Jones vs Gane, Shevchenko vs Grasso, Rakhmonov vs Neal Fight Picks - UFC 285 - March 4, 2023 - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane

Jon Jones
Age: 35
UFC Record: 20-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Gustafsson. Submitted Lyoto Machida and Rampage Jackson. Beat Dominick Reyes, Anthony Smith, Daniel Cormier, and Glover Teixeira. Split decision over Thiago Santos.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: plus (70)

Ciryl Gane
Age: 32
UFC Record: 8-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser.
Striking: plus plus (80)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: near plus (65)
Grappling: above average (60)

Tai Tuivasa has legit 70 grade striking. So Tuivasa is a top striker, really good striking. And yet, Gane out struck him 108 to 26. That’s as top of the scale 80 grade as it gets. And the biggest thing that makes Gane so effective is how hard he is to hit. His foot work, movement, how quick he is. But Gane’s wrestling wasn’t tested in the Tuivasa fight so we don’t know if he’s gotten better there yet. But even based on how Gane’s fight with Francis Ngannou played out, I could still see an argument for Gane’s wrestling being a 70. There’s a bunch of reasons that makes grading Jones difficult. First of all, Jones hasn’t fought in over 3 years. Second, his last fight was against Reyes, who hasn’t looked the same since he lost to Jones. So it’s hard to say if Reyes has regressed or if this how good he’s always been and Jones regressed a bit too. It seems like it’s possible Jones had regressed after his razor close win over Santos. And to make things even harder, Jones is now moving up in weight. But it’s not like he’s moving up 10 lbs. He’s moving up to heavyweight. The hardest weight class to move up in. All that said, the market had Jones graded with 75 striking and 75 grappling going into the Reyes fight. And it’s typically been a good rule of thumb to scale back a fighter’s grades a tick when moving up in weight. It’s worked well, despite a few exceptions. But I think grading Jones with 70 striking and 70 grappling is the most plausible way to judge his skills, with all the doubts of regression. For him to be gone so long and come back improved or at least where he was when he left, it just doesn’t happen that often. I really think Gane is the right side here. Way, way less miles on his body. And I think he’s going to land a lot more than Jones. And maybe Jones gets a couple of take downs, but he’s naturally not a heavyweight. He’s not the size of Ngannou. I see Gane keeping the fight on the feet long enough to win on points.

Chris’ Pick: Gane by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Gane -175

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso

Valentina Shevchenko
Age: 34
UFC Record: 9-0 at 125 lbs. 12-2 overall.
Key Wins: Knocked out Lauren Murphy, Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia. Split decision over Taila Santos.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: plus (70)

Alexa Grasso
Age: 29
UFC Record: 4-0 at 125 lbs. 7-3 overall.
Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Wood. Beat Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber, Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

I thought Araujo should’ve been a -225 favorite over Grasso. Instead it was Grasso as the 2 to 1 favorite. Probably because the market thought the wrestling would be equal and that Grasso would out strike her. I thought Araujo would be able to win with take downs. I’m confident Araujo’s wrestling is a 75 with the way she dominated 65 grappler Andrea Lee on the ground. I think Grasso’s wrestling got better. She was able to stuff 8 out of 10 take down attempts. It’s enough for me to say that Grasso’s wrestling is likely a 75. But her striking remains a 70 as strikes landed were close to equal. I thought that Shevchenko had 75 wrestling after she was able to take Andrade down and dominate on the ground. But Santos through a wrench into that by taking Shevchenko down and out wrestling her. Now, I think it’s possible Santos might have top of the scale 80 grade wrestling, but for now, I’ve downgraded Shevchenko’s grappling to a 70. As for Shevchenko’s striking, it was reaffirmed as a 70. Really interesting fight. Lot of possibilities. It’s possible Shevchenko could be regressing. It’s possible Grasso works in the same game plan Santos had, taking the champ down. It’s likely the striking numbers will be close, but Shevchenko should have more power. Ultimately, I give Shevchenko a slight edge to win the fight, but it’s very close to a flip of the coin.

Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Shevchenko -135

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Geoff Neal

Shavkat Rakhmonov
Age: 28
Pro Record: 16-0
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, a 4-1 grappler, a 6-1-2 wrestler, a well rounded 28-6 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Submitted Neil Magny, Michel Prazares, Alex Oliveira, Jun Yong Park, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Grappling: plus (70)

Geoff Neal
Age: 32
UFC Record: 8-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Vicente Luque, Mike Perry, and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Neal was really close to letting the biggest performance of his career slip away. He had Luque hurt in the 1st round and really emptied the gas tank to get the finish. Failed to get it. He slowed down noticably in the 2nd round, let Luque back in the fight. It seemed like Neal might have gassed himself out. But he bounced back in the 3rd. Striking was close to equal. And Luque’s chin took all the damage it was able to take. Striking was close to equal up until the KO. I’m still not completely sure what to think of Rakhmonov’s last two fights. He didn’t really strike with Magny. I have Harris with 65 striking and the strikes were close to equal up until Rakhmonov knocked him out. So I’m pretty confident Shavkat’s striking is a 65. And I also think Harris’ wrestling is a 60. Rakhmonov got the better of it but Harris was able to get back up. So I thought Rakhmonov’s wrestling was a 65. But then he takes on Magny, who says he wasn’t at his best for that fight. I normally have Magny’s wrestling as a 65. Maybe it was a 60 that night. Which would explain Rakhmonov being able to take him down and control him the whole fight. So the most plausible thing that probably happened is Rakhmonov improving his wrestling to a 70. Really good fight here. Could be striker vs grappler. Rakhmonov is getting a lot of hype, will probably be the favorite. But I’m going to play contrarian here and say that even though I think Rakhmonov gets some take downs, he’s never fought someone with 70 grade striking like Neal and I think Neal will catch Shavkat.

Chris’ Pick: Neal by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Neal -125

Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner

Mateusz Gamrot
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Jalin Turner
Age: 27
UFC Record: 7-1 at 155 lbs. 7-2 overall.
Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Brad Riddell and Uros Medic.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Gamrot was a 2 to 1 favorite going into the Dariush fight, but lost because he couldn’t take Dariush down in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. And Dariush out struck him 52 to 29. But Gamrot didn’t lose because he was over rated. I believe Dariush showed up improved with new 75 striking. Despite Dariush’s age, he’s been elevating his skills to another level. I’m comfortable leaving Gamrot’s grades the same based on what he did in his fight with Tsarukyan. So obviously, this is a big change for Turner, who was originally supposed to take on Dan Hooker. Now he gets Gamrot in a completely different style match up. And I just don’t see a path for Turner to win. Gamrot’s wrestling and cardio will be too much.

Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.

What I think the odds should be: Gamrot -600

Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett

Bo Nickal
Age: 26
Pro Record: 3-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 4-0 striker.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: plus (70)
Grappling: above average (60)

Jamie Pickett
Age: 34
UFC Record: 3-6
Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker. Beat Joseph Holmes and Laureano Staropoli.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I’ll admit, we haven’t seen much from Nickal’s striking. But the little we have seen, he hasn’t needed too many strikes to knock his opponent out. He doesn’t seem to be a one dimensional wrestler at all, which is surprising with how few pro fights he has. It’s possible his skills could be further along than where I have him graded. We’ve seen Pickett in 9 UFC fights. His tools have plateaued. He hasn’t gotten better. And even if he does show up improved, he’s nowhere close to the level that Nickal is at.

Chris’ Pick: Nickal by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Nickal -1000

Cody Garbrandt vs Trevin Jones

Cody Garbrandt
Age: 31
UFC Record: 7-4 at 135 lbs. 7-5 overall.
Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Dominick Cruz.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Trevin Jones
Age: 32
Pro Record: 13-9
UFC Record: 1-3
Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-3 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out Mario Bautista, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 9-5 wrestler.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

The question I’m asking myself is whether Garbrandt’s striking has regressed to a 65 or not. I’ve recently realized Rob Font has 75 striking. And he out struck Garbrandt by more than a 2 to 1 clip. But then Garbrandt comes back and takes on Kai Kara France. And France out landed Garbrandt. Showed better striking. But at some point, Kara France improved his striking to a 75. He had it in the Brandon Moreno and Askar Askarov fights. But did Kara France have 75 striking in the Garbrandt fight? It’s possible. Garbrandt might have showed up with his striking back to a 70, but for now, the tool is a 65 for me. The 1st round of Jones vs Raoni Barcelos was close, up until when Barcelos got Jones on the ground and was able to control for a bit. The 2nd and 3rd rounds of the fight, Jones seemed to be worried about the take downs and Barcelos out struck him 32 to 7. Garbrandt would be smart to execute a similar game plan. He showed in the Font fight he might not have the wrestling cardio to wrestle all fight, but mixing in one or two take downs would be good to have Jones lower his hands. This is a very winnable fight for Garbrandt, especially with Jones taking the fight on a few weeks notice.

Chris’ Pick: Garbrandt by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Garbrandt -400

Derek Brunson vs Dricus du Plessis

Derek Brunson
Age: 38
UFC Record: 14-6
Key Wins: Submitted Darren Till. Knocked out Edmen Shahbazyan and Uriah Hall. Beat Kevin Holland, Ian Heinisch, and Elias Theodorou.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Dricus du Plessis
Age: 28
Pro Record: 18-2
UFC Record: 4-0
Key Wins: Submitted Darren Till, a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Trevin Giles, Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter. Beat Brad Tavares.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: plus (70)

On the one hand, I feel a little cheated from the Brunson vs Cannonier fight. Cannonier won mostly because Brunson ran out of gas halfway through the fight and Cannonier was able to capitalize. He got tired from all the wrestling and resistance he got from Cannonier. But at the same time, what was Brunson’s pathway to winning? Mixing in take downs, getting Cannonier tired, grinding him out. So that was the right game plan. Just a bad matchup from Brunson. But I didn’t see anything that would make me change how I grade his skills. Now, someone might look at du Plessis vs Till and think oh, Till has regressed. Till is towards the end of his career. That’s not what happened. Till is still a quality fighter who showed up with the same tools that he’s known for. What happened is du Plessis got even better. Showed 70 wrestling. And the striking between him and Till was close to equal. Brunson is coming off a knockout loss. He’s talked publicly about being close to retirement. The trajectory of both guys’ careers are going in opposite directions.

Chris’ Pick: du Plessis by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: du Plessis -300

Viviane Araujo vs Amanda Ribas

Viviane Araujo
Age: 36
UFC Record: 5-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Andrea Lee, Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa ,and Alexis Davis.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Grappling: plus (70)

Amanda Ribas
Age: 29
UFC Record: 5-2
Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana. Split decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian.
Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Virna Jandiroba, Randa Markos, and MacKenzie Dern.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: plus (70)
Grappling: plus (70)

Despite the split decision loss, Ribas had a good showing against top contender Chookagian. Striking was close to equal and Ribas even got a couple take downs as well. It’s even possible her grappling has elevated to a 75. Araujo losing to Alexa Grasso had more to do with Grasso improving her wrestling, than Araujo not being as good as I thought. I’m very confident Lee has 65 grappling. Araujo out classed Lee on the ground. So even though it might appear as if I’m grading Araujo’s wrestling too high, I still think a 75 is the right grade. And you might say that Ribas is 7 years younger, more likely to show up improved. But from where their skills are at now, the only edge I see in the fight is Araujo being able to get some take downs to edge out a win.

Chris’ Pick: Araujo by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Araujo -135

Julian Marquez vs Marc Andre Barriault

Julian Marquez
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-2
Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
Key Wins: Submitted Sam Alvey, Darren Stewart, and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: above average (60)

Marc-Andre Barriault
Age: 32
UFC Record: 3-5
Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
Key Wins: Knocked out Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Jordan Wright. Beat Dalcha Lungiambula.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)

The final striking numbers between Marquez and Rodrigues don’t look close, with Rodrigues out landing him 33 to 13. But that’s because Rodrigues had Marquez hurt and was piling up the strikes before getting the KO. Before Marquez was hurt, the striking was a little closer. Enough for me to keep Marquez’s striking as a 60. I wasn’t too surprised that Anthony Hernandez was able to take Barriault down, even repeatedly. What I was really surprised about though was how Hernandez was able to out cardio him. Crazy, considering one of Barriault’s best known attributes is his cardio. Barriault running out of gas and getting submitted I think had more to do with Hernandez being better than I thought vs Barriault not being as good. Really close fight here, I have both guys graded almost identically. But I do think Barriault has better cardio than Marquez and should use that to edge out a win.

Chris’ Pick: Barriault by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Barriault -125

Ian Machado Garry vs Kenan Song

Ian Machado Garry
Age: 25
Pro Record: 10-0
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Kenan Song
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-2
Key Losses: Lost to Alex Morono.
Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Kenan is tricky to grade because he’s only been in the octagon for 2 minutes in the last 3 years. That 2 minutes was him getting knocked out by Max Griffin. But leading up to the KO, the striking was close to equal. I have Griffin at 65 striking now, but I think back when they fought 2 years ago, Griffin had 60 striking at the time. But I’m not confident in saying that because we just haven’t seen much of Kenan. But the chances of him having 65 striking to match Garry is slim.

Chris’ Pick: Garry by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Garry -350

Mana Martinez vs Cameron Saaiman

Mana Martinez
Age: 26
Pro Record: 10-3
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler and a 3-0 wrestler. Split decision wins over Brandon Davis and Guido Cannetti.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Cameron Saaiman
Age: 22
Pro Record: 7-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and well rounded 5-1 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

The market had Martinez as a -150 favorite going into the Davis fight. Probably because they thought the striking would be close to equal, but Martinez would have more power. And that’s exactly how the fight played out. Normally most fighters take the path of least resistance in a fight, but Saaiman appeared to make things harder on himself than he needed to. He took on grappler Steven Koslow and instead of using his wrestling to stuff take downs, he instead decided to grapple the whole time, giving Koslow his best chance at winning. I thought Saaiman had a huge advantage on the feet, especially having more power, and didn’t unleash it until the end of the fight, picked up the TKO. So not sure about the game plan, but I was impressed with Saaiman’s cardio. He grappled almost the whole fight and still had gas left in the tank at the end. And I think that gas tank gives him an advantage to beat Martinez here.

Chris’ Pick: Saaiman by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Saaiman -250

Tabatha Ricci vs Jessica Penne

Tabatha Ricci
Age: 27
Pro Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Beat Polyana Viana and a 12-4 striker.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Jessica Penne
Age: 39
UFC Record: 3-4
Key Losses: Lost to Danielle Taylor.
Key Wins: Submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decisions over Lupita Godinez and Randa Markos
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Grappling: above average (60)

I had confidence in Penne’s grappling being a 65 as her grappling with rising contender Godinez was close to equal. But I think she started to take a step back in her last fight with Emily Ducote. Yes, I think Ducote is really good. But Penne went 0 for 8 in take down attempts. Does Ducote have 65 wrestling? Maybe. But Ducote also out landed Penne by a 2 to 1 clip on the feet. Does Ducote have 70 striking? I doubt it. Most likely, at 39 years of age, Penne looks to be regressing. Ricci showed great cardio and durability in her win over Viana. I thought the fight would be closer, but Ricci had the cardio to take Viana down over and over again whenever she’d get back up. Shots landed with 55 striker Viana were close to equal. Should be a really close stand up fight. I like Ricci because she’s 12 years younger and I see her pushing the pace, tiring Penne out.

Chris’ Pick: Ricci by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ricci -125

Farid Basharat vs Da’Mon Blackshear

Farid Basharat
Age: 25
Pro Record: 9-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: near plus (65)
Grappling: above average (60)

Da’Mon Blackshear
Age: 28
Pro Record: 12-4-1
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
Key Wins: Submitted Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Look, I wasn’t the only one who thought Basharat’s fight against Allan Begosso would be close. The line closed as a near pick em. And wow, Basharat was really, really impressive. Way better than everybody thought. When he took Begosso down, Begosso wasn’t able to get back up. And Basharat out struck him 52 to 12. In my opinion, Blackshear is similar to Begosso, except Blackshear is missing Begosso’s power. Basharat should cruise here and win any way he wants.

Chris’ Pick: Basharat by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Basharat -600

Loik Radzhabov vs Esteban Ribovics

Loik Radzhabov
Age: 32
Pro Record: 16-4
Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Esteban Ribovics
Age: 26
Pro Record: 11-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Part of me thinks I I’d under rating Radzhabov’s skills, but the reality is that he’s lost 3 of his last 6 fights. And one of his last fights against a well rounded 14-3 fighter in the PFL, Radzhabov went in as the favorite and lost. Not because his opponent showed up improved, but because Radzhabov wasn’t as good as the market thought. Ribovics should win here, better striking. And Radzhabov is fighting on a week’s notice.

Chris’ Pick: Ribovics by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ribovics -175

Jones vs Gane, Shevchenko vs Grasso, Rakhmonov vs Neal Fight Picks – UFC 285 – March 4, 2023