Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier
- Israel Adesanya
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-0 at 185 lbs. 11-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jared Cannonier
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 185 lbs. 8-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Kelvin Gastelum.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This fight is going to be all about Cannonier’s power and whether he can get to it in this fight. Cannonier might have improved his wrestling to a 70 with the way he was able to stuff most of Brunson’s take down attempts. And Cannonier has showed he has the cardio to go 5 strong rounds in his fight with Gastelum. I still think Robert Whittaker beat Adesanya 3 rounds to 2. It’s getting to the point where take downs and grappling don’t count for anything with the judges, but I digress. Striking was close to equal. So I’m confident with where I’ve graded both. And Adesanya is more likely to win. But Cannonier is absolutely capable of knocking Adesanya out. But Adesanya has shown he can handle power punchers as shown in his fight with light heavyweight Jan Blachowicz. And if Adesanya can steer clear of the Polish power, I think he can get past Cannonier.
Chris’ Pick: Adesanya by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Adesanya -150
Alex Volkanovski vs Max Holloway
- Alexander Volkanovski
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Chad Mendes. Beat Brian Ortega, Max Holloway twice and Jose Aldo.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Max Holloway
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 19-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: neat plus plus (75)
Let’s look at the last fight between these guys. What happened? First two rounds, striking was close to equal. Holloway landed with more power. Won the rounds. While watching the fight live, I thought Holloway won the fight by winning the first 3 rounds. But after looking at the numbers, Volkanovski did out strike Holloway in the final 3 rounds. Mixed in a couple take downs. Volkanovski won because amazingly, his cardio was better. So what could be different in this fight? Holloway’s approach has changed slightly. He showed it off in the Kattar fight, opting for less power and more volume. The Kattar fight was lopsided and elevated Holloway’s striking to a top of the scale 80 grade, albeit with 70 power. The Yair Rodriguez fight was closer, but that had more to do with Rodriguez elevating his striking to a 75. My point is that Holloway has gotten better, and his striking approach is a lot more like Volkanovski’s now. Which makes me think his cardio will hold up and the striking could be razor close. I have both graded exactly the same, but think Holloway still has slightly more power. But it’s a total coin flip and the preferences of the judges could really determine the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Volkanovski -125
Sean Strickland vs Alex Pereira
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The commentary for Strickland vs Hermansson made it seem as if Strickland was way ahead. But that wasn’t the case at all. The strikes were close to equal going into the 4th round and Strickland did pull away in the 5th round. Strickland out landed him 151 to 134. I’m confident that Hermansson elevated his striking to a 70. I thought it could’ve been a 70 going into the fight. Still confident Strickland’s striking is a 70. And Pereira did show improved wrestling. Silva isn’t just a striker. He has 60 wrestling. Got a couple take downs, but Pereira got back up right away and Silva wasn’t able to take him down the rest of the way. So I have Pereira with 60 wrestling and that probably won’t be good enough to stuff Strickland take downs. But the interesting thing is usually Strickland prefers to exchange strikes. Shows off defensive wrestling. I don’t think he’ll want to do that here. Pereira might have 75 striking with the way the Silva fight went. His power is closer to a 75 than Strickland is. Smart thing for Strickland to do is go for take downs and push the pace. Test Pereira’s cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Strickland -175
Robbie Lawler vs Bryan Barberena
- Robbie Lawler
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 10-6 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rory MacDonald. Split decision over Johny Hendricks and Carlos Condit.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Jason Witt.
- Key Wins: Beat Darian Weeks and Warlley Alves. Split decision over Matt Brown.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Who knows where Nick Diaz’s skills were really at. I do know Diaz made Lawler look like the Lawler of old. But I think how Lawler did against Neil Magny and Colby Convington is a better representation of where his tools are at. Barberena’s win over 60 striker Brown was really close. He did out strike Brown. But I think the results had more to do with Brown finally regressing vs Barberena all of a sudden improving his striking to a 65. I think the question of this fight is going to be will Lawler gas out trying to finish Barberena who’s very durable. Lawler is the better striker. No threat of Barberena getting the take down. All Lawler has to do is not gas out.
Chris’ Pick: Lawler by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lawler -275
Sean O’Malley vs Pedro Munhoz
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida, Eddie Wineland, and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Pedro Munhoz
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Jimmie Rivera and Brett Johns.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Not much of a fight here. Horrible style matchup for Munhoz who is probably at his ceiling developmentally. He’s a quality, successful UFC fighter, but his skills have plateaued the past couple years and he’s lost 4 of his last 5 fights. And wow, O’Malley really impressed me against Paiva. I picked Paiva to win, thought he’d be able to take O’Malley down and make it a dirty fight. But turns out O’Malley has 65 wrestling, could be a 70 tool, Paiva got nowhere close to taking him down. O’Malley ended up out landing Paiva 37 to 11. I had Paiva with 65 striking going in, I was probably off, probably a 60. The one thing Munhoz has going for him is his durability. He’s never been knocked out. So all O’Malley has to do is make sure he doesn’t gas out.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by decision.
What I think the odds should be: O’Malley -375
Brad Riddell vs Jalin Turner
- Brad Riddell
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Alex da Silva, a 12-2 striker. Beat Drew Dober. Split decision over Magomed Mustafaev.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-1 at 155 lbs. 6-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Uros Medic.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I got to give Riddell credit. He proved his striking is a 70 with how Rafael Fiziev barely out landed him 64 to 59. Close to equal. I’ve also upgraded his wrestling to a 65 with how he was able to take a 65 wrestler in Fiziev down. Turner knocked out Mullarkey but I graded his tools the same as I did going in. Interesting fight in that Turner will have more power but Riddell will land more and have better wrestling to maybe mix in a take down or two. Or maybe get some clinch work in.
Chris’ Pick: Riddell by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Riddell – 175
Donald Cerrone vs Jim Miller
- Donald Cerrone
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 23-13
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza. Knocked out Alexander Hernandez. Beat Al Iaquinta, Eddie Alvarez, and Ben Henderson.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jim Miller
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 23-15
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nik Motta. Submitted Roosevelt Roberts and Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Cerrone is really regressing. No shame in getting knocked out by Connor McGregor or getting beat by Anthony Pettis. But Niko Price has proven to have just 60 striking and he out landed Cerrone 129 to 101. Then Cerrone took on 65 striker Alex Morono and Morono out struck him by a 2 to 1 clip. I haven’t seen much of Cerrone’s grappling lately. I left it as a 60 for now, but it could be a 55. That said, Cerrone stepping in so quick after a full weight cut on June 16 is a way, way more winnable matchup for Miller than Bobby Green. Way, way tougher matchup for Cerrone than Joe Lauzon. Miller should have a big cardio advantage. At this point, has better striking. And I also question Cerrone’s chin at this point as he was knocked out by Morono last time out and Morono doesn’t really have KO power.
Chris’ Pick: Miller by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Miller -300
Ian Garry vs Gabe Green
- Ian Garry
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Darian Weeks and a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Gabe Green
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yohan Lainesse, a 7-0 striker, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Philip Rowe.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Only 2 UFC fights in, Garry looks like he’s on the path of becoming a contender. And Green isn’t really a tough fight for him. I’d say his last opponent Weeks was more difficult because he brought wrestling to the table. Garry neutralized that. Showed he had better cardio than Weeks. Out landed 60 striker Weeks by a decent clip. Green was almost knocked out by his last opponent Lainesse. But Lainesse gassed out half way through and Green took over from there. But Garry’s cardio is top notch. I don’t really see any path to win for Green.
Chris’ Pick: Garry by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Garry -350
Brad Tavares vs Dricus du Plessis
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 14-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou. Split decision over Omari Akhmedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dricus du Plessis
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Trevin Giles, Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Du Plessis’ striking is probably a 65 based on how he out landed Giles and Perez. But it’s also possible the tool could be a 60. Haven’t seen enough of him to know for sure. But I do know his wrestling is a 60 with the way he was able to take down 55 wrestler Giles a couple times. Tavares may have elevated his striking to a 70 but I’m not sure. He hasn’t fought in a close to a year but last time out he squeaked out a close split decision win over Akmedov. And I had Akhmedov with 65 striking going into the fight, but Tavares out struck he by a decent clip. I think the most likely scenario is that Akhmedov’s striking is a 60, but it could be a 65 and Tavares could have 70 striking. Lots of unknowns. I’m staying away from betting it.
Chris’ Pick: du Plessis by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: pick em
Uriah Hall vs Andre Muniz
- Uriah Hall
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 13-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Split decision over Antonio Carlos Jr.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Eryk Anders, Jacare Souza, Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker, and a 6-0 striker. Beat an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
I legitimately feel bad for Hall here. Not sure why the UFC matched these guys up. Maybe it’s because no one wants to fight Muniz and Hall had the courage to raise his hand. Well, this isn’t going to end well. Based on how Sean Strickland was able to take down and control Hall shows that Hall’s wrestling is still a 60. He hasn’t improved it. Meanwhile, Muniz is turning into one of the top 3 most feared grapplers in all of the UFC. Anders has proved he has 65 wrestling. But Muniz’s grappling is on such a high level, he easily took Anders down, and the whole fight, it seemed like it was just a matter of time until Anders tapped. The odds will be interesting here, as far as how big a favorite Muniz becomes.
Chris’ Pick: Muniz by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Muniz -600
Jessica Eye vs Maycee Barber
- Jessica Eye
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4 in the UFC at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Viviane Araujo and Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision win over Katlyn Chookagian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Beat Montana de la Rosa. Split decision over Miranda Maverick.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Barber is only 24 years old. She’s developing. And I think her striking will eventually be a 70. Her last fight with de la Rosa didn’t show any of that though. And didn’t show anything we didn’t already know. Well rounded 65 tools across the board. Eye hasn’t fought in a year and it was a curious fight with Jennifer Maia. Curious in the sense that Maia didn’t have any interest in taking Eye down. And Eye even landed a couple take downs of her own. Which Maia got right back up, but it’s enough for me to elevate Eye’s wrestling from a 60 to a 65. I think this could be a close fight but I see Barber’s power advantage being the difference maker.
Chris’ Pick: Barber by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Barber -150
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Julija Stoliarenko
- Jessica-Rose Clark
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 125 lbs. 4-3 overall
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sarah Alpar. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Paige VanZant.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Julija Stoliarenko
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-6-2
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Interesting fight because Clark is so similar to Stoliarenko’s last opponent Alexis Davis. And what was interesting about that fight is that Stoliarenko looked dramatically improved in the stand up, but her strategy was flawed. I know Davis has 65 striking, her striking was close to equal with 65 striker Pannie Kianzad. So I expected Davis to cruise against Stoliarenko. But instead, when they were on the feet, amazingly, Stoliarenko actually out struck her 51 to 41. But Stoliarenko lost because the 1st and 3rd rounds, she was content to let Davis have top control so she could fish for submissions. She almost got an arm bar in the 1st round. Didn’t quite get it. And spent most of the rest of the fight searching for it. She didn’t get it. Lost the fight. Had she gotten back up, it’s possible she could’ve won on the feet. So what makes this fight interesting is that she gets another crack at a very similar opponent in Clark who has really become a bit one dimensional in relying so much on her wrestling. Yes, Clark lost her last fight to a grappler. By arm bar. So Stoliarenko will be tempted. I think Clark losing though was more to do with Stephanie Egger showing up way better vs Clark’s wrestling not being as good as I thought. Anyway, the smart thing for Stoliarenko to do is try and get back up and win on the feet. I think Clark has 55 striking, but I’m not entirely sure because she hasn’t been striking much lately, the tool could be a 60, but either way, I expect Stoliarenko to win on the feet. But I don’t plan on betting this fight because I have no idea how much time Stoliarenko will spend on her back looking for the arm bar. She could lose the fight that way.
Chris’ Pick: Stoliarenko by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Stoliarenko -135