Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan
- Beneil Dariush
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 16-5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Joaquim Silva, Joel Alvarez, Christos Giagos, and a 15-5 striker. Beat Damir Ismagulov, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Despite Dariush being knocked out by Charles Oliveira in his last fight, I can’t ignore his fight before that, against Gamrot. I know Gamrot has 70 striking. And Dariush out struck him 52 to 29. As much as my knee jerk reaction to picking this fight is to pick the younger guy in Tsarukyan, I can’t ignore that currently, as of now, Dariush has the better striking and a lot more power. I also can’t ignore the fact that Joaquin Silva rocked Tsarukyan and had him in danger.
Chris’ Pick: Dariush by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Dariush -225
Jalin Turner vs Bobby Green
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 155 lbs. 7-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Brad Riddell and Uros Medic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Bobby Green
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-9-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Grant Dawson and Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Even though Green has improved, he can be knocked out. I watched him against Drew Dober. Same problem here with Turner, short notice or not.
Chris’ Pick: Turner by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Turner -175
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Rob Font
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Alex Perez and Tim Elliott. Beat Moreno and Alex Pantoja.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Rob Font
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I expect Figueiredo to look really good at 135 lbs. Font won’t be able to handle the power.
Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Figueiredo -200
Sean Brady vs Kelvin Gastelum
- Sean Brady
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jake Matthews and Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Court McGee and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kelvin Gastelum
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2 at 170 lbs. 12-8 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Chris Curtis and Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m not going to believe that Gastelum can make 170 lbs until I see it. He’s failed to make that weight so many times. If he makes the weight, he’ll have a chance. But then the other question becomes, how smooth was the cut? How much did he deplete himself? Is it possible his skills translate better at welterweight? Of course. But it’s very far from a sure thing. Striking between Brady and Belal Muhammad was close until it wasn’t. 1st round was close. And in the 2nd round, either Brady gassed out, or was just hurt from Muhmmad’s power. Either way, Brady slowed down and melted. It’s possible Brady’s striking is a 70, but I think it’s closer to a 65 for now. Brady is more likely to win with take downs but Gastelum’s weight is a wild card and he could show up improved.
Chris’ Pick: Brady by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Brady -200
Clay Guida vs Joaquim Silva
- Clay Guida
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 18-16
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson. Split decision wins over Scott Holtzman and Mark O. Madsen.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Joaquim SIlva
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Gordon.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Rafa Garcia closed as a -275 favorite over Guida. Market and myself thought he’d win with the better striking. Garcia outperformed. Out struck Guida 138 to 63. It’s possible Garcia’s striking might have improved to a 65 but also possible Guida, at 41 years of age and 34 UFC fights in his career, is starting to regress more. Silva lost to Arman Tsarukyan but showed more resistance than I thought he would. Enough for me to upgrade his wrestling to a 60. On paper, Silva should win, but my concern is that Guida is near impossible to knock out. Silva might get too aggressive trying to get the finish. Silva’s cardio isn’t the best. So Silva has to be disciplined.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -250
Punahele Soriano vs Dustin Stoltzfus
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nick Maximov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula, Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat Jamie Pickett and a 7-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Dustin Stoltzfus
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Dwight Grant and a 10-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Roman Kopylov knocking Soriano out had more to do with Kopylov leveling up. Both the market and myself had Soriano as a slight -125 favorite. So I’d say his skills remain intact. Stoltzfus definitely has a path to winning by grinding Soriano out with take downs, but this is Stoltzfus’ first fight back after getting knocked out in 19 seconds. I question Stoltzfus’ durability and think Soriano will catch him.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Soriano -125
Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila
- Miesha Tate
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Holly Holm. Knocked out Marion Reneau. Majority decision over Sara McMann.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Julia Avila
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Julija Stoliarenko. Beat Pannie Kianzad, Nicco Montano, and Marion Reneau.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This is Avila’s first fight in two and a half years. I’m using a bit of projection to grade her striking a 70. It could be a 65. Tate is going to need to wrestle for 15 minutes to beat Avila and I just don’t think she has the cardio to do that anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Avila by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Avila -175
Cody Brundage vs Zachary Reese
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Reese has a wild resume. He’s finished 5 of his 6 pro fights in less than 2 minutes. And 3 of those 5 finishes happened in less than a minute. It’s hard to truly say how good he is because his fights just don’t last long enough, but it’s hard to do what he’s done even going against really poor competition.
Chris’ Pick: Reese by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Reese -350
Joe Solecki vs Drakkar Klose
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jared Gordon.
- Key Wins: Submitted Carl Deaton, Austin Hubbard, and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Jim Miller. Majority decision over Alex da Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Drakkar Klose
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Beat Rafa Garcia and Bobby Green. Split decision over Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Market closed with Klose as a -170 favorite against Rafa Garcia and I disagreed. I thought it was close to a pick em fight and I turned out to be right. Klose squeaked out a close win. I had both guys graded the same and I still have both graded the same.
Chris’ Pick: Solecki by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Solecki -250
Rodolfo Bellato vs Ihor Potieria
- Rodolfo Bellato
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 4-1 striker. Submitted a 5-1 striker and an 11-4 striker. Beat a 15-5 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 20-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua and an 8-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Potieira got knocked out by Carlos Ulberg in his last fight, but before the KO, striking was equal, 5 strikes to 5 strikes. Super small sample, but it’s possible Potieria showed up with improved 65 striking. Talha closed as a -250 favorite going into the Bellato fight. Maybe the market thought his striking was a 70. Bellato then out strikes Talha 35 to 25. Possible Bellato could have 70 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Bellato by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Bellato -225
Wellington Turman vs Jared Gooden
- Wellington Turman
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Misha Cirkunov, a 13-3 striker, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jared Gooden
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niklas Stolze. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Yes, Gooden lost his last fight, has a 1-4 UFC record, but he did show up improved in the Carlston Harris fight. Striking was close to equal, but he lost because Harris was able to take him down and Gooden gassed out after the first 2 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Gooden by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Gooden -250
Veronica Hardy vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Veronica Hardy
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat Juliana Miller.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 grappker. Knocked out a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Beat Hailey Cowan.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Horth came into the Cowan fight as a -165 favorite. Market and I expected Horth to have better skills. But Cowan showed up improved, probably won the fight, despite what the judges said. Striking close to equal. But Cowan did get the better of the wrestling and clinch work. Really close fight, Hardy might have a slight edge in the wrestling, but I think Horth is more likely to win having more power and doing more damage.
Chris’ Pick: Horth by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Horth -135