Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Tools: Blaydes has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexei Oleinik and Rodrigo Nascimento.
- Tools: Daukaus has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
There’s a very good chance this is the typical Blaydes fight. Blaydes takes the guy down. Control. Ground and pound. Rinse and repeat. Not the most entertaining style, but as someone betting on the fight, I enjoy knowing what I’m getting. This fight has a little more risk than the regular Blaydes fight because we haven’t seen Daukaus in the cage with a high level wrestler yet. There’s not too many of them at heavyweight. I have his wrestling graded as a 60 and as such think a fair price for Blaydes is -225. But oddsmakers have opened Blaydes around -265, which means they’re even more confident than I am. Then there’s the cherry on top which is that Blaydes does indeed have 70 striking. His last fight with Rozenstruik, he outlanded him 24 to 16. Blaydes is a great striker now, but it becomes even better because his opponents have their hands so low ready to try and stop the take down. So yeah, Daukaus could knock Blaydes out. Daukaus has more power. But the biggest risk in the fight is we really don’t know 100% for sure where Daukaus’ wrestling is at. I’m probably going to bet Bladyes, but it’ll be just a sprinkle, especially with all that chalk.
Chris’ Pick: Blaydes by decision.
Alexa Grasso vs Joanne Wood
- Alexa Grasso
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 125 lbs. 5-3 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Beat Maycee Barber, Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
- Tools: Grasso has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Joanne Wood
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lauren Murphy.
- Key Wins: Beat Jessica Eye and Ariane Lipski. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Tools: Wood has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has above average wrestling (60).
After going through the data of her last 3 fights, and especially her last fight with Taila Santos, I need to grade Wood’s striking a 70. Yes, she got knocked out. But before the KO happened, Wood was actually out striking Santos 26 to 19. So that could help keep the fight with Grasso close as Grasso has also proven she has 70 striking. She proved it again when she out struck Barber. The thing I’m curious about is how much Grasso leans in to her newfound wrestling in this fight. Wood’s Achilles’ heel is well known. Her take down defense. Lauren Murphy took her down over and over again to beat her. It’s not normally Grasso’s style to go wrestling heavy, but she might have to to win the fight. Because the stand up will be close. I think she will mix some take downs in and would price Grasso at -150.
Chris’ Pick: Grasso by split decision.
Matt Brown vs Bryan Barberena
- Matt Brown
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 16-12
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Dhiego Lima and Diego Sanchez.
- Tools: Brown has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Jason Witt.
- Key Wins: Beat Darian Weeks and Warlley Alves.
- Tools: Barberena has above average (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
When Brown fought Lima in his last fight, I was really surprised that Lima closed as a -180 favorite. I felt Brown would have slightly better striking and way more power. Turned out Lima’s striking was more of a 60 as the stand up was close, but Brown’s 2nd round KO confirmed the power advantage. Really coin flip fight here. Brown wins a lot via KO but Barbarena has shown time and again how durable he is. It’s possible Brown has a wrestling advantage, but doubt he tries to win that way. I really think Barberena having better cardio gives him enough of an edge to win, but no way am I betting this. I’d have both guys at -115 as a pick em.
Chris’ Pick: Barberena by split decision.
Kai Kara France vs Askar Askarov
- Kai Kara France
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Rogerio Bontorin. Beat Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Tools: Kara France has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Askar Askarov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-0-1
- UFC Record: 3-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler, a well rounded 19-6 fighter, a well rounded 37-5 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out a 9-2 grappler. Beat Joseph Benavidez, Alexandre Pantoja, and Tim Elliott.
- Tools: Askarov has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus plus grappling (75).
Askarov is looking like a possible future champion. Not only did he prove in his last two fights with Benavidez and Pantoja he has 75 wrestling, but also showed his stand up has improved all the way up to a 70 grade, albeit with 60 power. Pretty amazing considering he came into the UFC as a one dimensional wrestler. He gets Kara France who’s had a bit of a breakout of his own, with unlocking 70 power in his hands. Can’t deny that now with two consecutive 1st round KOs. But unfortunately for Kara France, he’s not going to have an answer for the wrestling and unrelenting pace. Askarov has the cardio to grapple all fight. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’d price Askarov at -175.
Chris’ Pick: Askarov by decision.
Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik
- Ilir Latifi
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Ovince St Preux. Beat Tyson Pedro.
- Tools: Latifi has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Aleksei Oleinik
- Age: 44
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Wins: Submitted Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Split decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
- Tools: Oleinik has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Ever since Latfifi got knocked out by Volkan Oezdemir in 2019, he’s been fighting only once a year and has been very wrestling heavy in his approach. Not throwing too many strikes. Oleinik’s grappling will force him to stand though, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Oleinik is towards the end of his career. He’s lost 5 out of his last 7. His skills are starting to really regress. But huge credit to him as he’s still fighting at 44 years old, which is crazy. And, I also have to acknowledge that all 5 of the losses have been against top #10 opponents. Ground game should be cancelled out here. Difference maker is Latifi’s power. Should help him eventually land the KO. But the danger in betting him is that if he doesn’t get the knockout, the striking could be close and then who knows what the judges do. I’d price Latifi at -150.
Chris’ Pick: Latifi by 2nd round knockout.
Viachelav Borshchev vs Marc Diakiese
- Viacheslav Borshchev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dakota Bush and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Borshchev has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Marc Diakiese
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
- Key Wins: Beat Joseph Duffy and Lando Vannata.
- Tools: Diakiese has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
The odds aren’t out yet, but it’ll be interesting to see what the oddsmakers do. Borshchev is the hotter name. Coming off two quick KO wins. New prospect. I think he’ll probably be favored. But I would actually stake Diakiese as a -225 favorite. He’s had less than 2 minutes of cage time in the last 2 years. Rafael Alves caught him in a guillotine choke last November. It happens. Before that, Diakiese lost also, but did pretty good. His opponent out struck him 67 to 66. Very close. The opponent’s name? Rafael Fiziev. Oh. Yeah. That guy, he’s really good. I do think Borshchev has more power. But other than the KO, I see Diakiese having two legit paths to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Diakiese by decision.
David Onama vs Nate Landwehr
- David Onama
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
- Tools: Onama has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 15-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Ludovit Klein. Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice).
- Tools: Landwehr has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I picked Onama to beat Gabriel Benitez. I wasn’t surprised by the end result. What I was surprised about was that the striking in the 1st round was close to equal. I have Onama with 65 striking and Benitez with 60 striking. My best educated guess as to why that happened is because Benitez almost always starts fast. I don’t think he would’ve been able to maintain that output. I’m also still decently confident in Onama’s striking being a 65 because of how he fought up a weight class against Mason Jones and the striking was close to equal. Meanwhile, Landwehr improved his striking to a 60 with how close to equal his striking was with Klein, who I had with 60 striking going into that fight. And based off what Klein just did to Devonte Smith, is it possible Landwehr has 65 striking? Maybe. Most likely, this fight could come down to Onama’s power vs Landwehr’s cardio. But Onama is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. So that’s going to make it even harder for him to win if he doesn’t get Landwehr out early, right? Too many unknowns for me to bet this fight, but I’d price Onama at -135.
Chris’ Pick: Onama by 2nd round knockout.
Neil Magny vs Max Griffin
- Neil Magny
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 21-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means.
- Tools: Magny has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Max Griffin
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Alex Oliveira and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry.
- Tools: Griffin has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Based on this matchup, it’s obvious not many of the ranked welterweights want to fight Magny. This fight is close to a mismatch. Griffin’s only real chance is to get the KO. But Magny has proved to be durable. He handled a better striker in his last fight with Neal. He should be able to take Griffin down and control him most of the time. Wear him out. I’m looking forward to betting this fight because it’s the safest on the card. I think a fair price for Magny would be -325.
Chris’ Pick: Magny by decision.
Tucker Lutz vs Seung Woo Choi
- Tucker Lutz
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Aguilar and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Lutz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Youssef Zalal and an 8-1 grappler.
- Tools: Choi has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This fight is very similar to McMann vs Rosa below. Lutz was actually a -120 favorite in his last fight with Pat Sabatini but got dominated. But I think that has more to do with how good Sabatini is vs Lutz not being as good. Same could be said of Choi, his 3-3 UFC record doesn’t reflect how good of a prospect he is. He lost to Alex Caceres, but striking was close to equal, arguably Choi landed with more power. But Choi was taken down, got caught in a choke and it was over. For Choi to win, he has to keep the fight standing up long enough to score enough points to win. I think he should be a -125 favorite but it’s a coin flip fight and no way I’m betting on it.
Chris’ Pick: Choi by split decision.
Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa
- Sara McMann
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Marion Reneau.
- Key Wins: Beat Lina Lansberg.
- Tools: McMann has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio.
- Tools: Rosa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
Interesting fight here. With McMann, you always know what the game plan is. But for her to win, she needs to be more efficient. In her last fight with now champion Julianna Pena, McMann looked super impressive. Took Pena down and controlled her for the first 2 rounds. But McMann used so much effort, she ran out of gas by the 3rd round and Pena took over. And Rosa might very well have 70 wrestling with how she was able to take down Bethe Correia and Edwards. I think Rosa should be a -125 favorite but who knows what the jduges will do with this one.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by split decision.
Chris Guttierez vs Danaa Batgerel
- Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Morales. Beat Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
- Tools: Guttierez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Danaa Batgerel
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brandon Davis and Kevin Natividad. Submitted an 8-2 grappler.
- Tools: Batgerel has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
After dropping his UFC debut, Batgerel has rattled off three consecutive 1st round KOs. His last one, the Davis knockout, was most impressive. Not just because of the KO. But because of what’s underneath the hood. Batgerel out landed Davis in distance significant strikes by 20 to 7. So even if Davis didn’t get knocked out, it seemed like Batgerel was still going to win. And I don’t see Guttierez really bringing anything different to the table. He has a little more power than Davis, but that’s about it. No threat on the ground. I’d price Batgerel at -350.
Chris’ Pick: Batgerel by 1st round knockout.
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Denis Tiuliulin
- Aliaskhab Khizriev
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rousimar Palhares. Submitted a 13-3 striker.
- Tools: Khizriev has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Denis Tiuliulin
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Tools: Tiuliulin has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
It’s possible that Tiuliulin has 55 striking and 50 wrestling. There’s not much recent video of him out there fighting quality competition. That said, I really like Khizriev here. Tiuliulin will be fighting on 2 weeks notice. Not coming in with a full camp. I watched a well rounded 9-1 fighter dominate Tiuliulin by taking him down over and over again until Tiuliulin tapped out in the 3rd round from a kimura. I thought Tiuliulin’s opponent had 55 grappling. So that means I think Khizriev’s wrestling is even better or at least on par. Oddsmakers have opened Khizriev at -425 and I agree. I’d have him at -400.
Chris’ Pick: Khizriev by decision.
Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot
- Jennifer Maia
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Jessica Eye, Alexis Davis, and Roxanne Modafferi.
- Tools: Maia has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat Mayra Bueno Silva and a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Fiorot has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
Love these types of fights. You have the rising contender who’s laid waste to all opponents so far in Fiorot, taking on an established top 5 fighter in the division in Maia. For Maia, her last fight with Katlyn Chookagian has settled once and for all, her grappling is a 65. We thought maybe her grappling improved with her win over Joanne Wood and the fact that she took Valentina Shevchenko down in 1 round. But the data after those fights reflects the grappling tool is a 65 grade. And it looks inevitable, that at some point, Fiorot will be getting a title shot. It might be later this year if she gets an impressive win over Maia. I’m picking Fiorot to win the fight, but I don’t think I’m as high on her as others are. She was going to fight Jessica Eye and the oddsmakers opened with her at -350. Which I thought was insane because I have Fiorot’s striking as a 65. But they must think the striking is a 70. It could be. We’ll find out here. I would price Fiorot in this fight as a -200 because she has more power. And it’s possible her striking could be a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by 3rd round knockout.
David Dvorak vs Matheus Nicolau
- David Dvorak
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 20-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Beat by a 6-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a 16-2 striker. Beat Jordan Espiniosa and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Tools: Dvorak has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Matheus Nicolau
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat Tim Elliott, Louis Smolka, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decisions over Manel Kape and John Moraga.
- Tools: Nicolau has near plus striking (65). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
Despite the hype that Dvorak gets, I have him with 60 tools. There’s no way Jordan Espinosa has 65 striking, it’s a 60 tool. Well Dvorak fought Espinosa and the striking was close to equal. Plus he couldn’t take Espinosa down. With Nicolau, I’m pretty confident he has 65 tools based on what he did in the Kape fight. Dvorak will be forced to stand and I just think Nicolau is better there. I’d price Nicolau a -200 favorite.
Chris’ Pick: Nicolau by decision.
Luis Saldana vs Bruno Souza
- Luis Saldana
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 15-7
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-4 fighter. Lost to a 1-1 fighter and a 2-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat Jordan Griffin.
- Tools: Saldana has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Bruno Souza
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Split decision wins over Kamuela Kirk and a 7-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Souza has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
For Souza, he really just needs to be careful in the 1st round. That’s when Saldana is dangerous. He tends to use most of his gas tank, unloading, then fading during the rest of the fight. But who am I kidding. This is Bruno Souza. Lyoto Machida’s karate protege. Very elusive, great footwork, really hard to hit. But the thing that I think Souza will do that some might not expect is for Souza to take Saldana down. I think he can. Souza showed a willingness to use the wrestling in his UFC debut with Melsik Baghdasaryan. Didn’t get the take down, but again, showed that it’s a tool he can use. I don’t see Souza having much of a problem here, except Saldan will probably have more power. So there is a smidge of risk there, but I’m probably going to bet Souza because of the wrestling he’ll have in his back pocket.
Chris’ Pick: Souza by decision.