Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo
- Alexa Grasso
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 125 lbs. 6-3 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Wood. Beat Maycee Barber, Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Andrea Lee, Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa ,and Alexis Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
The Araujo vs Lee fight was really interesting. Going into it, I thought Lee had 65 striking and 70 grappling based off of how she stuff take downs against Cynthia Calvillo. I thought Araujo should’ve been favored because I thought she’d have a striking advantage and big power advantage but the line closed at a near pick em. Which means the market must have thought the striking would be close to equal. Well, it turns out the striking was close to equal, that Lee’s striking looks like a 70. But what surprised everyone was Araujo’s wrestling dominance. She only needed a few take downs to control Lee most of the fight. Which means maybe Calvillo’s grappling is only a 65 and maybe Lee’s grappling is only a 65. Either way, I have no choice but to upgrade Araujo’s wrestling to a 75. She clearly got better there. And yes, Grasso got a 1st round submission win in her last fight with Wood. But Wood has 60 grappling. Grasso got a couple take downs, took her back, got a choke and it was over. But that was Grasso’s very first submission win in her whole pro career. And I dodn’t see enough to upgrade her wrestling to a 70. I actually think her wrestling is on a similar level of where Lee’s is at. And we saw what Araujo was able to do. I see Araujo going back to her wrestling here.
Chris’ Pick: Araujo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Araujo -225
Cub Swanson vs Jonathan Martinez
- Cub Swanson
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 13-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda. Beat Doo Ho Choi and Kron Gracie.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Vince Morales, Alejandro Perez, Thomas Almeida, and Zviad Lavishvili.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’ve been going back and forth the past year on whether Martinez’s striking is a 65 or a 60. I had the tool graded a 60 going into his last fight with 60 striker Morales and sure enough, Martinez provides clarity, clearly out strikes Morales. 65 striking for me. So Swanson looked great starching Elkins. Which was really, really surprising considering how durable Elkins has been. Swanson landed 16 shots to 2. But the lopsided numbers have more to do with Elkins being hurt early and not recovering. So I’m going to keep Swanson’s grades the same, because he has looked improved in 2 of the last 3 fights, the exception, getting knocked out by Giga Chikadze. Martinez should win here, but if Swanson is smart, he should do something he doesn’t normally do, which is use his wrestling for offense. He’s going to need to mix in some take downs to win, but even still, I see Martinez landing enough on the feet to win.
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Martinez -135
Askar Askarov vs Brandon Royval
- Askar Askarov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler, a well rounded 19-6 fighter, a well rounded 37-5 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out a 9-2 grappler. Beat Joseph Benavidez, Alexandre Pantoja, and Tim Elliott.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Rogerio Bontorin.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The Royval vs Schnell fight was fun while it lasted. Striking on the feet was about equal. Grappling went back and forth at a furious pace. I think Royval caught Schnell when he was vulnerable. Schnell was squeezing right tight for a choke, didn’t get it, then Royval jumped on him with a guillotine. Royval’s tools stay the same for me. Askarov had success taking out grappling Kai Kara France in the 1st round, but I think he got too aggressive going for the finish and gassed out a bit. After that, he wasn’t able to take Kara France down anymore, but the wrestling is still a 75 for me. Royval is going to have to show up with improved wrestling and take down defense to win this fight. He down have an aggressive guard, but it’s tough to catch someone as skilled as Askarov in a submission from the back.
Chris’ Pick: Askarov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Askarov -250
Jordan Wright vs Dusko Todorovic
- Jordan Wright
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Dusko Todorovic
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maki Pitolo, Michel Pereira, and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
All 12 of Wright’s wins have come by finish. Zero decision wins. And we’ve seen why. 5 of Wright’s 6 UFC fights have ended in less than 3 minutes. That’s crazy. Anyway, I can’t change his striking grade as he out landed Marc Andre Barriault 6 to 2, because he tapped to a guillotine choke before we could see more. I have his striking as a 65 for now, but it could very well be a 60 if he doesn’t have the cardio carry the same pace over 3 rounds. It’s also possible his grappling could be a 60, but we just never see it. Todorovic wanted nothing to do with Chidi Njokuani’s striking. Tried to take him down repeatedly. Got 2 take downs out of 7 attempts. Couldn’t keep Njokuani on the ground. Then got knocked out. Chidi out landed him 5 to 0. Despite the result, my grades for Todorovic is staying the same. Todorovic has been knocked out in 2 of his last 4 fights. He’s going to want nothing to do with Wright and his 1st round blitz. This fight will test Wright’s grappling. I just don’t see how Wright is going to have cardio to wrestle for 3 rounds because that’s all Todorovic will want to do here.
Chris’ Pick: Todorovic by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Todorovic -175
Misha Cirkunov vs Alonzo Menifield
- Misha Cirkunov
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-4 at 205 lbs. 6-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute, Nikita Krylov, and Ion Cutelaba.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I don’t want to take too much away from Cirkunov’s last fight with Wellington Turman because Turman is 25 years old and think he showed up way better. I am though very confident Jotko has 65 wrestling and Cirkunov was able to take him down multiple times. I still like Menifield long term as a possible contender, but this is just a horrible matchup for him. I still believe in Cirkunov’s grappling being a 70. He should be able to get Menifield down and will eventually get the submission.
Chris’ Pick: Cirkunov by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Cirkunov -200
Mana Martinez vs Brandon Davis
- Mana Martinez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler and a 3-0 wrestler. Split decision over Guido Cannetti.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Brandon Davis
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Giga Chikadze and Kyung Ho Kang.
- Key Wins: Submitted Randy Costa.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Martinez made it close at the very end of his fight with 65 wrestler Ronnie Lawrence. Lawrence wrestled and controlled him for the first 2 rounds, but was gassed out by the 3rd where Martinez took over and almost finished Lawrence. But Martinez’s tools stay the same for me. My opinion of Davis’ skills haven’t changed since his last fight. Got knocked out in 2 minutes by Batgerel Danaa. It happens. Stand up fight. Martinez will have more power, but I think Davis will use his reach to stay at range and win on points.
Chris’ Pick: Davis by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Davis -150
Raphael Assuncao vs Victor Henry
- Raphael Assuncao
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Wins: Beat Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Bryan Caraway. Split decision wins over Marlon Moraes, Aljamain Sterling, and TJ Dillashaw (2013).
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Victor Henry
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 22-5
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision over Kyler Phillips.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
It’s hard to know how much of Henry upsetting Barcelos had to do with Henry being legit vs Barcelos not respecting his opponent. But the fact that Henry took the fight on short notice means he’s very likely legit with at least 65 striking and wrestling. Ricky Simon closed as a -300 favorite against Assuncao. Not sure why. Maybe they thought Assuncao had 60 striking. In any case, the 1st round played out how I thought it would. with 75 wrestler Simon getting a couple take downs. Striking was close to equal, showing Assuncao does have 65 striking. But then Simon landed the KO in the 2nd and that was it. I have both guys graded almost identical except for the grappling. Assuncao has a big edge and that tool doesn’t regress much even when fighters turn 40 years old.
Chris’ Pick: Assuncao by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Assuncao -150
Nick Maximov vs Jacob Malkoun
- Nick Maximov
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Cody Brundage and an 11-2 wrestler. Split decision over Punahele Soriano.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jacob Malkoun
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat AJ Dobson and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Not sure what to make of Andre Petroski submitting Maximov in a little over a minute. I think some of it had to do with Petroski showing up improved. I also think part of it was Maximov not respecting his opponent just leaving his neck hanging out when going for a single leg. I’ve seen enough of Maximov to leave his tools as is for now. Brendan Allen entered as a -300 favorite over Malkoun, likely because the market thought Allen would be able to out strike Malkoun. I agreed with that as well. But amazingly, Malkoun was able to match Allen’s 65 striking. Grappling went back and forth and fight could’ve been ruled a draw. It was that close. Maximov will be forced to stand and strike here and I’m confident Malkoun will get the better of it.
Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Malkoun -450
Joanderson Brito vs Lucas Alexander
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-3-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Andre Fili and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Lucas Alexander
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Brito knocking out Fili in less than a minute looks nice, but those things happen sometimes. Not a big enough sample size for me to elevate his his striking grade. Especially with Fili landing one more shot than Brito 6 to 5. At best, Jacob Kilburn has 55 striking and 50 wrestling. And me saying his wrestling is a 50 is a compliment because back when he was in the UFC, he’d get taken down in seconds. 45 wrestling at best when he was in the UFC. He’s been at American Top Team, probably working on his wrestling. Anyway, Alexander fought Kilburn last time out. And the wrestling was close to equal. Kilburn actually used the clinch on the fence. Went for a couple take downs, didn’t get them. Striking was also close to equal. Alexander has zero wins over quality prospects and yet has only 3 finishes in 7 wins. All 3 by KO. And the 3rd KO came due to Kilburn’s injury. 45 power for me. However. Alexander has 3 KO wins in a row. He now trains at Fusion Xcel in Florida. It’s possible he could be unlocking some power. And it’s also possible Alexander’s striking is a 60 as he was starting to turn things up against Kilburn in the 2nd round, cardio looked good. But Alexander is also taking this fight on a week’s notice. Brito should have better striking, should have more power, should have a bigger gas tank, should be able to take Alexander down. But it’s also possible Alexander could blitz Brito in the 1st round and knock him out.
Chris’ Pick: Brito by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Brito -225
Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes
- Piera Rodriguez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-4 grappler and a 3-1 grappler. Beat Kay Hansen and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-4
- UFC Record: -3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Majority decision over Istela Nunes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Rodriguez closed as a -135 favorite over Hansen, with the market thinking close fight, 60 wrestler Hansen might get some take downs, but Rodriguez should land more and enough on the feet to win. But amazingly, it turns out Rodriguez’s wrestling is better than Hansen’s. 65 grade for me. And Rodriguez did land more than 55 striker Hansen did. When Hughes vs Reed was on the feet, 60 striker Reed did land more shots 12 to 6. But that’s not a big enough sample size for me to make any changes to how I see their striking tools. Based on how Reed just did with Melissa Martinez, I know Reed’s striking isn’t better than a 60. And I’m decently confident Hughes’ striking is better than a 55. But obviously Hughes took a huge step forward in her wrestling being able to take Reed down and control her for most of the fight. This fight with Rodriguez will definitely test Hughes striking, but the problem for her is regardless of if her striking is a 60 or not, Rodriguez for sure will have more power.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -175
Tatsuro Taira vs CJ Vergara
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted a 6-2 striker. Beat Carlos Candelario.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (60)
- CJ Vergara
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-3-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Market closed with Taira as a -300 favorite, but it turned out to be a close fight. I think the line was way off because Taira came in with a lot of hype and Candelario was probably under rated. Taira got the better of 60 striker Candelario in the 1st round, but the 2nd round had Candelario out landing him 4 to 2. 3rd round had no striking. Grappling went back and forth and was about equal. A lot of Vergara winning had to do with Rodrigues gassing out. But a lot of it also had to do with Vergara being good in his own right. 65 striker Rodrigues out struck Vergara by a 2 to 1 clip in the 1st round, but the 2nd and 3rd rounds were close to equal. And the grappling went back and forth. I like Taira here because he should have better wrestling and his striking is probably closer to a 65 than Vergara’s.
Chris’ Pick: Taira by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Taira -175
Pete Rodriguez vs Mike Jackson
- Pete Rodriguez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 4-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Mike Jackson
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 1-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: below average (40)
Dean Barry came in as a monster -1100 favorite when he took on Jackson. A line that I thought was insane because of how unknown both guys were. And yes, Jackson cashed those +700 tickets on a DQ win, but let’s look at the numbers while the fight went on. Yes, Barry out struck Jackson, but it was only by 26 to 18. That’s no blow out. Also because of what my eyes saw, I’m going to go out on a limb and grade Jackson’s striking a 50, but it could very well be a 45. And yes, Rodriguez was knocked out by Jack Della Maddalena in his UFC debut. But Rodriguez landed some shots too. Matter of fact, the Della Maddalena out struck him only by 40 to 25. And Della Maddalena has 65 striking. I had Rodriguez with 60 striking going into the fight and it was reaffirmed. I don’t see Jackson having anything to offer in this fight. I’m not even 100% sure his striking is a 50. I know Rodriguez’s is a 60. That’s going to be too much for Jackson.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -550