Vera vs Cruz, Landwahr vs Onama, Lucindo vs Jauregui Fight Picks - August 13, 2022 - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz

Marlon Vera
Age: 29
UFC Record: 13-6
Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Rob Font and Davey Grant.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Dominick Cruz
Age: 36
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Wins: Beat Pedro Munhoz. Beat Urijah Faber twice. Split decision wins over TJ Dillashaw and Casey Kenney.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

When Cruz was in his prime, he had 75 striking and 70 wrestling. First I saw his striking regress to a 70 in the Casey Kenney fight. I thought he still had the 70 wrestling, but he fought Munhoz, who has 65 grappling and Cruz tried repeatedly to take him down. 9 take down attempts. Only 1 take down. Wrestling is now a 65. Cruz will probably try to take Vera down to but I don’t think he’ll be able to. I still think Rob Font beat Vera. Font proved his 75 striking by out landing Vera 256 to 133. I thought Vera had 65 striking going into the fight, but the tool probably is a 70 after all. The big thing that sticks out to me in this fight is if you think Vera had a power advantage in the Font fight, just wait until you see this one. It’s not going to be pretty. Striking will probably be close to equal, but Vera’s going to do way, way more damage and that power difference will eventually end Cruz’s night.

Chris’ Pick: Vera by 3rd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Vera -200

Nate Landwehr vs David Onama

Nate Landwehr
Age: 33
Pro Record: 15-4
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Wins: Submitted Ludovit Klein. Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice).
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: above average (60)

David Onama
Age: 28
Pro Record: 10-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Submitted Garrett Armfield. Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

And here I thought Klein was over rated. Klein was a massive -380 favorite to beat Landwehr, but the wrestling was equal, striking was equal. Landwehr put on a heavy pace, Klein started gassing out in the 3rd round and Landwehr took over. So I downgraded Klein’s tools. Was really confident Devonte Smith would beat Klein. But amazingly, Klein beat Smith. Which means what really happened between Landwehr and Klein is that Landwehr showed up much improved. And it’s his cardio and pace that make his striking a 65 grade for me. Onama came in as a monster -800 favorite against short notice opponent Armfield. I watched Armfield and thought the line was crazy. Armfield is a really good prospect. I thought Onama should be more of a -300 favorite. And turns out Armfield is even better than I thought because the striking in the 1st round was close to equal. But then Armfield started to gas out in the 2nd round and Onama took over, got the submission win. But the fight being close in the 1st round had everything to do with Armfield being good vs Onama not being as good as we thought. Onama vs Landwehr finally happens now with Zubaira Tukhugov being moved to UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi. To me, this fight is Onama’s power vs Landwehr’s cardio. Ultimately, Landwehr’s durability will answer who wins this fight. Onama will be most dangerous early, but if he doesn’t get the knockout, Landwehr could start to take over in the 3rd round. Could be a close fight.

Chris’ Pick: Onama by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Onama -135

Iasmin Lucindo vs Yazmin Jauregui

Iasmin Lucindo
Age: 20
Pro Record: 13-4
Key Wins: Beat an 8-3 grappler. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Yazmin Jauregui
Age: 23
Pro Record: 8-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I don’t say this about many prospects but Lucindo looks like a potential phenom. She took on Lucrezia Ria, who’s a solid prospect. She fought on the Contender. She’s got an 8-3 record with 7 submission wins. Legit 55 grappling. But Lucindo dominated her on the ground. In full control the whole fight. Lucindo also showed off 60 striking. Rare for a prospect to have skills like this. And what makes Lucindo even more rare is her age. 20 years old. She takes on another blue chip, elite prospect, fighting out of Entram in Mexico in Jauregui. Based on the fights I watched, her striking being a 60 is for sure. I didn’t see much wrestling in her fights but I’m pretty sure it’s a 55, but it’s possible it could be as low as a 50. And that will be a big problem for her against Lucindo, who had no problem taking down a grappler in Ria who I know for sure has 55 grappling. I see Lucindo getting take down after take down and cruising.

Chris’ Pick: Lucindo by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Lucindo -250

Azamat Murzakanov vs Devin Clark

Azamat Murzakanov
Age: 35
Pro Record: 11-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Tafon Nchukwi, Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Devin Clark
Age: 32
UFC Record: 7-6
Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight. Beat Alonzo Menifield and Mike Rodriguez.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Clark is coming off his first career UFC knockout over Knight. But I think that had more to do with Knight gassing out and being exhausted. I’m not ready to upgrade Clark’s power yet. Murzakanov had a close fight with Nchukwi before he got the KO win in the 3rd, but his tools were affirmed. Clark could test Murzakanov’s cardio here and that’s a slight threat but I think Murzakanov’s superior striking and monster power advantage will be too much.

Chris’ Pick: Murzakanov by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Murzakanov -250

Ariane Lipski vs Priscila Cachoeira

Ariane Lipski
Age: 28
UFC Record: 3-4
Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat Mandy Bohm.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Priscila Cachoeira
Age: 33
UFC Record: 3-4
Key Wins: Knocked out Gina Mazany and Shana Dobson. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I have no idea how the judges say Cachoeira beat Kim. Kim out struck Cachoeira by close to a 2 to 1 clip. Maybe because the judges thought Cachoeira has more power and did more damage. With Lipski, her wrestling might have taken a step forward. Previously I had her wrestling at a 55. She was taken down by 65 grappler Montana de la Rosa and dominated there. But Lipski took Bohm down and was able to control her for over 4 minutes. So Lipski’s wrestling is probably a 60 now. Which shouldn’t matter too much in this fight, unless Lipski wants to mix in a couple take downs. Would be smart to do it. I’m decenly confident Lipski has more power than Kim. Better striking than Cachoeira.

Chris’ Pick: Lipski by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Lipski -275

Gerald Meerschaert vs Bruno Silva

Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 34
UFC Record: 9-7
Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders.
Key Wins: Submitted Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Bruno Silva
Age: 32
Pro Record: 22-7
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

As the days go on, Silva’s loss to Alex Pereira is aging better and better. Seems like Pereira’s striking could be a 75 and it’s possible Silva’s striking could be a 70. Meerschaert’s last fight with Krzysztof Jotko went as expected. Jotko got a few take downs but I don’t think Meerschaert tried that hard to defend them or get back up as his best shot of working his submission game was from his back. Didn’t get the sub. Jotko better on the feet. This fight will obviously test Silva’s wrestling and I see the fight being a complete coin flip. Meerschaert should get some take downs and has a good chance of getting the submission. Meerschaert vs Muradov could totally play out here. But there’s a close to equal chance that in the middle of Meerschaert trying to get take downs, he could get knocked out on the feet. Likelihood of there being a finish is high.

Chris’ Pick: Silva by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Silva -125

Angela Hill vs Lupita Godinez

Angela Hill
Age: 37
UFC Record: 7-9
Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Ashley Yoder and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Lupita Godinez
Age: 28
Pro Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 3-1 at 115 lbs. 3-2 overall
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Beat Ariane Carnelossi and Loma Lookboonmee. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: plus (70)

In Hill’s last fight with Virna Jandiroba, the line closed with Jandiroba a -250 favorite. I thought the line was off and that Hill should be a slight favorite. Market probably thought Hill had 60 wrestling, but indeed her wrestling is a 65. She was able to get back up and defend submission attempts. Hill did out strike Jandiroba on the feet, even though there wasn’t much striking. Not a big enough sample for me to consider changing her grades. Godinez though really impressed by dominating Carnelossi. 13 minutes of the 15 minute fight was Godinez controlling 55 wrestler Carnelossi on the ground and landing strikes. It was so dominant I’m upgrading Godinez’s wrestling to a 70 and adding just a smidge of projection into grading her striking a 65. I have Carnelossi with 60 striking and when the fight was on the feet, Godinez out struck her 11 to 3. Small sample, but Godinez clearly with superior stand up. This fight should be really similar to Hill vs Jandiroba. Especially with both taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice, I see Godinez wanting to use her wrestling the whole fight thinking her cardio will hold up better than Hill’s.

Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Godinez -150

Martin Buday vs Lukasz Brzeski

Martin Buday
Age: 30
Pro Record: 10-1
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Chris Barnett.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Lukasz Brzeski
Age: 30
Pro Record: 8-1
Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 20-5 striker.
Striking: average (50)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Grappling: average (50)

Brzeski was decent on the Contender. Took on a 10-5 grappler who I think had 45 grappling. He might have had 50 grappling which means it’s possible Brzeski has 60 grappling, but I’m leaving it as a 55 for now. Striking with the grappler was close to equal so I’m pretty sure Brzeski has 50 striking. Buday won his 2nd UFC fight against Barnett by holding him in the clinch along the fence for most of the fight. I think Buday has better striking but it’s not my most confident pick.

Chris’ Pick: Buday by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Buday -175

Cynthia Calvillo vs Nina Nunes

Cynthia Calvillo
Age: 34
UFC Record: 5-1-1 at 115 lbs. 6-4-1 overall.
Key Draws: Fought Marina Rodriguez to a draw.
Key Wins: Submitted Poliana Botelho. Knocked out Montana de la Rosa. Beat Jessica Eye, Cortney Casey, Joanne Calderwood, and Gillian Robertson. Beat Aspen Ladd in an amateur bout in 2014.Tools:
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: plus (70)

Nina Nunes
Age: 36
UFC Record: 4-4
Key Losses: Lost to Juliana Lima and Justine Kish.
Key Wins: Beat Claudia Gadelha, Randa Markos, and Angela Hill.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Not really sure what types of skills we’re going to see here from Nunes. She’s only fought once in the past 3 years. 36 years old. And now she takes on another 70 grappler in Calvillo who returns to 115 lbs. And look, Calvillo’s biggest threat to losing this fight is the scale. She went 5-1-1 at 115 lbs. She should be 6-1 as I thought she had beat Rodriguez, but instead it was scored a draw. Calvillo didn’t do as well at 125 lbs because her best tool is her grappling and she was a smaller flyweight. Wasn’t as strong as most of her opponents. I rewatched Nunes fighting MacKenzie Dern and I really don’t think this fight will be too much different.

Chris’ Pick: Calvillo by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Calvillo -250

Gabriel Benitez vs Charlie Ontiveros

Gabriel Benitez
Age: 34
UFC Record: 6-6
Key Losses: Lost to Enrique Barzola.
Key Wins: Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

Charlie Ontiveros
Age: 31
Pro Record: 11-8
UFC Record: 0-2
Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-3 striker and a well rounded 1-0 fighter.
Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-0 striker.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: fringe average (45)

The numbers tell me that Ontiveros has 50 striking, but in watching him go against Steve Garcia, my eyes are telling me 55 striking. The problem for Ontiveros thus far has been being taken down early and quick. Being taken down by Kevin Holland at middleweight is understandable. But then moving back down to his best weight class at 170 lbs and being taken down and dominated by Garcia is another. So his wrestling is a 45 for me. And it’s possible that Benitez might have elevated his striking to a 65. He looked good against David Onama. And Benitez actually out struck him 45 to 35. But then Benitez got knocked out. The reason I’m keeping Benitez’s striking at a 60 though is because he always goes fast in the 1st round, emptying most of his gas tank. If the fight continued, could he keep up that output in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? I’m skeptical. But either way, Benitez is another guy with wrestling and he could take Ontiveros down even more easily than Garcia.

Chris’ Pick: Benitez by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Benitez -450

Ode Osbourne vs Tyson Nam

Ode Osbourne
Age: 30
UFC Record: 4-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Grappling: average (50)

Tyson Nam
Age: 38
UFC Record: 2-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Matt Schnell.
Key Wins: Knocked out Jerome Rivera.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Not much to learn from Osbourne’s last fight. Yes, the quick KO win over Adashev looked nice. But Adashev was out striking Obsourne 7 to 1 at that point. Not saying Adashev would’ve won, but I know Manel Kape has 65 striking and he had better striking than Osbourne, so I’m keeping Ode’s striking as a 60 for now. There’s a decent possibility that Nam’s striking is a 65. I recently came to the conclusion that Matt Schnell does indeed have 70 striking. But did Schnell improve after the Nam fight? Because when Schnell and Nam fought, the striking was close to equal. I might be wrong, but I think what happened was Schnell got better after the Nam fight. Tyson has had 5 fights in the UFC. Lot of pro fights. 38 years old. I’ve been confident in grading his striking a 60 this whole time, outside the Schnell fight so I’m going to leave the grade there. This is a very unpredictable fight because I’m not confident in both guys’ striking grades. Nam could grind out a win here with his wrestling, but Osbourne is 8 years younger and more on the way up.

Chris’ Pick: Osbourne by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Osbourne -125

Jason Witt vs Josh Quinlan

Jason Witt
Age: 35
UFC Record: 2-3
Key Losses: Knocked out by Matt Semelsberger and a 6-3 striker. Submitted by a 24-10 grappler.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Majority decision over Bryan Barberena.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

Josh Quinlan
Age: 28
Pro Record: 5-0
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

The Quinlan vs Logan Urban fight was interesting because Urban took the fight on 3 days notice. Quinlan opened as a -300 favorite. But the interesting part is that the line didn’t move. Books seemed to get equal amounts of money on both sides and the line closed with Quinlan still around -300. In any event, Quinlan knocked Urban out in 47 seconds, so you can’t really say that Urban lost from cardio. But things get murkier as the fight was over turned due to Quinlan testing positive for a banned substance. So I’m sticking with my original grades for Quinlan that I had going into the Contender. Witt was looking good in the 1st round with Phil Rowe. Took him down and controlled him most of the round. But Witt used too much cardio, couldn’t take Rowe down in the 2nd and Rowe had way more power, knocked Witt out. Witt should win this fight. Should be able to take Quinlan down. Should have the better striking. But it is possible Quinlan has 60 striking, I do know he’ll have more power than Rowe and I do know Witt is coming off a KO loss.

Chris’ Pick: Witt by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Witt -150

Youssef Zalal vs Da’Mon Blackshear

Youssef Zalal
Age: 25
UFC Record: 3-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson.
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Grappling: average (50)

Da’Mon Blackshear
Age: 27
Pro Record: 12-4
Key Wins: Submitted Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

In Sean Woodson’s last fight, he proved for sure his striking is a 65 and his wrestling is a 55. Which made me take a look back at Zalal wondering if I’m under rating him. Because the striking between Zalal and Woodson was close to equal and Zalal showed better wrestling. But upon further review, if you look at Zalal’s last fight before Woodson with 65 striker Seung Woo Choi, Choi did get the better of the striking. And Choi has 55 wrestling and the wrestling was close to equal, so I’m going to keep Zalal’s grades the same with the possibility I could be wrong. I watched Blackshear take on a well rounded 5-0 fighter. And he did well. Grappling went back and forth. Striking on the feet was close. Up until Blackshear landed a flying knee that hurt the opponent. Blackshear took the back and eventually sunk the choke in. 55 striking and grappling for me. So I like this fight for Zalal. His striking could be as high as a 65. He’s got experience. He’s 25 years old and hasn’t fought in a year so chances are good he shows up improved. He should win the striking exchanges.

Chris’ Pick: Zalal by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Zalal -250

Vera vs Cruz, Landwahr vs Onama, Lucindo vs Jauregui Fight Picks – August 13, 2022