Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 205 lbs. 6-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva. Split decision over Jan Blachowicz.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute, and Ovince St Preux. Beat Glover Teixeira, Thiago Santos, and Darko Stosic.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus plus (80)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
After watching Pereira vs Prochazka, it’s apparent that Pereira has 65 wrestling and Prochazka’s wrestling is a 70. Which begs a question. Did Prochazka’s wrestling improve? Or did he already have 70 wrestling in the Teixeira fight? Is it possible Teixeira’s grappling is a 75? It sure looked like it when he submitted Jan Blachowicz. These are important questions because Hill stuffed 15 of Teixeira’s 17 take downs attempts. Which means Hill might have 75 wrestling. Which would further boost the possibility his striking is a top of the scale 80. Look at the numbers. Hill out struck Teixeira 188 to 65. At worst, I know 100% for sure that Hill’s wrestling is at least a 70. Meaning if Prochazka could get take downs on Pereira, I’m sure Hill will too.
Chris’ Pick: Hill by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hill -250
Weili Zhang vs Xiaonan Yan
- Weili Zhang
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rose Namajunas.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Submitted Carla Esparza. Beat Amanda Lemos, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Xiaonan Yan
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marina Rodriguez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Beat Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill. Majority decision over MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Really small sample size, but Yan out struck Andrade 23 to 12. Enough for me to elevate her striking to a 75. Once and for all, Zhang’s fight with Lemos proved she has well rounded 75 tools.
Chris’ Pick: Zhang by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zhang -175
Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
- Justin Gaethje
- Age: 35
- UFC record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone. Beat Michael Chandler. Majority decision over Rafael Fiziev.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Max Holloway
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 21-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Arnold Allen, Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: neat plus plus (75)
This fight is going to come down to how well Holloway’s skills translate to 155 lbs. The last time he made this move, he was 27 years old and in his prime at 145 lbs, he took on Poirer and Poirier was noticeably the bigger guy. Gaethje will have more power, but Holloway is one of the most durable guys in the UFC, should be more durable at 155 lbs and it’s a 3 round fight.
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Holloway -175
Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 22-9
- Key Wins: Submitted Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Beneil Dariush, Joaquim Silva, Joel Alvarez, Christos Giagos, and a 15-5 striker. Beat Damir Ismagulov, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
If you look at Oliveira finish guys in the 1st round, you’d think his striking is for sure a 75. And at times, I’ve bought into that. He’s coming off a 1st round knockout over Dariush. But the numbers don’t lie and Islam Makhachev out struck Oliveira 21 to 10. Fight lasted less than 2 rounds, small sample, but I’m 100% sure Makhachev doesn’t have top of the scale 80 striking. Maybe it’s a 75 grade. Which means the most plausible grade for Oliveira’s striking is still a 70, despite his elite power. Tsarukyan fought Dariush right after Oliveira. And Tsarukyan closed as a -300 favorite, so the market probably thought Tsarukyan’s striking is a 75. And the fight only lasted a minute with Tsarukyan landing 4 vs 2. I’m going to project Tsarukyan’s striking to a 75, but I could be wrong, could be a 70 still.
Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tsarukyan -200
Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage
- Bo Nickal
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Pickett, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out Valentine Woodburn.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zachary Reese and Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Brundage had that no contest with Jakob Malkoun and even though Brundage was losing the fight, he did show improvement in his wrestling. Remember, Malkoun closed as a -550 favorite. But Brundage kept showing the ability to stay off his back, getting back up. He slammed Reese and got him out quick, so we haven’t really seen any of Brundage’s striking lately, but I’m projecting it as a 60 tool now. Nickal should win here, but I think Brundage is a legit live underdog as we’ve never seen Nickal fight more than a few minutes. Very possible Brundage could weather the 1st round storm and that Nickal could gas out trying to get the early finish.
Chris’ Pick: Nickal by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Nickal -250
Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar Rakic
- Jiri Prochazka
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 29-4-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Volkan Oezdemir, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Submitted Glover Teixeira. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Aleksandar Rakic
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Prochazka by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Prochazka -200
Aljamain Sterling vs Calvin Kattar
- Aljamain Sterling
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 15-4
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. Split decision wins over Henry Cejudo and Petr Yan.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Calvin Kattar
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Emmett.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Giga Chikadze and Dan Ige.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
After watching Sterling vs O’Malley, I saw that the striking was close to equal and came away thinking O’Malley’s striking was just a 70. But then O’Malley completely out classes Chito Vera. Proves his striking is at least a 75. And looking back at Sterling’s fight with Cejudo, Sterling did out strike him 103 to 82. So I have to give Sterling his due that his striking has leveled up to a 75. It’s Sterling’s first fight at 145 lbs. I think his tools will translate at featherweight with how hard it was for him to make 135 lbs. He should also be more durable at 145 lbs. Kattar returns from knee injury for his first fight in almost 2 years. He does have 70 power, but it plays more in the 2nd half of fights as he uses cardio and pressure. I don’t see him being able to use it here with someone who usually fights 5 rounds in Sterling.
Chris’ Pick: Sterling by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sterling -250
Holly Holm vs Kayla Harrison
- Holly Holm
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ketlen Vieira.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correira. Beat Raquel Pennington twice. Beat Yano Santos, Irene Aldana and Megan Anderson at 145 lbs.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Kayla Harrison
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Aspen Ladd, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Harrison’s striking could be a 60. But she did seem to out strike Ladd in her last fight. Highly doubt Harrison’s wrestling is better than a 70. Especially after seeing Mayra Bueno Silva take on Raquel Pennington, I’m very convinced Bueno Silva’s win over Holm was a fluke. Holm got surprised and caught in a choke. It happens, like a KO. Holm still has 75 striking. And I’m very confident her wrestling is at least a 70. And on top of all this, no one has seen Harrison at 135 lbs. We all know the weight cut will be hard. And I question how durable her chin will be.
Chris’ Pick: Holm by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Holm -300
Sodiq Yusuff vs Diego Lopes
- Sodiq Yusuff
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez. Submitted Don Shainis. Beat Alex Caceres, Andre Fili, and Mike Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Diego Lopes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 22-6
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pat Sabatini. Submitted Gavin Tucker, Marcos Beltran, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I’ve seen enough of Yusuff to believe his power, currently, is just a 60. But once and for all, his striking with Edson Barboza was close to equal and did prove his striking is a 70. After Lopes’ fight with Evloev I was close to grading his striking a 70. I still want to see more, but both of Lopes’ last two fights have ended in less than two minutes. So there’s projection in the 70 grade, but I’m decently confident that’s what the tool is.
Chris’ Pick: Lopes by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lopes -200
Renato Moicano vs Jalin Turner
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-2 at 155 lbs. 9-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Beat Drew Dober and Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-3 at 155 lbs. 8-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green, Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Brad Riddell and Uros Medic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
The story of the Moicano vs Dober fight is that Moicano’s grappling leveled up to a 75. He got better. And he’ll try to implement the same game plan here to avoid Turner’s power. And even though Moicano’s been knocked out 3 times in the UFC, 2 of the 3 were at 145 lbs where he had a tougher weight cut. I think his chin holds up.
Chris’ Pick: Moicano by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Moicano -175
Jessica Andrade vs Marina Rodriguez
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-3 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mackenzie Dern, Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Xiaonan Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Waterson Gomez got an early take down on Rodriguez in their fight. But then Rodriguez did damage on the feet. And actually took Waterson Gomez down, got the better of the wrestling. Was impressive. I think it’s more likely Rodriguez has finally leveled up her wrestling to a 70 grade but it’s also possible Waterson Gomez was just hurt and Rodriguez’s wrestling could still be a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -135
Bobby Green vs Jim Miller
- Bobby Green
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-10-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Grant Dawson and Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jim Miller
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 26-16
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nik Motta. Submitted Gabriel Benitez, Donald Cerrone, Roosevelt Roberts, and Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
On paper, you might think Green would be a big favorite here as I see him as the much better striker. But Green’s been knocked out in 3 of his last 5 fights and Miller has 3 KO wins in his last 6 fights. But Green should win as he has the better skills. Like, if Alexander Hernandez could out strike Miller 98 to 64, pretty sure Green can too.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Green -250
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 135 lbs. 11-2-1 overall.
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Alex Perez and Tim Elliott. Beat Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Cody Garbrandt
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-4 at 135 lbs. 9-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Trevin Jones and Dominick Cruz.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Garbrandt’s 1st round knockout over Kelleher looked great. But then you look at the numbers and up to that point in the fight, Kelleher actually out struck him 17 to 16 up to that point. Maybe Kelleher’s striking is a 65. Or maybe Garbrandt would’ve taken over as the fight went on. But I hesitate in thinking Garbrandt’s striking is back up to a 70. I haven’t seen enough.
Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Figueiredo -300