Magny vs Prates, de Ridder vs Meerschaert, Robertson vs Pinheiro Fight Picks – November 9, 2024

Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates

  • Neil Magny
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 25-12
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Malott. Hector Lombard. Submitted Daniel Rodriguez. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision wins over Phil Rowe and Max Griffin.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Carlos Prates
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 20-6
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jingliang Li, Charlie Radtke, Trevin Giles, an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Magny has been very inconsistent the past few years, but I do have to give him credit, his last 3 fights have been against likely future title contenders and he’s done pretty good. Got knocked out by Michael Morales last time out, but showed for sure 65 wrestling. On paper, this seems like a lopsided matchup and that the most likely outcome is Prates knocking Magny out in the 1st round. But. Magny is usually durable. Besides getting knocked out by Morales’ the last time he had been knocked out was back in 2018. And Prates hasn’t seen the 3rd round since 2019. If Magny can survive the first couple rounds, he’ll have a chance as this is a 5 round fight and we don’t really know how good Prates’ cardio is yet. Also want to note I think Prates’ striking is in the lower end of a 70 grade. Borderline 65 tool.

Chris’ Pick: Prates by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Prates -200


Reinier de Ridder vs Gerald Meerschaert

  • Reinier de Ridder
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 17-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 12-2 fighter, a 17-1 grappler, and a well rounded 23-4 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 30-6 fighter. Beat an 11-3 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Gerald Meerschaert
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 12-9
  • Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Andre Petroski, Kevin Holland, and Eryk Anders.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Edmen Shahbazyan, Bryan Barberena, Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: de Ridder by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: de Ridder -200


Cortavious Romious vs Gaston Bolanos

  • Cortavious Romious
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Gaston Bolanos
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 7-4
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Bolanos by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bolanos -300


Gillian Robertson vs Luana Pinheiro

  • Gillian Robertson
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 3-1 at 115 lbs. 11-7 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Piera Rodriguez, Mariya Agapova, Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Polyana Viana and Sarah Frota. Beat Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Poliana Botelho.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Luana Pinheiro
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Beat Sam Hughes. Split decision over Michelle Waterson.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Waterson-Gomez was in her retirement fight so very likely her skills regressed, but even still, I think there’s no way her grappling is worse than a 60 grade. And Robertson dominated on the ground with over 12 minutes of control time. She’s got a completely legit 70 grappling tool now. Angela Hill has improved. Showed recently in her Tabatha Ricci fight that her striking has amazingly improved to a 70. So I have no problem grading Pinheiro with 65 striking. But the grappling is different. Hill’s grappling is just a 65. And if Hill was able to submit Pinheiro, pretty sure Robertson will be able to too.

Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Robertson -250


Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dusko Todorovic

  • Mansur Abdul-Malik
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 6-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Wesley Schultz.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Dusko Todorovic
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Maki Pitolo, Michel Pereira, and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Schultz actually out struck Abdul-Malik 36 to 23. Market priced Abdul-Malik as a -300 favorite so I think the fight was much closer because Schultz was better than we thought. Slight chance Abdul-Malik has 65 wrestling.

Chris’ Pick: Abdul-Malik by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Abdul-Malik -200


Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Denise Gomes

  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz
  • Age: 39
  • UFC Record: 9-8
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig. Beat Diana Belbita, Vanessa Demopoulos, Silvana Juarez, and Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Denise Gomes
  • Age: 24
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yazmin Jauregui, Bruna Brasil, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0-1 grappler. Split decision over Eduarda Moura.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Gomes by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gomes -175


Zachary Scroggin vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

  • Zachary Scroggin
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 10-4-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Muslim Salikhov and Nicholas Dalby.
  • Key Draws: Fought Rinat Fakheretdinov to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Omari Akhmedov and Sean Strickland. Beat Benoit St. Denis and Alexey Kunchenko. Split decision wins over Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Lyman Good. 
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Rinat Fakheretdinov didn’t look too good against debuting Carlos Leal in his last fight. Which led me to think Fakheretdinov’s skills might be over rated and thus Zaleski dos Santos only having 60 wrestling after all. But. I know Randy Brown’s wrestling is at least a 60 and Zaleski dos Santos got the better of him there. I’m pretty confident Scroggin’s striking isn’t higher than a 60 right now.

Chris’ Pick: Zaleski dos Santos by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zaleski dos Santos -300


Charlie Radtke vs Matthew Semelsberger

  • Charlie Radtke
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 9-4
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Urbina. Submitted a 6-0 striker. Beat Blood Diamond. Split decision over a 3-1 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Matt Semelsberger
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 5-5
  • Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Jeremiah Wells.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat Jake Matthews, AJ Fletcher, and a 10-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Market thought Prates’ striking was a 70 going into this fight but the striking ended up being close to equal. So either Prates instead has 65 striking or Radtke’s striking could be a 70. Or, being that the fight only lasted 1 round, it’s possible if the match up played out longer that Prates could have pulled ahead in the striking numbers. But the thing I do know for sure is that Radtke’s striking is at a minimum a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Radtke by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Radtke -275


Da’Mon Blackshear vs Cody Stamann

  • Da’Mon Blackshear
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 2-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Luan Lacerda. Submitted Jose Johnson, Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Cody Stamann
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 7-6-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Beat Luan Lacerda, Alejandro Perez, and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blackshear -400


Tresean Gore vs Antonio Trocoli

  • Tresean Gore
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 4-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Josh Fremd.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Antonio Trocoli
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 12-4
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-3 striker.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 3-1 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Trocoli might have lost a lopsided decision to Shara Magomedov, but he took the fight on a few days notice and did well in the clinch in the 1st half of the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Gore by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gore -175


Melissa Mullins vs Klaudia Sygula

  • Melissa Mullins
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Irina Alekseeva and a 3-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Klaudia Sygula
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 5-2 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Mullins by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mullins -135

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