Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 12-2
- Key Wins: Beat Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Colby Covington
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tyron Woodley. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Robbie Lawler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
The difference between the second Edwards vs Usman fight vs the third one is fascinating. You can obviously see in the third fight, Usman isn’t the same guy. Lacked confidence. Wasn’t able to bully Edwards. Most tangibly speaking, Usman didn’t seem to have the same cardio to take Edwards down repeatedly. But check this out. The second fight, Usman out strikes Edwards 46 to 42. In the third fight, Edwards blows him out of the water, 111 to 65. Clearly Usman was gun shy in the stand up. I think it’s highly unlikely Edwards improves his striking to a top of the scale 80 and yet his wrestling is only a 70. Usman just wasn’t the same guy in their third fight. Now, with Covington, it’s very obvious he wants to recreate Edwards vs Usman 2, minus the head kick KO. And his cardio is better than Usman’s. Covington will have the gas tank to go for take down after take down. I’m decently confident Edwards will have no answer for the relentless wrestling.
Chris’ Pick: Covington by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Covington -200
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval 2
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Alex Perez, Brandon Royval, and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Matheus Nicolau a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Rogerio Bontorin.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Pantoja leveled up in the Moreno fight. Grappling is at least a 75. I have his striking as a 70 for now, but it’s mighty close to a 75 grade. It’s possible Royval shows up with improved wrestling, but thus far, his grappling isn’t better than a 65 and I don’t see how he’s able to stop Pantoja’s grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Pantoja by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Pantoja -300
Stephen Thompson vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Stephen Thompson
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 13-6-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
- Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Holland. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, a 4-1 grappler, a 6-1-2 wrestler, a well rounded 28-6 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Submitted Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, Michel Prazares, Alex Oliveira, Jun Yong Park, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Thompson does still have 75 striking. He out landed Holland 150 to 97, although the number is a bit inflated by Holland getting injured towards the end of the fight. I know the narrative with Rakhmonov. Future champion. But the hype doesn’t line up with reality yet. The commentators made it seem as if Rakhmonov blew Neal out of the water. He didn’t. The 2nd and 3rd rounds were close. Striking was close to equal. And Rakhmonov didn’t get a single take down. Rahmonov definitely has great cardio and is durable. But Thompson has been in so many 5 round fights. He won’t gas out in 3 rounds. I see him landing more shots to pull the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Thompson by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Thompson -135
Paddy Pimblett vs Tony Ferguson
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 20-3
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Luigi Vendramini and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Julian Erosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Tony Ferguson
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 18-7
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Ferguson didn’t do that bad in the Michael Chandler fight. Striking was close to equal, up until the KO. But then he took on Bobby Green and there’s a big drop off in skills for Ferguson there. Green out struck him 115 to 50. Not close at all.
Chris’ Pick: Pimblett by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Pimblett -250
Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell
- Josh Emmett
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Beat Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. Split decision over Calvin Kattar.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bryce Mitchell
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles. Beat Dan Ige, Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Bobby Moffett.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Mitchell might be taking this fight on short notice, but I don’t think it’ll matter. His Ige fight really solidified his tools being where I’ve graded them. We might see further regression from Emmett with his age and all the damage he took from Ilia Topuria.
Chris’ Pick: Mitchell by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Mitchell -250
Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute. Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-2-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khalil Rountree.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu, Da Un Jung, Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Menifield came close to knocking out Crute in their first fight. And it was easy to say, well, Menifield has all this power. Doesn’t change the fact that Crute can get take downs. Menifield’s wrestling still hadn’t improved. But then in the second Crute fight, he takes a massive step forward. Not only does he stuff all but one take down attempt, he was also nowhere close to gassing out. His cardio looked great. And he out struck Crute 17 to 6. Small sample size on the striking, but I think it’s safe to say when you pair it with the improvement of the wresting, the striking is probably a 70 tool now.
Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Menifield -225
Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa
- Irene Aldana
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Macy Chiasson, Yana Kunitskaya, and Ketlen Vieira. Submitted Bethe Correira. Split decision over Lucie Pudilova.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio. Majority decision over Lina Lansberg. Split decision over Yana Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Rosa took a bit of a step back in my opinion against Santos, definitely showing her striking is a 65. Aldana I think is much better than how she looked in the Nunes title fight. Think the moment was too much for her. She should bounce back against Rosa.
Chris’ Pick: Aldana by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aldana -275
Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher
- Cody Garbrandt
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-4 at 135 lbs. 8-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Trevin Jones and Dominick Cruz.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Brian Kelleher
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Kevin Croom, Domingo Pilarte and Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Garbrandt is coming off a win, but it’s not the kind that inspires confidence. The one round Garbrandt and Jones traded strikes, Garbrandt did out land 17 to 7. And he got the better of the wrestling, but Jones was able to get back up and wasn’t controlled for long. No way Jones’ wrestling is better than a 60, so I have no choice but to downgrade Garbrandt’s wrestling to a 65. I thought Kelleher’s wrestling was a 65 going into the Mario Bautista fight, but Bautista was able to take him down and get a choke within a few minutes. Maybe the fight would’ve gotten better for Kelleher as time went on, but then again, he’s 36 years old with 15 UFC fights. Regression is a more likely possibility.
Chris’ Pick: Garbrandt by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Garbrandt: -200
Casey O’Neill vs Ariane Lipski
- Casey O’Neill
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonina Shevchenko and Shana Dobson. Beat a 4-1 striker. Split decision over Roxanne Modafferi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ariane Lipski
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat JJ Aldrich and Mandy Bohm. Split decision over Melissa Gatto.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
The market priced Gatto as a -275 favorite over Lipski. Which was bonkers to me, although, I’ll admit I was under rating Gatto myself. To the surprise of everyone, it turned out to be a close fight that Lipski edged out. Most plausible way to explain what happened is that Gatto was better than I thought and not Lipski worse than I thought. Speaking of worse than we thought, that was O’Neill in her last fight with Jennifer Maia. Look, she’ll definitely improve her tools to 70’s and beyond later in her career, but as of now, they’re 65’s.
Chris’ Pick: Lipski by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lipski -250
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Nathan Maness, a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Allan Nascimento.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Cody Durden
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
The market had Jake Hadley as a -220 favorite over Durden. Thought Hadley would be able to stuff take downs and would land more strikes. Instead, Durden did get take downs and amazingly got the better of Hadley on the feet. Took a huge step forward in his striking.
Chris’ Pick: Durden by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Durden -200
Lucas Almeida vs Andre Fili
- Lucas Almeida
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out Michael Trizano, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Andre Fili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision wins over Bill Algeo and Charles Jourdain.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Fili has had 19 UFC fights in his career. Saw last year that he can be knocked out. I think Almeida blitzes him like Joanderson Brito did.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -175
Shamil Gaziev vs Martin Buday
- Shamil Gaziev
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darko Stosic and a 4-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 13-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Martin Buday
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Josh Parisian. Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jake Collier and Chris Barnett. Split decision over Lukas Brzeski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Buday has proven to be durable with great cardio. Gaziev has a history of gassing out if he doesn’t get the quick finish.
Chris’ Pick: Buday by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Buday -175