Yusaku Kinoshita vs Jose Henrique
- Yusaku Kinoshita
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jose Henrique
- Age: 20
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Split decision win over a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Kinoshita’s only loss was by disqualification because of a fence grab. But I watched the fight, it was against a 19-6 wrestler who I think has 50 striking and 50 wrestling. And the fight was in Rizin where they allow Pride style soccer kicks and foot stomps. Kinoshita out classed him on the feet. Knocked him down. And knocked him out with a couple of foot stomps, but while he did the stomps, he grabbed the fence for leverage and was disqualified. So Kinoshita has never been bested. Henrique is even younger than Kinoshita at 20 years old. He took on a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter that I thought had 50 tools last time out. Henrique won by split decision, but I thought the judges gave him a gift and that he had lost the fight. I’m pretty confident Henrique’s opponent had 50 striking, 50 wrestling. Mostly a stand up fight that was close to even in the 1st and 3rd rounds, with Henrique clearly losing the 2nd round. This fight is all about Kinoshita’s coming out party. Based on how I thought Henrique lost to a much lesser fighter, he’s not going to be able to withstand the speed and power of Kinoshita.
Chris’ Pick: Kinoshita by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kinoshita -350
Matej Penaz vs Sedriques Dumas
- Matej Penaz
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: fringe average (45)
- Sedriques Dumas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Dumas took on a 10-6 striker in his last fight and proved that he can wrestle too. I think the opponent had 50 striking and 45 wrestling. Dumas was able to take him down and control him most of the fight. Penaz’s last fight was against a 14-6 striker who I’m pretty sure has 50 striking and 45 wrestling. Or so I thought. Because the opponent was able to clinch Penaz against the fence and control him there for most of the fight. Which means he probably has 50 wrestling, which would mean Penaz’s wrestling is a 45. Which will be a problem against someone like Dumas who’s way more well rounded. Dumas should cruise here with the same strategy in his last fight.
Chris’ Pick: Dumas by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Dumas -225
Rodrigo Lidio vs Mateusz Rebecki
- Rodrigo Lidio
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 12-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 wrestler, a 9-1 grappler and a 16-5 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Mateusz Rebecki
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
In Lidio’s last fight, he affirmed his tools. Took on a 9-1 grappler who I think had 50 striking, 40 power, 55 grappling. Lidio got taken down a few times in the 1st round. Probably lost the 1st round because of it. But every fight starts on the feet and Lidio knocked his opponent out with a jab at the start of the 2nd round. I watched Rebecki take on a 12-2 grappler who I thought had 50 striker and 55 grappling. Rebecki was extremely impressive, out classing his opponent on the feet. And dominating him on the ground. The 12-2 grappler is really good but Rebecki made him look like he didn’t belong there. Looks like a 65 wrestling tool for Rebecki. In my opinion, this is a bit of a mismatch. Lidio was taken down by a guy with 55 grappling. Now he takes on Rebecki. I think this is one of the safer bets we get on the Contender.
Chris’ Pick: Rebecki by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rebecki -500
Maria Silva vs Victoria Dudakova
- Maria Silva
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Victoria Dudakova
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Dudakova did okay against a well rounded 4-1 fighter who I thought had 50 tools. They grappled most of the fight with Dudakova getting the better of it. SIlva was a -450 favorite on the Contender against Kathyrn Paprocki, I agreed with that as I thought Paprocki had 50 tools. Silva cruised in the fight, but not because of the striking as expected. Turns out her wrestling was better than I thought, a 60 grade. Silva controlled Paprocki for most of the fight, especially the second half of the fight. I don’t really see Dudakova posing much of a threat anywhere. Even if Dudakova’s grappling is more of a 60, the tool is still not going to be good enough to take Silva down. And on the feet, Silva is better there by a wide margin.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -250
Alex Morgan vs Blake Bilder
- Alex Morgan
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out TJ Laramie twice. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Blake Bilder
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter and a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Bilder’s last win was a triumphant one, knocking out a well rounded 6-3 fighter who I think has 50 tools. But it was Bilder’s first career KO and had a lot to do with the opponent gassing out. Bilder was also dropped a few times as well, but I give him credit for being durable and persevering through that. He was able to get take downs and show off 55 grappling. Morgan’s 11-4 pro record isn’t as shiny, but he has not one, but two KO wins over current UFC fighter TJ Laramie. He also went toe to toe with rising contender Charles Jourdain and Morgan did okay in that fight, up until when he got knocked out. Jourdain landed a few more shots, but it wasn’t a blow out. Morgan has also proved vs Laramie that his wrestling is at least a 55, could be a 60. Not only does Morgan have better skills than Bilder, but he also has way more experience and already knows he can hang with UFC fighters.
Chris’ Pick: Morgan by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Morgan -300