Benoit St Denis vs Renato Moicano
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 155 lbs. 5-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-2 at 155 lbs. 10-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Jalin Turner. Beat Drew Dober and Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: St Denis by 2nd round knockout.
William Gomis vs Joanderson Brito
- William Gomis
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri and a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Francis Marshall. Majority decision over a well rounded 13-3 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Jack Shore, Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
To my surprise, Gomis closed as only a -205 favorite over Ghemmouri, thinks that Ghemmouri has more power than I do. That said, Gomis out strikes him 47 to 24. Out classed hm. So I’m grading his striking a 70, but it’s in that lower range in the bubble area. Also have no problem upgrading his wrestling to a 65 with how he defended take downs against Marshall and out grappled Ghemmouri.
Chris’ Pick: Gomis by 2nd round knockout.
Kevin Jousset vs Bryan Battle
- Kevin Jousset
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Beat Kenan Song. Split decision win over a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabe Green and Takashi Sato. Submitted AJ Fletcher and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Market closed with Jousset as a -150 favorite against Song, but Jousset greatly outperformed the market out striking Song 121 to 55. Market thought Jousset had 65 striking all along, and clearly he does. But I also think it was a landslide due to Song regressing or not being as good as we thought with 55 striking. But I’m confident Jousset’s striking isn’t a 70 as Crosbie out landed him 36 to 25.
Chris’ Pick: Battle by 2nd round submission.
Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler. Majority decision over Roman Dolidze.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 12-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Chris Curtis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Allen by 1st round submission.
Morgan Charriere vs Gabriel Miranda
- Morgan Charriere
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal.
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out Maolo Zecchini and a 17-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Gabriel Miranda
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Shane Young, a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Miranda by decision.
Fares Ziam vs Matt Frevola
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini. Split decision over Claudio Puelles.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Drew Dober, Ottman Azaitar, and Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.
Ion Cutelaba vs Ivan Erslan
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-9-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tanner Boser, Khalil Rountree, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ivan Erslan
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter, an 11-4 striker, a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by decision.
Oumar Sy vs Da Woon Jung
- Oumar Sy
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted George Tokkos. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Da Woon Jung
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu and Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Sy by decision.
Ludovit Klein vs Roosevelt Roberts
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Cunningham, Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Thiago Moises, Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Roosevelt Roberts
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Vinc Pichel.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Klein by decision.
Ailin Perez vs Darya Dheleznyakova
- Ailin Perez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Joselyne Edwards, Lucie Pudilova, and Ashlee Evans Smith
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Dariya Zheleznyakova
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Montserrat Rendon.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.
Victor Altamirano vs Daniel Barez
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Felipe dos Santos and Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador, a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Daniel Barez
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker. Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Beat a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Altamirano by decision.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Josiane Nunes, Zarah Fairn, Nora Cornolle and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nora Cornolle
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Melissa Mullins. Beat Joselyne Edwards.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Cavalcanti’s striking is a legit 70 grade. The 65 grade on her wrestling has more projection baked in but that’s only because we haven’t seen her wrestle much yet.
Chris’ Pick: Cavalcanti by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cavalcanti -250
Bolaji Oki vs Chris Duncan
- Bolaji Oki
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Beat an 11-0 striker. Split decision over Timothy Cuamba.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Beat Yanal Ashmoz. Split decision over Omar Morales.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’ve seen Duncan knocked out once and almost knocked out two other times. I’m not a believer in his chin.
Chris’ Pick: Oki by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oki -300
Taylor Lapilus vs Felipe Lima
- Taylor Lapilus
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nathan Maness, Yuta Sasaki, an 11-0 wrestler, and an 8-0-1 wrestler. Beat Cody Stamann, Caolan Loughran, a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Split decision over a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Felipe Lima
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Muhammad Naimov, Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter, an 8-1-1 wrestler, and a 14-5 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: a little above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Lima by 2nd round knockout.