St Denis vs Moicano, Imavov vs Allen, Gomis vs Brito Fight Picks – September 28, 2024

Benoit St Denis vs Renato Moicano

  • Benoit St. Denis
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 5-1 at 155 lbs. 5-2 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Renato Moicano
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 6-2 at 155 lbs. 10-5 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Jalin Turner. Beat Drew Dober and Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)

Chris’ Pick: St Denis by 2nd round knockout.


William Gomis vs Joanderson Brito

  • William Gomis
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 12-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri and a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Francis Marshall. Majority decision over a well rounded 13-3 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Joanderson Brito
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 6-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Jack Shore, Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

To my surprise, Gomis closed as only a -205 favorite over Ghemmouri, thinks that Ghemmouri has more power than I do. That said, Gomis out strikes him 47 to 24. Out classed hm. So I’m grading his striking a 70, but it’s in that lower range in the bubble area. Also have no problem upgrading his wrestling to a 65 with how he defended take downs against Marshall and out grappled Ghemmouri.  

Chris’ Pick: Gomis by 2nd round knockout.


Kevin Jousset vs Bryan Battle

  • Kevin Jousset
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Beat Kenan Song. Split decision win over a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Bryan Battle
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 5-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Gabe Green and Takashi Sato. Submitted AJ Fletcher and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Market closed with Jousset as a -150 favorite against Song, but Jousset greatly outperformed the market out striking Song 121 to 55. Market thought Jousset had 65 striking all along, and clearly he does. But I also think it was a landslide due to Song regressing or not being as good as we thought with 55 striking. But I’m confident Jousset’s striking isn’t a 70 as Crosbie out landed him 36 to 25.  

Chris’ Pick: Battle by 2nd round submission.


Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen

  • Nassourdine Imavov
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler. Majority decision over Roman Dolidze.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Brendan Allen
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 12-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker.  Split decision over Chris Curtis.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)

Chris’ Pick: Allen by 1st round submission.


Morgan Charriere vs Gabriel Miranda

  • Morgan Charriere
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 19-10-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal.
  • Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out Maolo Zecchini and a 17-4 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Gabriel Miranda
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 17-6
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Shane Young, a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Miranda by decision.


Fares Ziam vs Matt Frevola

  • Fares Ziam
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini. Split decision over Claudio Puelles.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Matt Frevola
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 6-4-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
  • Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Drew Dober, Ottman Azaitar, and Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.


Ion Cutelaba vs Ivan Erslan

  • Ion Cutelaba
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-9-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
  • Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tanner Boser, Khalil Rountree, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Ivan Erslan
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 14-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter, an 11-4 striker, a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by decision.


Oumar Sy vs Da Woon Jung

  • Oumar Sy
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted George Tokkos. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Da Woon Jung
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu and Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler. 
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Sy by decision.


Ludovit Klein vs Roosevelt Roberts

  • Ludovit Klein
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 6-2-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Cunningham, Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Thiago Moises, Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Roosevelt Roberts
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 5-4
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Vinc Pichel.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Klein by decision.


Ailin Perez vs Darya Dheleznyakova

  • Ailin Perez
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Beat Joselyne Edwards, Lucie Pudilova, and Ashlee Evans Smith
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Dariya Zheleznyakova
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Montserrat Rendon.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.


Victor Altamirano vs Daniel Barez

  • Victor Altamirano
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Felipe dos Santos and Carlos Hernandez.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador, a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Daniel Barez
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 16-6
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker. Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Beat a 3-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Altamirano by decision.


Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle

  • Jacqueline Cavalcanti
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Josiane Nunes, Zarah Fairn, Nora Cornolle and a 4-1 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Nora Cornolle
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Melissa Mullins. Beat Joselyne Edwards.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Cavalcanti’s striking is a legit 70 grade. The 65 grade on her wrestling has more projection baked in but that’s only because we haven’t seen her wrestle much yet.

Chris’ Pick: Cavalcanti by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cavalcanti -250


Bolaji Oki vs Chris Duncan

  • Bolaji Oki
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Beat an 11-0 striker. Split decision over Timothy Cuamba.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Chris Duncan
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Beat Yanal Ashmoz. Split decision over Omar Morales.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I’ve seen Duncan knocked out once and almost knocked out two other times. I’m not a believer in his chin.

Chris’ Pick: Oki by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oki -300


Taylor Lapilus vs Felipe Lima

  • Taylor Lapilus
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Nathan Maness, Yuta Sasaki, an 11-0 wrestler, and an 8-0-1 wrestler. Beat Cody Stamann, Caolan Loughran, a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Split decision over a 6-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Felipe Lima
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 13-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Muhammad Naimov, Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter, an 8-1-1 wrestler, and a 14-5 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: a little above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Lima by 2nd round knockout.

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