
Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards 2
- Kamaru Usman
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 15-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Beat Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
The Edwards vs Diaz fight wasn’t supposed to be close. The line closed with Edwards as a -600 favorite. Foolish I thought. And not only did the fight get close at the very end, the numbers actually say the fight was close throughout. Even in rounds 1-4, the striking was close to equal. But I’m keeping Edwards with a 75 grade for his striking based on how he dominated Belal Muhammad in the 1 round of their fight. Because Muhammad proved in his fight with Vicente Luque he does have 70 striking. Usman’s last fight with Covington went similar to how the first fight went. Really close fight, but the difference was Usman’s power. They were equal everywhere else. I expect this fight to be close on the feet. And it’s possible Edwards might have unlocked some more power because he hurt Muhammad a couple times in their fight. Diaz is known for his durability so we can’t really learn anything power related from that fight. Usman should win here, should be able to get a couple take downs if he needs to. Has the mental advantage of winning the first fight between the two. Usman should win, but Edwards has a chance, especially if he’s able to unlock new power.
Chris’ Pick: Usman by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Usman -150
Luke Rockhold vs Paulo Costa
- Luke Rockhold
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Weidman. Submitted Lyoto Machida and Michael Bisping.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Paulo Costa
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. Split decision over Yoel Romero.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Who knows what we see from Rockhold. He hasn’t fought at middlweight in over 4 years. Rockhold has also been knocked out in 3 of his last 4 fights. His last fight at middleweight was against Yoel Romero. Showed 70 striking and 70 wrestling. But are his skills really still at that high of a level? Who knows. I have him graded with 65 striking and wrestling because he’s bound to show rust and very well will be gun shy against a guy like Costa. And despite the pre fight antics of Costa before the Vettori fight, Costa showed up. Showed he has 70 wrestling, has cardio to go 5 rounds. And the striking was very close to equal. I think Alexander Gustafsson recently coming back to take on Nikita Krylov is an example of how this fight could go. Gustafsson didn’t look good. He was finished pretty quick. I expect something similar to happen here.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Costa -250
Jose Aldo vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Jose Aldo
- Age: 35
- UFC/WEC Record: 3-2 at 135 lbs. 20-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Urijah Faber, and Frankie Edgar.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Beat Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
This fight really comes down to Aldo’s power vs Dvalishvili’s cardio. And it’s a 3 round fight which helps Aldo quite a bit. Aldo reaffirmed his tools in his last fight with Rob Font. And his power won him the fight because Font did out land by 135 to 75. Dvalishvili’s wrestling could be a 75. Hard to take too much away from his last fight with Moraes because Moraes blitzed Dvalishvili in the 1st round, going for the KO and gassed himself out in the process. But if we look at what happened before that with Stamann, I think we get a more clear picture of where his tools are at. He was able to take Stamann down, but Stamann kept getting up. Showing Dvalishvili has 70 wrestling. And Dvalishvili did out strike Stamann, showing the striking tool is a 65. This is just a horrible style match up for Dvalishvili. Because you can say that Dvalishvili will make Aldo wrestle all fight and tire him out, but Dvalishvili has to make it out of the 1st round to get there. Moraes came really close to knocking Dvalishvili out in the 1st round. I think Aldo gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Aldo by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aldo -175
Yanan Wu vs Lucie Pudilova
- Yanan Wu
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Lauren Mueller.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Lucie Pudilova
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Irene Aldana.
- Key Wins: Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Pudilova had a decent start to her UFC career. Started out 2-1 and was a young 23 year old. But then she lost 4 in a row and was cut. Her last UFC fight against 60 striker Justine Kish, Kish was able to out strike her. Since being cut, it looks like Pudilova has done well going 5-1, but only one of those wins was over a quality prospect and two of the five wins was via split decision. Yanan’s grappling got better. She took 60 grappler Mayra Bueno Silva down a couple times and had more control time then her, but she lost because Bueno Silva did out strike her. I think Yanan has more power than Pudilova and will probably take her down a few times.
Chris’ Pick: Yanan by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Yanan -150
Tyson Pedro vs Harry Hunsucker
- Tyson Pedro
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Khalil Rountree. Knocked out Paul Craig.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Harry Hunsucker
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-5
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
The hardest weight class to move up to is going from light heavyweight to heavyweight. And vice versa holds true too. This is going to be Hunsucker’s light heavyweight debut and that’s significant. His last fight with Justin Tafa only lasted 2 minutes, before Hunsucker got knocked out, but for what it’s worth, the striking was close to equal. And I have Tafa with 60 striking. So I’m not completely sure, but I’m also upgrading Hunsucker’s striking to a 60 because I think the tool will be more effective at 205 lbs. Pedro was away from the UFC for 3 and a half years. Really long time. He fought Ike Villanueva in his UFC return. Now, Pedro had been known for his grappling and I thought he’d take 55 striker Villanueva down quick, but instead he stood and exchanged strikes the whole time. He got the 1st round KO, but even more impressive, he out landed Villanueva 19 to 4. That’s a wipeout. Not close. I know that Villanueva has 55 striking, so I have no choice but to upgrade his striking to a 65. Now, logically, if he leveled up his striking by that big a jump, you’d think it’s possible his grappling has gotten better too, but that’s projection. We haven’t seen that yet, so I’m going to keep his grappling a 60 for now. Hunsucker should be better at light heavyweight, but he won’t be good enough with all the improvements Pedro has made.
Chris’ Pick: Pedro by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pedro -250
Marcin Tybura vs Alexandr Romanov
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Split decision over Juan Espino.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Okay, I’m finally convinced of Romanov’s grappling is a 70. I’m confident Chase Sherman has 60 wrestling. And Romanov took him down like it was nothing. Submitted him in 2 minutes. And I checked Romanov’s fight with Vanderaa again and the striking in that fight was close to equal. I know Vanderaa has 65 striking because I thought he beat Andrei Arlovski. So that would make Romanov’s striking a 65. And the Tybura vs Volkov fight was surprising. Surprising because Volkov was able to stuff all 16 of Tybura’s take down attempts. But most surprising that Tybura’s striking improved. We all know Volkov has 70 striking. And the 1st round went as I expected striking wise. Volkov out landing 16 to 7. But then in the 2nd round, Tybura actually out struck Volkov 20 to 14. Volkov went on to win the fight, but it was close and enough for me to upgrade Tybura’s striking to a 70, albeit with 60 power. So this should be a good fight. Romanov has a lot of momentum. But I think Tybura will be able to keep the fight on the feet and show superior striking. He just has to look out for Romanov’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Tybura by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Tybura -125
Leonardo Santos vs Jared Gordon
- Leonardo Santos
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 7-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Norman Parke to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray. Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Danny Chavez and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I thought Gordon’s wrestling was a 65, but that turned out not to be the case in his last fight with Grant Dawson. Striking was close, showing they both have 60 striking, but Dawson won because he was able to take Gordon down and control him there most of the fight, showing his wrestling had improved to a 70. And my opinion on Santos’ skills haven’t changed. He lost to Clay Guida because he was close to knocking Guida out in the 1st round of the fight but Guida is durable and Santos gassed himself out. But by contrast, Santos was 1 second away from beating Dawson. Santos was winning their fight, but Dawson knocked him out at the 4:59 mark. I am going to upgrade Santos power to a 65 though because he has 2 KOs in the UFC in 7 UFC wins and he was really close to getting #3. I like Santos to bounce back here. He’ll get a couple take downs, but catch Gordon in a submission, but he’ll have better striking and way more power.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Santos -250
Sean Woodson vs Luis Saldana
- Sean Woodson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin and a 6-1 grappler. Beat Kyle Bochniak. Split decision over Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Luis Saldana
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-7
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-4 fighter. Lost to a 1-1 fighter and a 2-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat Bruno Souza and Jordan Griffin.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Both guys showed by improvements. Saldana’s wrestling looked drastically improved in the Souza fight. I thought Souza had 60 wrestling, could be more like a 55 after Saldana took him down multiple times. He also surprisingly out struck Souza. Woodson made even bigger improvements though. I think his striking was a 60, took on 55 striker Anglin. But he out landed Anglin 48 to 8. Total blow out. So I’m upgrading the striking and the power to a 65. Although the Souza KO was only Woodson’s 3rd career knockout in 9 pro wins, the last couple fights, it’s looking like he’s unlocking more power. 55 grappler Anglin also never got close to taking Woodson down. Whether Woodson’s wrestling is a 55 or 60 could determine the fight. Saldana could get some take downs but Woodson should land more and do enough damage to win.
Chris’ Pick: Woodson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Woodson -175
AJ Fletcher vs Ange Loosa
- AJ Fletcher
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Ange Loosa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Loosa did okay in his last fight. Took on 60 striker Mounir Lazzez. Was out struck. But it is possible that Loosa’s wrestling could be a 60 because I thought Lazzez’s wrestling was a 60. Tried to take Loosa down and wasn’t able to do it. But I think it’s more likely Lazzez’s wrestling is a 55. I am pretty sure that Fletcher has 60 wrestling with how he was able to get take downs on Matthew Semelsberger. And his striking could be a 60. The line closed with Semelsberger a -200 favorite because the market thinks he has 60 striking, while I think it’s a 55. Turned out the striking in the fight was close to equal, but does that mean they both have 55 striking or 60? Maybe we’ll find out after Semelsberger takes on Alex Morono at UFC 277. But I think Fletcher has 55 striking. Close fight. And if Fletcher’s game plan was to take Semelsberger down, I expect him to try to do that with Loosa. I’m picking Fletcher because I do think he’ll get a couple take downs and his striking is likely closer to a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Fletcher by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fletcher -135
Amir Albazi vs Francisco Figueiredo
- Amir Albazi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Malcolm Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Francisco Figueiredo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-4-1
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Daniel da Silva. Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jerome Rivera.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Albazi looks like a potential contender. Only 2 fights into his UFC career and I can confidently say his grappling is at least a 65 and could be a 70 as his grappling was slightly better than 65 wrestler Zhumagulov. Striking between them was close to equal. Not much to take out of Figueiredo’s last fight, knee barring Daniel da Silva in a little over a minute. Not enough time to really know if Francisco has gotten better. I do know that even if Figueiredo’s grappling has improved to a 65, it won’t matter. I see Albazi’s superior striking winning him the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Albazi by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Albazi -225
Qileng Aori vs Jay Perrin
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 19-9
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out Cameron Else and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jay Perrin
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 12-4 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I thought Else had 60 striking going into the Qileng fight. Qileng got the quick KO in under 3 minutes, but while the fight lasted, Qileng did out strike Else. Maybe Qileng’s striking has elevated to a 65 but I think it’s more likely Else’s striking is a 55. But wow, Perrin impressed me in his last fight. He leveled up. He was able to get back up when taken down by Mario Bautista and the striking with 55 striker Bautista was close to equal. But after Bautista fought Perrin, he took on Brian Kelleher, took him down a couple times and got a rear naked choke in less than 3 minutes. Now here’s the question. Did that happen because Bautista leveled up after the Perrin fight. Or was he already leveled up in the Perrin fight and Perrin is better than where I’ve graded him? I think Bautista showed up to the Kelleher fight with 65 grappling, but I could be wrong. If I’m right, Qileng should out strike Perrin.
Chris’ Pick: Qileng by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Qileng -200
Victor Altamirano vs Daniel da Silva
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Daniel da Silva
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I’m very sure that Hernandez has 60 striking and 55 wrestling. I was very sure that Hernandez would beat Altamirano. And he did. But the fight turned out to be way, way closer than I thought it would be. Striking and grappling was close to equal, meaning that I was under rating Altamirano. Da Silva got submitted by knee bar by Francisco Figueiredo in his last fight, so not too much to take away from that from a skills perspective, but I am decently confident I have him graded accurately. Stand up fight. I think da Silva wins because he has more power and will do more damage.
Chris’ Pick: da Silva by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: da Silva -125