Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Matheus Nicolau a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision wins over Brandon Moreno and Rogerio Bontorin.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Perez, Carlos Henrnadez and a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted Jesus Aguilar, CJ Vergara, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez and Carlos Candelario.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Royval really broke through in his last fight with Moreno. And even though the record says win by split decision, the reality is that Royval out struck Moreno 142 to 103. The last 3 rounds weren’t close. Royval’s speed are cardio were really a sight to behold, especially in elevation in Mexico City, over 5 rounds. Taira has never gone 5 rounds and never faced adversity. I can see Royval wanting to fight at a furious pace here to wear Taira down and think he’ll be successful at it.
Chris’ Pick: Royval by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Royval -225
Jun Yong Park vs Brad Tavares
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andre Muniz.
- Key Wins: Submitted Albert Duraev, Dennis Tiuliulin, and Joseph Holmes. Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision over Eryk Anders.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 15-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Antonio Carlos Jr and Elias Theodorou. Split decision over Omari Akhmedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Park by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Park -250
Chidi Njokuani vs Jared Gooden
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Albert Duraev.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision wins over Rhys McKee and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jared Gooden
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Wellington Turman. Knocked out Niklas Stolze. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Njokuani has been knocked out in 2 of his last 4 fights and I don’t trust his chin.
Chris’ Pick: Gooden by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gooden -175
Grant Dawson vs Rafa Garcia
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-1-1
- Key draws: Fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Mark O. Madsen, Jared Gordon, and Michael Trizano. Beat Joe Solecki, Damir Ismagulov and Nad Narimani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Rafa Garcia
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Jesse Ronson. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Maheshate Hayisaer and a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I know for certain that Guida’s striking is no worse than a 55. And Garcia out struck him 138 to 63. Thus, I’m upgrading Garcia’s striking to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dawson -500
Daniel Rodriguez vs Alex Morono
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker. Split decision over Jingliang Li
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Alex Morono
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Court McGee, Tim Means, Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m not completely sure, but decent possibility Morono’s striking has regressed to more of a 60 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -200
Ramazonbek Temirov vs CJ Vergara
- Ramazonbek Temirov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- CJ Vergara
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva, Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I don’t think Temirov’s wrestling is as good as Vergara’s last opponent Asu Almabaev. But the fight could look similar if Temirov has the cardio to wrestle all fight.
Chris’ Pick: Temirov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Temirov -175
Pat Sabatini vs Jonathan Pearce
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Lucas Almeida, Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat TJ Laramie, Tucker Lutz, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani, Kai Kamaka III, and a 5-1 striker. Submitted Omar Morales. Beat Darren Elkins and Christian Rodriguez
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Sabatini has now shown twice that when forced to stand up, his chin can’t take much damage.
Chris’ Pick: Pearce by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pearce -300
Themba Gorimbo vs Niko Price
- Themba Gorimbo
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 14-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pete Rodriguez. Submitted a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Ramiz Brahimaj, Takashi Sato and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Niko Price
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means. Beat Alex Morono.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Gorimbo’s wrestling is on the bubble between a 65 and a 70 after he picked up more than 10 minutes of control time on Brahimaj. His cardio is what pushes it slightly to a 70 range for me. I see this fight going very similar to how it went in the Brahimaj fight.
Chris’ Pick: Gorimbo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gorimbo -250
Junior Tafa vs Sean Sharaf
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Parker Porter and a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Sean Sharaf
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Sharaf by 1st round knockout.
Sharaf steps in on less than a week’s notice, but he trains close to Vegas at Xtreme Couture.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sharaf -125
Cory McKenna vs Julia Polastri
- Cory McKenna
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Elise Reed.
- Key Wins: Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Cheyanne Vlismas, Kay Hansen, and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Julia Polastri
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Polastri’s wrestling is really close to a 70 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Polastri by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Polastri -175
Cody Haddon vs Dan Argueta
- Cody Haddon
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dan Argueta
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over a 14-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Haddon by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Haddon -175
Clayton Carpenter vs Lucas Rocha
- Clayton Carpenter
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Juancamilo Ronderos, a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Lucas Rocha
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 14-3 fighter, a 7-0 grappler, a 10-3 striker, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. Beat an 11-3 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Slight possibility that Rocha’s striking is a 65. Haven’t seen enough of him to know for sure.
Chris’ Pick: Rocha by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rocha -125