Gane vs Tuivasa, Whittaker vs Vettori, di Chirico vs Kopylov Fight Picks – September 3, 2022

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa

  • Ciryl Gane
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 7-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser.
  • Striking: plus plus (80)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Tai Tuivasa
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 8-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski. 
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Derek Lewis has proven his striking is a 65. So when he fought Tuivasa, Lewis actually landed more. But only by 11 to 8. Not a big enough sample for me to move Tuivasa’s striking off a 70 grade. He proved to have 70 striking but out landing against 70 striker Sakai. Gane was on his way to becoming heavyweight champion in his title fight with Ciryl Gane until Ngannou switched things up and started wrestling him. I thought Ngannou had better wrestling going into the fight and I was right. Ngannou proved to have 70 wrestling in the Miocic fight and proved Gane’s wrestling is a 65. But on the feet, Gane elevated his striking to a top of the scale 80 grade and it’s his cardio and foot work that really puts it over the top. I see this fight with Tuivasa being similar to Gane’s fight with Lewis. Gane will be too fast, have too big a gas tank, will be too hard to hit. Gane should cruise here.

Chris’ Pick: Gane by 4th round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Gane -500


Robert Whittaker vs Marvin Vettori

  • Robert Whittaker
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 11-2 at 185 lbs.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice), Jared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Marvin Vettori
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 7-3-1
  • Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
  • Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw. 
  • Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez. 
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Vettori reaffirmed his skills in the Costa fight, which he barely won. Costa had more power and was landing heavy shots. But it was Vettori’s cardio that helped him squeak out the win. Whittaker also reaffirmed his tools in his second fight with Israel Adesanya. Striking close to equal. Got a few take downs to show off his 70 wrestling. Whittaker’s gone 5 rounds way more than Vettori has so cardio shouldn’t be an issue for Whittaker. Fight seems pretty simple to win. Whittaker has proven to have the better striking. I don’t see any path to victory for Vettori.

Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Whittaker -275


Alessio di Chirico vs Roman Kopylov

  • Alessio di Chirico
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-6
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Eric Spicely. Lost to Bojan Velickovic.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley. Split decision win over Julian Marquez.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: average (50)
  • Roman Kopylov
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Not much new on di Chirico. It’s been a year since he was knocked out by Abdul Razak Alhassan. He’s only had about 3 minutes of cage time in the last 3 years. I think his fight with Makhmud Muradov is the best measuring stick of where he’s at. Muradov has 65 striking and out landed di Chirico by a bit showing di Chirico has 60 striking. Nothing has changed since then for me to change where I have his skills at. Kopylov’s last fight with Albert Duraev was interesting. Kopylov showed great tale down defense but when 65 wrestler Duraev got him down in the 2nd round, he couldn’t get back up. But when Duraev tried to take him down again in the 3rd round, he couldn’t get back up. Should be a close fight but Kopylov should have a wrestling advantage and his striking is closer to a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Kopylov by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Kopylov -150


Nasrat Haqparast vs John Makdessi

  • Nasrat Haqparast  
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 5-4
  • Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat Rafa Garcia and Marc Diakiese. 
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • John Makdessi
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 11-7
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Lando Vannata. Split decision loss to Yancy Medeiros.
  • Key Wins: Split decision over Ignacio Bahamondes.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Makdessi has had 18 fights in the UFC, is 37 years old, but he’s still peaking. This is the best he’s ever been. And his striking is now super close to a 65 as 65 striker Ignacio Bahamondes out landed him, but not by much. Makdessi also proved his 60 wrestling by stuff all 4 of 55 wrestler Bahamondes’ take down attempts. Early in Haqparast’s UFC career, he looked like a potential contender. But he’s now 5-4 in the UFC and kinda plateaued a bit. Got a step up in competition with Dan Hooker and Bobby Green and didn’t show any real improvements. His last fight with 70 striker Green, Haqparast was out struck by more than a 2 to 1 clip. Haqparast is 11 years younger, so statistically, that’s a big deal. But the reality is that Makdessi’s trajectory has been going up lately while Haqparast’s has been flat. Makdessi’s striking should be slightly better, but Haqparast does have more power, so it’s in coin flip territory for me.

Chris’ Pick: Haqparast by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Haqparast -135


William Gomis vs Jarno Errens

  • William Gomis
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Jarno Errens
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 13-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 23-7 fighter. Beat a 9-2 grappler and an 8-2 grappler.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Grappling: fringe average (45)

Looking at Errens resume, he has 5 submission wins and 3 KOs. He also has 5 decision wins. You’d think this guy is a grappler. But he’s a kickboxer. He point fights with not much power. And his second to last fight was against a 9-3 grappler who I thought had 50 grappling. Errens was taken down and unable to get back up. For over 4 rounds in a 5 round fight. Errens wasn’t able to get back up. Was controlled. So maybe the opponent had 55 grappling. Leaves me no choice but to grade Errens grappling a 45. And with 3 knockouts in 13 wins, the power is a 40 for me. Maybe his striking is a 55 but I have it as a 50 for now. In the second to last fight for Gomis, he took on a 6-1 wrestler and was really impressive. I thought the opponent had 55 wrestling. They grappled for most of the fight with Gomis winning almost the whole time. Finally Gomis landed ground and pound from guard and it was all over. So I’m grading Gomis’ wrestling a 60, but it’s possible it’s a 55. Big mismatch here, Errens is probably the best the UFC could do on less than 2 weeks notice.

Chris’ Pick: Gomis by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Gomis -500


Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain

  • Nathaniel Wood
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez, Beat Charles Rosa.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Charles Jourdain
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 4-4-1
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Shane Burgos.
  • Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Andre Ewell.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

I think Jourdain got robbed in his last fight with the judges giving Shane Burgos the win. Jourdain out struck Burgos 68 to 28. Biggest thing that jumped out was how much better Jourdain’s cardio was. I know Burgos has 65 striking so I’m elevating Jourdain’s striking to a 70. But Jourdain’s grappling is still a 60 as Burgos was able to use his 65 wrestling to get a couple take downs and log some control time. Rosa did get a couple take downs on Wood, surprised that happened. But I still believe Wood’s grappling is a 70 based on how he did with 70 wrestler Casey Kenney. Their grappling was close to equal. I think Wood just preferred to stand with 60 striker Rosa thinking that’s where the least danger was and he out landed Rosa by a 2 to 1 clip. I see a clear advantage for Wood in this fight with taking Jourdain down. If Burgos had some success there, then surely Wood would be able to as well.

Chris’ Pick: Wood by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Wood -225


Dustin Stoltzfus vs Abusupiyan Magomedov

  • Dustin Stoltzfus
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 14-4
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Dwight Grant and a 10-2 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Abusupiyan Magomedov
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 24-4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted a 12-0 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Stoltzfus vs Grant went as I expected. Striking was close with 60 striker Grant, but Grant had more power. But Stoltzfus won the fight with his wrestling. One of Magomedov’s last fights was against a 7-3 striker who I thought had 50 striking and 50 wrestling. Magomedov got the better of the striking exchanges and was able to take the opponent down and control him on the ground. However that fight happened back in 2018. Magomedov hasn’t fought a lot recently. Fought once in 2019, once in 2020. Hasn’t fought since then. So who knows how much better he’s been getting and it’s possible he might be a little better than where I’m grading him right now. Which ultimately makes this a coin flip fight. I give Stoltzfus a slight edge in the striking but Magomedov should have more power.

Chris’ Pick: Stoltzfus by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Stoltzfus -125


Fares Ziam vs Michal Figlak

  • Fares Ziam
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 12-4
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Michal Figlak
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 15-3 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Even though Ziam got steamrolled by Terrance McKinney in his last fight, I still believe in his tools being what I graded them. We’ve seen a lot of Jamie Mullarkey now, I know Mullarkey has 65 striking and the striking in the Ziam vs Mullarkey fight was close to equal. I recently upgraded Ziam’s wrestling to a 60 based on how he did in the Luigi Vendramini fight, but it’s possible the tool could be a 55. Figlak’s last fight was against a well rounded 15-3 fighter that I think has 55 tools. Striking was close to equal, but Figlak was able to pull away towards the end of the fight with his 60 wrestling and superior cardio. Figlak is a quality prospect, but Ziam is a stiff test in his UFC debut. I see Ziam being able to stuff take downs and cruise on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ziam -400


Nassourdine Imavov vs Joaquin Buckley

  • Nassourdine Imavov
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Jordan Williams and a 12-4 grappler.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Joaquin Buckley
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 14-4
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

When Buckley fought Duraev, the line closed with Duraev as a -250 favorite. So the market thought Duraev would be able to win with take downs, not sure if they thought Duraev had 70 wrestling or Buckley with 55 wrestling. I disagreed, picking Buckley, thinking he’d be able to get back up if taken down and that’s exactly what happened confirming Buckley has 60 wrestling. His 65 striking was also reaffirmed in the fight. Im fairly confident Imavov had 60 wrestling going into the Shahbazyan fight. The market disagreed with me as the line closed as a pick em. And sure enough, the market was right. Or, Imavov improved his wrestling to a 65. Either way, the fight with Shahbazyan was close to equal the whole way through, but Shahbazyan’s downfall was his lack of cardio. This should be a fun fight, but make no mistake, Imavov is a clear tier above Buckley in both striking and wrestling. Look for Imavov to use his reach advantage, stay at range and pick Buckley apart.

Chris’ Pick: Imavov by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Imavov -250


Benoit St Denis vs Gabriel Miranda

  • Benoit St. Denis
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out a 13-4 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Gabriel Miranda
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 16-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

While watching St. Denis vs Stolze, I discovered an important bit of news I was unaware of. St. Denis made his UFC debut above his natural weight class against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at 170 lbs. This fight with Stolze was at 155 lbs. That’s a big deal and helps to explain how St. Denis dominated a Stolze on the ground. I had Stolze with 60 grappling, so it’s possible St. Denis’ grappling is as high as a 70, but it’s more likely that Stolze’s grappling is a 55 instead. Miranda hasn’t been that active, only 5 fights in the last 4 years. I watched one of his last fights with a 9-0 grappler who I thought had 50 striking and 55 wrestling. Going in, Miranda’s resume made it appear his grappling was a 60, but Miranda was out grappled in the fight. His opponent probably has 60 wrestling, Miranda’s grappling is very likely a 55. And I highly doubt that’s going to be good enough against St. Denis who has proved his 65 grappling. St. Denis is better everywhere and by a wide margin.

Chris’ Pick: St. Denis by decision.

What I think the odds should be: St. Denis -600


Khalid Taha vs Cristian Quinonez

  • Khalid Taha
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 13-4
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a 10-2 grappler and a 5-1 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: average (50)
  • Cristian Quinonez
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 17-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 striker, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a 9-0 striker, a 6-1 grappler and a 13-1 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Taha returns after a year long layoff. He’s been fighting once a year since 2020. He got upset in his last fight with Sergey Morozov. Well, turns out Morozov is really good. Morozov was able to use his 65 wrestling to take Taha down and control him. Where things get interesting though is the striking. Present day, I have Morozov’s striking graded a 65. Taha fought 65 striker Raoni Barcelos and Barcelos definitely out struck him. Showing Taha’s striking is a 60. Then next fight, Taha takes on Morozov and the stand up is close to equal. So what happened? Did Taha elevate his striking to a 60? Was Morozov’s striking a 60 in that fight and then level up after? I’m not sure, but I’m going to keep Taha’s striking a 60 for now. The Quinonez vs Long fight was very interesting. Quinonez closed at -575. Big favorite. And I agreed with that as I had Long with 50 striking and wrestling. But the striking turned out to be close to equal. Matter of fact Long out struck Quinonez 78 to 70. Crazy. So what happened? Clearly, Long is better than everybody thought. But does that mean Quinonez isn’t as good as we thought? That’s possible too. But he trains out of Entram gym, was one of Brandon Moreno’s main training partners. I’m keeping his grades where they were for now.

Chris’ Pick: Quinonez by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Quinonez -150


Stephanie Egger vs Ailin Perez

  • Stephanie Egger
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Rose Clark. Knocked out Shanna Young and Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Ailin Perez
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: average (50)

Perez looks like a quality prospect. I watched her take on 4-5 fighter that I thought had well rounded 45 tools. Perez was able to take her down showing her wrestling is probably a 50. Showed off 55 striking. And Perez’s only loss was a DQ loss due to an illegal knee. Otherwise, she’d be undefeated. Neither Fairn or Perez has wins over any quality prospects, but Fairn has been in the octagon with title contenders like Anderson and Spencer, showing her striking is probably at a higher level than Perez’s, with margin. And just like flash knockouts sometimes happen, quick submissions happen sometimes too. Sometimes fighters get caught and I think that was the case in Egger’s last fight with Mayra Bueno Silva. I’m still confident in her tools though based on what she showed in submitting Clark. But here, she steps in on less than 2 weeks notice and moving up a weight class. So it’s possible at 135 lbs, her striking could be more like a 55 and the grappling a 60. But the 60 grappling should still be enough to get the job done in taking Perez down.

Chris’ Pick: Egger by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Egger -200

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