Michel Pereira vs Anthony Hernandez
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 185 lbs. 10-2 overall.
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski, Danny Roberts. Submitted Ihor Potieria, Michel Oleksiejczuk and an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Roman Kopylov, a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out Edmen Shahbazyan and a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Pereira has three 1st round finishes in a row. Which is great. But at the same time, Pereira hasn’t fought more than 2 minutes in a fight in over 2 years. If Pereira can’t get rid of Hernandez quick, you’d think he’s going to have problems with someone with plus cardio in a 5 round fight.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -250
Rob Font vs Kyler Phillips
- Rob Font
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcelo Rojo. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Roani Barcelos, Yadong Song, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Phillips striking for sure leveled up to a 70 in his last bout with Munhoz.
Chris’ Pick: Font by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Font -200
Sumudaerji vs Charles Johnson
- Sumudaerji
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Louis Smolka and a 10-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Malcolm Gordon, a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter, and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Zarrukh Adashev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joshua Van, Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Going to go out on a limb and grade Johnson’s striking a 70. Not my most confident grade, but he did out strike Hadley 66 to 46 and Van 84 to 60. He’s gotten better. Sumudaerji’s fight with Tim Elliott was useful in that it showed I had Sumudaerji a tad over rated.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Johnson -225
Cameron Smotherman vs Jake Hadley
- Cameron Smotherman
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Split decision win over a well rounded 2-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jake Hadley
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 135 lbs. 4-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Carlos Candelario, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out Malcolm Gordon. Beat Caolan Loughran, a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
We haven’t seen Smotherman in the UFC since last year. He’s picked up 3 wins in the minor league circuit since and very possible he rolls in with 60 tools. He did close as a -175 favorite against Charalampos Grigoriou on the Contender.
Chris’ Pick: Hadley by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hadley -400
Darren Elkins vs Daniel Pineda
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 18-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and Mirsad Bektic. Submitted TJ Brown, Luiz Garagorri. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 2-3 in 2nd UFC stint. 5-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tucker Lutz. Knocked out Herbert Burns
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Elkins wrestling is back up to a 65 after he was able to outwrestle Brown. I’m also upgrading Pineda’s grappling to a 65, albeit on the lower end of the scale.
Chris’ Pick: Pineda by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pineda -175
Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev
- Matheus Nicolau
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat David Dvorak, Tim Elliott, Louis Smolka, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decisions over Manel Kape and John Moraga.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Asu Almabayev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 20-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Beat Jose Johnson, CJ Vergara, a 4-0 grappler, and a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Nicolau by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nicolau -200
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto
- Brad Katona
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 grappler. Beat Cody Gibson and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jean Matsumoto
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Dan Argueta, a 7-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Matsumoto by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Matsumoto -350
Joselyne Edwards vs Timires Vidal
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision wins over Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Tamires Vidal
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Montserrat Rendon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ramona Pascual. Submitted a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Vidal might have shown up to the Melissa Gatto fight with improved 65 striking, but I don’t know for sure as most of that fight was on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Edwards -225
Elise Reed vs Jessica Penne
- Elise Reed
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Melissa Martinez. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jessica Penne
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Danielle Taylor.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decisions over Lupita Godinez and Randa Markos.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Penne hasn’t fought in over a year and a half and has only fought twice in the past 3 years. She’s now 41 years old. Chances of regression are high. Could be her retirement fight. Penne’s striking could be as low as a 50 with how she was out struck 115 to 55 by Emily Ducote.
Chris’ Pick: Reed by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Reed -300
Melissa Martinez vs Alice Ardelean
- Melissa Martinez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Alice Ardelean
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-6
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shauna Bannon.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Martinez returns for her first fight in over 2 years. Last time out, she showed striking on the lower end of a 65 and wrestling on the lower end of a 60. But being that we haven’t seen her in over 2 years, I’m very confident those tools will be firmed up with where I’ve graded her. Ardelean fought really well on really short notice against Shauna Bannon. She should look even better here on a full camp.
Chris’ Pick: Ardelean by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ardelean -200
Robelis Despaigne vs Austen Lane
- Robelis Despaigne
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Parisian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Austen Lane
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Lane showed up improved in his last fight with Jhonata Diniz. Took Diniz down, controlled him all 1st round, but gassed himself out. The numbers don’t show 60 striking, but I’m projecting that grade as I think he would’ve had more success on his feet had he not ran out of gas.
Chris’ Pick: Despaigne by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Despaigne -300