Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill
- Thiago Santos
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-4 at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders. Beat Johnny Walker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute, and Ovince St Preux. Beat Darko Stosic.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
It took Santos a couple years since his devastating Jon Jones fight, but it looks like Santos is finally healthy and his tools are back to where they once were. Well rounded 70 tools. His last fight with 70 striker Magomed Ankalaev, the striking was close to equal. I think what gave Ankalaev the fight was the control time he got in the clinch. He was able to win the vast majority of time on the fence. Hill is interesting. The last time he fought for longer than 3 minutes was the St Preux fight in 2020. Hill out struck OSP in the 1st round by a decent amount. But Hill was fighting with a bunch of pressure and pace. And in the 2nd round, Hill out landed 35 to 14. Got the KO. I think if the fight had kept going into the 3rd round, it would’ve been the same story, Hill out striking him by a 2 to 1 clip. I was surprised at Hill’s wrestling in the Paul Craig fight. I thought Craig would be able to take Hill down. But Craig couldn’t, he had to pull guard. And Hill made the tactical mistake of staying in the guard and that cost him the fight. Then in his next two fights with Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker, he gets the two quick knockouts. Which makes me wonder if he’s now selling out for power more or if he could keep that pace going an entire fight with that same power. So I’m not entirely sure his striking is a 75, but it most likely is. And I’m not entirely sure his wrestling is a 70, because his Craig fight only lasted 2 minutes. But Hill’s wrestling most likely is a 70. It’s enough for me to pick Hill.
Chris’ Pick: Hill by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Hill -200
Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal
- Vicente Luque
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 14-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Geoff Neal
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Perry and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Luque lost to Belal Muhammad because Belal got so many take downs and top control. Proving that Luque’s submission win over Chiesa was more of the fluke variety. Kinda like a flash knockout. They happen sometimes. Muhammad has 70 wrestling, makes Luque’s grappling a 65. Luque out struck Muhammad by a tad, but not enough to where I would consider his striking a 75. Neal last fought Ponzinibbio and I think this fight with Luque could be very similar. Striking vs Ponzinibbio was close to equal. Power and damage landed was close to equal. But I do think Luque has more power than Neal. I think Luque’s striking is closer to a 75 than Neal’s is. And I just upgraded Neal’s striking to a 70 and I’m not 100% convinced of it. That it’s possible Ponzinibbio and Neal have 65 striking. And those are enough reasons for me to give Luque a slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Luque by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Luque -125
Zac Pauga vs Mohammed Usman
- Zac Pauga
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Markus Perez, a 5-2 wrestler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Mohammed Usman
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I wasn’t that impressed with Usman. And less impressed with his opponents. Usman took on Eduardo Perez who I thought had 45 wrestling and Usman wasn’t able to get him down. Which means it’s possible Usman’s wrestling is a 45, but I still have it as a 50 tool for now. He landed just a bit more than 50 strikers Mitchell Sipe and Perez. I was more impressed with Pauga who I’m pretty sure has 60 grade wrestling. He normally fights at 205 lbs so the fact that he was able to take his heavyweight opponents down showed a lot. I see Pauga having better cardio and getting take downs in route to a decision win.
Chris’ Pick: Pauga by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pauga -175
Brogan Walker vs Juliana Miller
- Brogan Walker
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Maverick and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Juliana Miller
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 2-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Claire Guthrie is good. I graded her with well rounded 55 tools. And I was impressed Miller was able to get the better of the grappling. But I was really impressed in how she looked in the Kaytlin Neil fight. Within just a few weeks on the show, her striking looked a lot better, but it was the pace and pressure that she used that made it so effective. The way she was out striking Neil, the tool is at least a 55. And with how she dominated on the ground, it’s possible her grappling could be a 65. Walker’s first fight on TUF went well for her and she looked like the favorite to win the tournament, but she struggled more than I thought she would with Hannah Guy. I don’t know what happened. I thought Guy had 50 striking and 55 grappling but maybe she’s better than that. Or maybe Walker’s cardio isn’t so great. She was winning the fight on the feet but then in the 2nd round Guy was able to take her down and keep her there. I had Walker’s wrestling as a 60 going in to that and I downgraded it to a 55. The fight was over after two rounds, the judges gave Walker the win for winning the striking, but I wish we would’ve seen a 3rd round. Either way, I’m thinking if Guy was able to get Walker down and keep her there, Miller should be able to do the same thing as I see Miller’s ground ability being superior to Guy’s. I see Miller having a big cardio advantage in the second half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Miller by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Miller -150
Augusto Sakai vs Serghei Spivac
- Augusto Sakai
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura, Chase Sherman, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Blagoi Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I now have to give Spivac credit for 70 grappling. I thought it was a 65. But it turns out Oleinik still has 65 grappling. Spivac was a slightly better on the ground against Oleinik. And turns out Tom Aspinall has 75 grappling, which explains how Spivac tried to take Aspinall down and didn’t get anywhere close. And Hardy had improved his wrestling to a 60, but 70 grappling for Spivac would explain how he was able to take Hardy down pretty easy. And that’s going to be a problem for Sakai who has better striking here, but lacks the wrestling to stuff the take downs. Sakai was beating Alistair Overeem until Overeem started getting some take downs with his 65 wrestling. And when Sakai fought Tai Tuivasa, even Tuivasa was able to get the better of it in the clinch. Spivac is the best grappler Sakai has ever fought and if he had problems with Overeem on the ground then he’s going to be in real trouble with Spivac.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Spivac -250
Michel Oleksiejczuk vs Sam Alvey
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Sam Alvey
- Age: 36
- UFC record: 10-12-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Wellington Turman.
- Key Draws: Fought Da Un Jung to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Prachnio.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The Alvey of old showed up in the Brendan Allen fight and made it a lot closer than I thought it would be. I had thought Alvey’s striking had regressed to a 55, but he definitely showed 60 striking and the shots landed was close to equal. But then Allen landed a hard shot, knocked Alvey down and jumped on a rear naked choke. Oleksiejczuk is coming off a razor close loss to Dustin Jacoby where Jacoby out struck him 70 to 66. But the fight also reaffirmed Oleksiejczuk’s tools. Alvey’s comeback is admirable, but he’s going to get overwhelmed here by Oleksiejczuk’s pace and volume.
Chris’ Pick: Oleksiejczuk by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Oleksiejczuk -300
Terrance McKinney vs Erick Gonzalez
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Erick Gonzalez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Humberto Bandenay.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 7-0-1 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Gonzalez’s wrestling turned out to be much better than I thought. He took on 60 wrestler Jim Miller and the wrestling was close to equal. But Miller won the fight and knocked Gonzalez out with better striking. I’m decently confident Gonzalez’s striking is a 55, just not sure if Miller’s is also a 55 or 60. And despite getting knocked out in his last fight, I still think McKinney’s grappling is a 70. I had both McKinney and Ziam graded with 60 wrestling and grappling. Market agreed as the line closed as a pick em. And McKinney just steamrolled Ziam. I can see McKinney doing the same thing here, or knocking Gonzalez out like Miller did. McKinney has two legit paths to win here and should be a big favorite.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: McKinney -600
Bryan Battle vs Takashi Saito
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Takashi Sato
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 13-10 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Battle’s striking took a step forward in the Gore fight and he out landed Gore by over a 2 to 1 clip. It’s possible that Battle’s grappling could be a 60. He was able to slightly out grapple Gore, but not enough for me to give him the 55 grade. Sato’s grades don’t change since his last fight with Gunnar Nelson. What I expected to happen did happen. Nelson dominated Sato by taking him down and controlling him. Battle should be able to out strike Sato, but he just has to watch out for the power.
Chris’ Pick: Battle by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Battle -150
Cory McKenna vs Miranda Granger
- Cory McKenna
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Elise Reed.
- Key Wins: Beat Kay Hansen and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Miranda Granger
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Colleen. Beat Hannah Goldy.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I had Granger’s grappling graded a bit too high. And she hasn’t fought in about a year and a half. Long lay off. Her last fight was with 60 wrestler Ashley Yoder and Yoder got the better of the grappling. Not dominant, but Yoder was better. However Granger’s striking was slightly better than I thought, close to equal with 55 striker Yoder. It’s possible McKenna’s grappling could have elevated to a 65 in her last fight with Reed. I don’t know for sure because I haven’t seen much of Reed and am not sure if her wrestling is a 55 or 60. I had it as a 60 going in and McKenna got the better of her on the ground. I’m leaning more towards Reed 55 wrestling, McKenna 60 grappling, but I could be wrong. Reed won because she landed more but I know McKenna’s striking is at least a 55. Fight should be close to equal on the feet, but if Yoder was able to get the better of Granger on the ground, than McKenna should as well.
Chris’ Pick: McKenna by decision.
What I think the odds should be: McKenna -175
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Stephanie Egger
- Mayra Bueno Silva
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Beat Yanan Wu. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Stephanie Egger
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Rose Clark. Knocked out Shanna Young and Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
On the surface, you could look at the result of Egger submitting Clark and thinking, okay cool, Egger got taken down and got the arm bar from bottom. Got lucky. But if you watch the fight, you’ll see that Egger was Clark’s equal on the ground. Clark got a couple take downs, but Egger got the better of some of it too, before the arm. So I’m upgrading Egger’s grappling to a 65. I’m not super confident in her striking being a 60. It could be a 55. I’m not sure because most of Egger’s three fights have been on the ground. We haven’t seen her strike a lot. Bueno Silva affirmed her 60 striking against 55 striker Yanan. But I still have her power as a 50 because she only has 1 knockout in 10 pro fights. Close fight. Egger probably has more power, but it’s possible Bueno Silva lands more. Look for Egger to mix in some take downs and get the better of the grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Egger by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Egger -150