bad break. Gillmore lost his UFC debut to Andre Petroski. Did fine in the stand up, but lost because Petroski was able to take him down and control him. And there’s a really good chance, Brahimaj’s grappling is better than Petroski. Yes, Brahimaj lost his last fight to Court McGee. It didn’t look good. But I need to finally give McGee his due. Incredibly, he’s improved. That fight was all about McGee being really good vs Brahimaj not being as good as we thought.
Chris’ Pick: Brahimaj by 1st round submission.
Victor Altamirano vs Carlos Hernandez
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Tools: Altamirano has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average striking (55-45). He also has average grappling (50).
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 3-1 striker. Split decision over Daniel Barez.
- Tools: Hernandez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
I wasn’t that impressed with Altamirano on The Contender. I thought Altamirano lost. Was taken down over and over again. He’s mainly a striker. Which works for Hernandez who’s a striker as well. But Hernandez’s win was way, way more impressive beating a top prospect in Daniel Barez. What I don’t get is the line. The oddsmakers have opened this fight as a pick em which means they think the striking here will be close to equal. I don’t agree at all. I’m confident Barez has 55 striking. Hernandez out landed him by a decent amount. 60 striking. And I’m confident that Altamirano’s Contender opponent Carlos Candelario has 50 striking. Which means Altamirano has 55 striking. I’d actually price Hernandez at -300, so getting him at a pick em price is a real bargain.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.