Santos vs Ankalaev, Moraes vs Yadong, Yusuff vs Caceres Fight Picks, March 12, 2022 - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev

Thiago Santos
Age: 38
UFC Record: 5-3 at 205 lbs.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders. Beat Johnny Walker.
Tools: Santos has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).

Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 29
UFC Record: 7-1
Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Nikita Krylov and Klidson Abreu.
Tools: Ankalaev has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus plus wrestling (75).

It took Santos over 2 years, but after his last fight with Walker, his tools are finally back to where they were before his Jon Jones fight. The fight with Walker was close, striking close to equal, judges said he won. Before that, Santos fought Aleksandar Rakic and proved his wrestling is back to a 70. But unfortunately for him, he’s now matched up with a special prospect. A guy in Ankalaev, who should really be undefeated, if not for getting submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight. Ankalaev is coming off the best performance of his career. He proved he had 75 wrestling when he took down and controlled a 65 grappler in Krylov. But his striking was more of a question to me. Was it a 65? Was it a 70? Before his Oezdemir fight, I thought, okay, now we’re going to see where the striking is at. Because I’m confident Oezdemir has 70 striking. And what did Ankalaev do? Out struck Oezdemir by a decent margin. Now he’s got 75 striking to go along with 75 wrestling. That’s a problem. I see Ankalaev being smart, using his range. Keeping Santos at distance. Frustrating him. Only chance Santos has here is to land a KO, but Ankalaev can be hard to hit. Ankalaev opens at -450 which is a bit heavier than I’d like. I would’ve priced him at -325. But he’s still very likely to win and am hoping the line comes down a little bit so I can feel better about betting on him.

Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by decision.

Marlon Moraes vs Yadong Song

Marlon Moraes
Age: 32
UFC Record: 5-4
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao.
Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. Submitted Assuncao in a rematch.
Tools: Moraes has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).

Yadong Song
Age: 24
UFC Record: 7-1-1
Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
Tools: Yadong has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).

The thing that we’ve learned about Moraes is that he’s really a 1 round fighter. He looks like a contender in the 1st. That’s how he got his title shot. He beat Henry Cejudo in the 1st round of their title fight. He almost knocked out Merab Dvalishvili in the 1st. But if he doesn’t get the job done, he’s in trouble. Not only did Merab survive in the 1st, he started taking over before the 1st was even over. Moraes emptied the gas tank trying to get the KO. And his cardio was done 3 minutes into the fight. All that said, Yadong just has to make it past the 1st without getting knocked out. Past that, it should be all him. When he was matched up with Kenney, I thought Yadong’s striking going into that fight was a 65. And I know now that Kenney had 70 striking. Despite the judges thinking the fight was close, giving him a split decision win, Yadong clearly out struck Kenney. Enough for me to elevate his striking grade to a 75. Which is a crazy for a fighter that’s only 24 years old. Then, his last fight with Arce, with 65 striking. Line closed with him only being a -135 favorite. Maybe the betting public thought Yadong’s striking was a 70 or Arce’s striking was a 70. But Yadong out landed him 3 to 1 in this 1st round. Out landed him by a little bit in the 2nd, then got the KO. Oddsmakers have opened Yadong as a -300 favorite. I would price Yadong at -375. There’s margin here guys. Like I could be a little off on Moraes, maybe his striking and cardio bounces back to a 70. Or maybe I’m a bit bullish on Yadong and his striking is a 70. But both of those things being true is slim. For Moraes to get the KO, he has to land strikes and he’s just not going to land as much. I really like Yadong here.

Chris’ Pick: Yadong by 2nd round knockout.

Sodiq Yusuff vs Alex Caceres

Sodiq Yusuff
Age: 28
UFC Record: 5-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez. Beat Andre Fili and Mike Davis.
Tools: Yusuff has near plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).

Alex Caceres
Age: 33
UFC Record: 14-10
Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
Key Wins: Submitted Seung Woo Choi. Beat Chase Hooper and Kevin Croom.
Tools: Caceres has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average grappling (60).

The narrative on Caceres last fight is all wrong. The commentators thought that Choi out struck Caceres in the 1st round. The live odds on Draft Kings thought the same too as they priced Choi at -800 at the start of the 2nd round. But the data paints a different picture. Caceres actually landed more significant strikes in the 1st. Striking was close in the 2nd, but then Caceres sunk the rear naked choke and it didn’t matter. My point is that 24 UFC fights into his career, Caceres has improved his striking to a 65, albeit with 55 power. And despite the L on Yusuff’s record, I thought he beat Arnold Allen. But he did prove once and for all his striking is a 70. I thought that might be the case after he out struck Andre Fili in the 1st and 2nd rounds of their fight. But he left no doubt after the Allen fight. But there is a cavaet to his 70 striking. He absolutely slows down in the 3rd round. He’s done this now two fights in a row. So the obvious plan for Caceres here is to put a heavy pace on and tire Yusuff out. So even though Caceres has a path to win, I’m still confident in picking Yusuff because he’ll have a monster power advantage. And even if he doesn’t get the KO in the first 2 rounds, he only has to win 2 of the 3 rounds to win the fight. I would price Yusuff at -225.

Chris’ Pick: Yusuff by 2nd round knockout.

Khalil Rountree vs Karl Roberson

Khalil Rountree
Age: 31
UFC Record: 6-6
Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
Key Wins: Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas, Paul Craig, and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders.
Tools: Rountree has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Karl Roberson
Age: 31
UFC Record: 5-3 at 185 lbs.
Key Losses: Submitted by Cezar Ferreira.
Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann. Submitted Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov.
Tools: Roberson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

Roberson finally gets a break from fighting grapplers. But winning here still won’t be any easier for him. Rountree looked really good in his last fight. The best he’s looked since his win over Anders. And he won’t have to worry about the ground game here. Neither guy will. Pure kick boxing matchup. And look, Modestas Bukauskas is really good. The line closed with him as a -170 favorite to beat Rountree for a reason. I had Bukauskas with 65 striking. 1st round, Rountree out lands him 2 to 1. Next round is a little closer, but Rountree still landed more. Which means Rountree’s striking is at least a 65. Maybe a 70. Could be. But I have him as a 65 for now. With Roberson, I’m decently confident his striking is a 60, but Rountree will have too big a power advantage for Roberson to overcome. I think a fair price for Rountree would be -275.

Chris’ Pick: Rountree by 1st round knockout.

Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney

Drew Dober
Age: 33
UFC Record: 9-7
Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Hernandez and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
Tools: Dober has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

Terrance McKinney
Age: 27
Pro Record: 12-3
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
Tools: McKinney has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).

This is the most intriguing fight on the card for me. I was surprised and blown away by what McKinney did to Ziam. Because Ziam is very, very good. He’s no scrub. He has contender upside. And the way McKinney took him down, controlled him, got the submission in 2 minutes reminded me of what Islam Makhachev has been doing to guys lately. Extremely small sample size, I could be getting ahead of myself, but based off of what’s happened so far, I’m going to grade McKinney’s striking and power a 65 and his grappling a 70. And despite the two losses in a row, Dober has gotten tons better than he had been before. And those 2 losses? A close loss to rising contender Brad Riddell and possible future champion in Makhachev. No shame there. So where you think the line should open really depends on where you grade McKinney’s tools in the very small sample size. Plus, the other X factor is that McKinney is taking this fight on 8 days notice. Oddsmakers have opened McKinney around +175 and already, most of the money is coming in on the McKinney side. I actually think they got it wrong and a fair price for McKinney would be -125. Ziam is a real guy who’s beat real opponents who’s showed off real 60 wrestling. Sure, very small sample size for McKinney. But just because he finishes fights quickly shouldn’t take away from how he put away a guy like Ziam in 2 minutes. We could have a legit title contender on our hands with McKinney.

Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.

Alex Pereira vs Bruno Silva

Alex Pereira
Age: 34
Pro Record: 4-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler.
Tools: Pereira has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Bruno Silva
Age: 32
Pro Record: 22-6
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
Tools: Silva has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

Who knows with this one. Who knows, because we really haven’t seen much of Pereira in the UFC, much less MMA as a whole. Want to know what the distance striking numbers were in the Pereira vs Michailidis fight? 4 to 0 Pereira. That’s right haha. 4 strikes thrown the whole fight. I have Michailidis with 55 grappling. He controlled Pereira for a lot of the 1st round in the clinch. If the fight had gone longer, would Pereira start to reverse position. Would it get harder for Michailidis to gain control? Would Pereira start to tire out? Who Knows. I have Pereira’s wrestling as a 55 right now, but it could be a 50. I also think that part of his game will get better being that his main training partner is champion Glover Teixeira. As for Silva, I think his wrestling is a 60. It could be a 55. But I do know Silva’s striking is a 65. Pereira? Probably has 65 striking. Might have 70 striking? Like I said, who knows. And oddsmakers have opened this fight pretty close to where I would, Silva -125. I’m picking Pereira because it’s more likely his striking is a 70, but no chance I’m betting him.

Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 1st round knockout.

Matthew Semelsberger vs AJ Fletcher

Matt Semelsberger
Age: 29
Pro Record: 9-3
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat a 10-1 striker.
Tools: Semelsberger has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).

AJ Fletcher
Age: 24
Pro Record: 9-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 grappler.
Tools: Fletcher has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

I’m still trying to get a handle on Semelsberger. He’s got a 3-1 UFC record. And has big time power. 2 of his 3 wins have been knockouts in less than 20 seconds. I’m tempted to grade his striking above a 55, but the data in his most recent fight that lasted over 20 seconds was against Khaos Williams. And I’m pretty sure Williams has 60 striking and Williams out struck Semelsberger by a little bit. That fight also showed Semelsberger’s wrestling as a 50. But I could be wrong. He could be a little better. And same could be said of Fletcher. I have him with well rounded 55 tools. He was a little better than a 10-2 grappler on The Contender that I graded with well rounded 50 tools. But I could be wrong and Fletcher might be a little better than what I’m grading him. Odds aren’t out yet. I’d price Fletcher as a -125 favorite. Definitely not my most confident pick and no way I’m betting on it.

Chris’ Pick: Fletcher by decision.

Gillian Robertson vs JJ Aldrich

Gillian Robertson
Age: 26
UFC Record: 7-5
Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
Tools: Robertson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus grappling (65).

JJ Aldrich
Age: 29
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Wins: Beat Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
Tools: Aldrich has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I thought Aldrich’s striking was more of a 60. But I looked at one of her last fights against Sabina Mazo. And I’m confident Mazo has 60 striking. Mazo out struck her by enough for me to now grade Aldrich’s striking as a 55. But the key question for this fight though is where Aldrich’s wrestling is at. She was taken down and dominated by Maycee Barber back in 2019. Showing that Aldrich had 55 wrestling. Since then, Aldrich hasn’t fought any grapplers close to that caliber. She was originally going to take on Ariane Lipski. Lipski pulls out, in steps Robertson. And Robertson has kind of hit a plateau. She’s had 55 striking, 65 grappling for awhile now. Hasn’t improved much. Maybe that changes here. Her last fight with Cachoeira, she won, but got out struck. Took a lot of effort to get Cachoeira down. Which is fine, she won, but again, shows she’s gone a couple years now with not much development. Odds aren’t out yet, but I think Robertson should be a -175 favorite.

Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 2nd round submission.

Trevin Jones vs Javid Basharat

Trevin Jones
Age: 31
Pro Record: 13-7
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-3 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out Mario Bautista, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 9-5 wrestler.
Tools: Jones has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).

Javid Basharat
Age: 26
Pro Record: 11-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler. Submitted an 11-1 grappler.
Tools: Basharat has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Basharat really impressed with his wrestling. His fight on The Contender with Oron Kahlon was supposed to be close, but he dominated in the wrestling. However, the striking was close and I have his striking tool graded as a 50. Could be a 55. Maybe. The fight with Jones is interesting because he has the take down defense to keep most of this fight on the feet and we’ll see where Basharat’s hands are at. I’m not going to bet this fight, but I would open Jones at -150.

Chris’ Pick: Jones by decision.

Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk

Damon Jackson
Age: 33
Pro Record: 18-5
UFC Record: 1-3-1
Key Wins: Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Knocked out a 12-3 grappler.
Tools: Jackson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average grappling (60).

Kamuela Kirk
Age: 27
Pro Record: 12-4
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Majority decision loss to a well rounded 8-4 fighter. Split decision loss to a 6-1 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
Tools: Kirk has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).

I feel like grading Kirk’s striking as a 65 by be a tad bit aggressive. It could very well be a 60. But I know Amirkhani has 60 striking. And even though not many strikes were thrown, Kirk did out land him by a near 2 to 1 clip. 27 to 15. I can’t ignore that. Yes, Kirk got knocked out by Billy Quarantillo a few years ago on The Contender. Yes, he did lose a split decision to Bruno Souza. But he’s gotten way better since then. I’m pretty confident where I graded Jackson. I expect Kirk to make this a stand up fight where he’s going to have a big advantage, especially in the power. I would price Kirk as a -350 favorite.

Chris’ Pick: Kirk by 2nd round knockout.

Sabina Mazo vs Miranda Maverick

Sabina Mazo
Age: 24
UFC Record: 3-3
Key Losses: Lost to Maryna Moroz.
Key Wins: Submitted Justine Kish. Beat an 8-0 grappler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision win over JJ Aldrich.
Tools: Mazo has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Miranda Maverick
Age: 24
Pro/Amateur Record: 17-4
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
Key Wins: Submitted DeAnna Bennett and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
Tools: Maverick has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus grappling (65).

Mazo gets a bad break. Originally she was matched up with a striker in Mandy Bohm. But she pulls out, in steps a very different opponent in Maverick. I have confidence that Mazo’s striking is a 60, albeit with 50 power. But that’s not going to be good enough. I thought before that Maverick had 70 striking. After watching her fight with Erin Blanchfield, I’ve downgraded her striking to a 65, with 55 power. But I’m still certain her grappling is a 65 despite getting dominated by Blanchfield as Maverick was still able to stuff take downs from Maycee Barber. I think Maverick will be able to take down and control Mazo, that that’s the path to least resistance. I would price Maverick at -225.

Chris’ Pick: Maverick by 2nd round submission.

Cody Brundage vs Dalcha Lungiambula

Cody Brundage
Age: 27
Pro Record: 6-2
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler.
Tools: Brundage has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).

Dalcha Lungiambula
Age: 34
Pro Record: 11-3
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 16-3 striker.
Tools: Lungiambula has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Despite the 0-2 start to Brundage’s UFC career, he still looks like a really promising prospect. I’m confident in grading his grappling a 60. We’ve seen that in his fights with Nick Maximov and William Knight. But we’ve seen almost no striking. In the Knight fight, the distance significant strikes were literally 1 to 1. He did out strike Maximov 13 to 8, so there is that. I think his striking is a 55, but I’m not sure. It could be a 60. Tough fight to call. Lumgiambula lost his last fight to Barriault, but did much better than I thought he would. Striking was close to equal. I think Lungiambula is going to land more, but Brundage is capable of getting a KO. I’d price Lungiambula at -150. No way I’m betting him though.

Chris’ Pick: Lungiambula by decision.

Guido Cannetti vs Kris Moutinho

Guido Cannetti
Age: 42
UFC Record: 2-5
Key Losses: Submitted by Enrique Briones. Split decision loss to Leomana Martinez.
Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
Tools: Cannetti has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).

Kris Moutinho
Age: 29
Pro Record: 9-5
UFC Record: 0-1
Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 17-12 fighter.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker. Beat a 5-1 grappler.
Tools: Moutinho has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

Hard to tell how good Moutinho is after his UFC debut. He got picked apart by Sean O’Malley. Out struck by over 3 to 1. We know he’s durable though, to be able to take all the strikes. Final count at distance was 228 to 69. I think his striking is a 55, but I could be wrong. It could be a 50. With Cannetti, I think his striking is a 55, but it could be a 60. So there’s a bunch of unknowns in this fight. I’m staying away from it betting wise. I’d have Cannetti as a -125 favorite because I think there’s more of a chance his tools are slightly better than where I’m grading him at.

Chris’ Pick: Cannetti by split decision.

Tafon Nchukwi vs Azamat Murzakanov

Tafon Nchukwi
Age: 27
Pro Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker. Beat Mike Rodriguez and Jamie Pickett.
Tools: Nchukwi has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

Azamat Murzakanov
Age: 35
Pro Record: 10-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
Tools: Murzakanov has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

Really, really good fight here. Two of the top prospects at 205 lbs collide. I have both guys grading equally. But I have to favor Nchukwi here because I’m a lot more confident in where I’ve graded him. I haven’t seen as much of Murzakanov. His striking might be more like a 60. But Nchukwi have the best performance of his career, cruising to a win over Rodriguez. Why is that so significant? Don’t we like to see dominant finishes? I call it the best of his career because his cardio took a big leap forward. He didn’t slow down in the 2nd half of the fight. His pace and efficiency was great. He didn’t let up the whole 15 minutes. So not only am I more confident with where I graded Nchukwi’s tools, but it’s also very likely he’ll have the better cardio. I’d have Nchukwi priced only as a -135 favorite though. Too much projection here for me to bet it.

Chris’ Pick: Nchukwi by 3rd round knockout.