Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 12-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
When Imavov fought Buckley, I thought the story of the fight would be Imavov out classing Buckley on the feet. Using his range, staying on the outside. But instead, Buckley showed up with improved 70 striking and actually landed more strikes. No, the story of the fight was Imavov’s wrestling improving to a 70 because he was able to take Buckley down and control him for long chunks of the fight. Kelvin Gastelum is out and Strickland steps in to take the fight on less than a week’s notice. His last fight with Jared Cannoier went about as I expected it to go. Except I thought Strickland would push the pace more. I thought that was his best chance at winning. Getting Cannonier tired. But Jared’s cardio held up, and he landed with more damage and won a close fight. Strickland’s tools remain intact. And being that he has some of the best cardio in the UFC, he shouldn’t be that compromised taking a fight without a camp. Imavov is similar to Cannonier, but his wrestling is a bit better, a 70. Should be another close fight and again, for Strickland to win, he needs to get Imavov tired. Imavov has never gone 5 rounds before. But I have to give him the edge here, he should have more power, that’s probably going to be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Imavov by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Imavov -135
Dan Ige vs Damon Jackson
- Dan Ige
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pat Sabatini and a 12-3 grappler. Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Not much to take from Jackson’s upset over Sabatini. He blitzed Sabatini, went all in with power. Knocked him down, finished with the ground and pound. Is it possible Jackson is unlocking more power? Maybe. And I guess I was late to the party on Movsar Evloev. He closed as a -425 favorite. I thought it was crazy. But the market was right. Which is no knock on Ige. I’m still confident in his tools. Striking with Evloev was close to equal. Ige lost because Evloev has 75 wrestling. Luckily for Ige, that threat doesn’t exist with Jackson whose grappling is on the same level as Ige. Should be a kick boxing fight. I think Ige is better there.
Chris’ Pick: Ige by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ige -225
Punahele Soriano vs Roman Kopylov
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nick Maximov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula, Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat Jamie Pickett and a 7-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Soriano reaffirmed his 60 striking in his last fight with Lungiambula. Fight went about as I expected. I had both Kopylov and di Chirico’s striking as 60’s going into their fight. Striking was close to equal. So I can say Kopylov still has 60 striking. Easy. The hard part is figuring out where Kopylov’s wrestling is at. The line closed as a pick em. But I had Kopylov as a -150 favorite because I thought di Chirico had 55 wrestling. And di Chirico went for a couple take downs. Didn’t get close. But I didn’t see much from Kopylov in that regard. So it’s possible Kopylov’s wrestling is a 55, but because of how he did against Albert Duraev, I’m pretty sure it’s a 60. Coin flip fight, I have both guys graded identically. But I’m going with Soriano because my eyes think he has more power. Could get to the KO first.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Soriano -125
Ketlen Vieira vs Raquel Pennington
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Miesha Tate, Sijara Eubanks, and Ashley Evans-Smith. Split decision over Holly Holm.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Raquel Pennington
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Macy Chiasson. Beat Aspen Ladd, Pannie Kianzad, Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau. Split decision wins over Irene Aldana and Bethe Correira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I really think Holm beat Vieira. But that doesn’t mean I wasn’t impressed. I wasn’t sure going into that fight how good Vieira’s striking is but I do now. It’s definitely a 70. I know Holm has 75 striking and Holm only out struck Vieira 76 to 49. Holm had better stand up, but it wasn’t a wipeout either. I wonder how the Pennington vs Ladd fight would’ve gone if Ladd had spent more time in the fight wrestling. That’s her strongest tool and her path to victory, but she just let Pennington pick her apart on the feet. I expect Vieira to learn from Ladd’s mistake. If these two stand and trade, it’ll be really even. I do think Vieira spends most of the fight grappling with Pennington, frustrating her, and possibly could get a submission.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Vieira -175
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Beat Nathan Maness, a 12-0-1 grappler, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Guttierez. Beat Trevin Jones, Khalid Taha, and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Barcelos started out slow against Trevin Jones, out landiing him in the 1st round 7 to 4. But then he seemed to regain his confidence in the 2nd round, started doing Barcelos type things. Out struck Barcelos 32 to 7 for the rest of the fight. I will say that for whatever reason, Barcelos is one of the more inconsistent fighters in the UFC. And sadly, with this inconsistency plaguing him, he hasn’t been able to develop or improve anywhere, 8 fights into his UFC career. Who’s a lot more consistent in Umar. Coming off the most impressive win of his career. Almost 11 minutes of top control time in a 15 minute fight. Umar showed off championship level 75 grade wrestling. I see him having no problem doing the same to Barcelos. Might get a little more resistance from Barcelos but the end result should be the same.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nurmagomedov -350
Javid Basharat vs Mateus Mendonca
- Javid Basharat
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler. Submitted an 11-1 grappler. Beat Tony Gravely and Trevin Jones
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Mateus Mendonca
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 wrestler and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 21-5 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Basharat’s last fight with Gravely is a tricky one to evaluate. Because there’s the 1st round. And then there’s the rest of the fight. 1st round went exactly how I thought it’d go. Striking was close to equal. Gravely got a couple take downs and some top control. But apparently Gravely struggled so much to get those take downs, he ran out of gas halfway through the 2nd round. And Basharat took over. Out struck Gravely 55 to 16 in the 2nd and 3rd rounds combined. And Gravely wasn’t able to get anymore take downs. So how much of this had to do with Gravely gassing out and how much does it have to do with Basharat showing up improved. I could be wrong, but I think it’s more of the latter. Basharat was pushing a high pace in the 1st round, seems to have a deep gas tank. I’m going to somewhat reluctantly bump up Basharat’s striking and wrestling to 65’s, but as I said, very possible I’m over rating him. Can’t take too much away from Mendonca’s Contender fight. KO win in 48 seconds. I graded him with 60 tools going in, but could he be even better? He could be. So this is a really unpredictable fight, but I give Basharat a slight edge because I think it’s likely his striking is closer to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Basharat by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Basharat -150
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Claudio Ribeiro
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Joaquin Buckley and Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alessio di Chirico and Niko Price.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Claudio Ribeiro
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
It’s hard to figure out what to make of Ribeiro. I thought his Contender opponent Valenzuela should’ve been a big -300 favorite because I thought he’d be able to get take downs. But we never got there as Ribeiro knocked him out in 25 seconds. So maybe I was too low on Ribeiro. I bumped his tools up a bit, but there’s projection in there. Alhassan actually showed improved cardio in his last fight. Which is incredible considering how much Joaquin Buckley made him wrestle. He really got better there. That said, this fight will be all about testing Ribeiro’s wrestling. Alhassan will wrestle sometimes and that’s an obvious strategy to use here.
Chris’ Pick: Alhassan by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Alhassan -200
Nick Fiore vs Mateusz Rebecki
- Nick Fiore
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Mateusz Rebecki
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 16-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Submitted a 12-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I thought Rebecki was an elite prospect going into the Contender and that’s exactly what he turned out to be. Market had him as only a -240 favorite at close, which was low for me. I thought he should’ve priced at -500. He made it look easy. All it took was a couple take downs. Eventually got a choke with no hooks. Got the tap. Didn’t see much striking in the fight but I’m decently confident it’s a 60 from what I saw of him outside the UFC. There’s not much video of Fiore out there, but I was able to watch his last amateur fight against an opponent who now has a 7-2 pro record, is a striker. Fiore didn’t show much in the stand up, but the grappling was impressive. Fiore had no problem passing the guard and taking his opponent’s back in less than a minute. So my grades have a bit of projection baked in because the fight I watched was over 4 years ago. Fiore is a worthy short notice opponent for Rebecki, but the problem for Fiore is he won’t be able to get the fight on the ground. Rebecki should win here, unless Fiore’s striking is better than I think it is.
Chris’ Pick: Rebecki by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Rebecki -175
Allan Nascimento vs Carlos Hernandez
- Allan Nascimento
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 19-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Tagir Ulanbekov and Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 grappler and a 10-3 grappler. Beat Jake Hadley, a well rounded 16-4 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Hernandez returns off a near 1 year layoff. Two split decision wins in the UFC, but I’m very confident I have him graded correctly. His close win over Altamirano had more to do with Altamirano being better than I thought than Hernandez not being as good. I’m still surprised Hadley closed as a -195 favorite over Nascimento. I disagreed, thought Nascimento shoud’ve been a -250 favorite, but ironically, I thought that because he’d get the better of the striking. Instead, the vast majority of the fight was on the ground. Cardio of both guys held up, but Nascimento got the better of it so I’m elevating his grappling to a 65. And with how high people are on Hadley, especially after Hadley looked dominant against Carlos Candelario, there’s an outside chance Nascimento’s grappling could possibly be a 70. Hernandez is a decent prospect, but this fight should be all Nascimento. I don’t really see a path to victory for Hernandez.
Chris’ Pick: Nascimento by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nascimento -450
Dan Argueta vs Nick Aguirre
- Dan Argueta
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over a 14-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Nick Aguirre
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Despite the loss, I was really impressed with Argueta in his UFC debut against Damon Jackson. Short notice. Fought up a weight class. Mainly lost because of Jackson’s size. It was too much and Jackson got over 10 minutes of control time. But the striking, it was close to equal. Not much recent video of short notice opponent Aguirre. And to make things murkier, 6 of his 7 wins are over very soft competition. His best win was submitting a 7-4 striker. I think grading him with 55 tools is the best educated guess with where he’s at. But even if his grappling is a 60, it won’t be enough to take Argueta down. The only danger in picking Argueta is that Aguirre might have more power, but the odds of him stepping in with 65 striking is very, very low. Plus, he’s taking the fight on less than a week’s notice. 6 of Aguirre’s 7 wins have been finishes in the 1st round. I expect him to blitz Argueta, go all in on the 1st round. I think Argueta survives and takes over in the 2nd round.
Chris’ Pick: Argueta by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Argueta -250
Charles Johnson vs Jimmy Flick
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jimmy Flick
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-2 fighter and a 12-5 grappler. Lost to a 4-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden, a 6-0 grappler, a 10-1 grappler and a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
If you look at the end result of Flick’s last fight, a 1st round submission win over legit UFC fighter Cody Durden, you’d think Flick dominated the fight. But the opposite happened. Durden was dominating. Out struck Flick 17 to 6. Got a couple take downs. But Flick is dangerous on the ground, caught Durden in a triangle, and it was over just like that. I’ve watched Zhumagulov a lot. I know he has 60 striking and 65 wrestling. And Johnson proved that his tools were on par. Fight was very close to equal with Zhumagulov having a slight edge in the striking, but not enough for me to downgrade Johnson’s striking from a 60. And I’m bumping Johnson’s wrestling up to a 65 as he was able to stuff 3 of Zhumagulov’s 4 take down attempts. The game plan for Johnson isn’t rocket science. Striking with Flick. He should have the wrestling to keep away from Flick’s grappling. And then piece Flick up on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Johnson -350