Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-0 at 205 lbs. 9-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree, Jiri Prochazka twice, Jamahal Hill, Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva. Split decision over Jan Blachowicz.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out Anthony Smith. Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Draws: Fought Jan Blachowicz to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Johnny Walker, Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Aleksandar Rakic, Thiago Santos, Nikita Krylov, and Klidson Abreu.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus wrestling (75)
I thought Rakic had 75 striking going into his fight with Ankalaev, thought he’d be able to land more, but instead the strikes were close to equal. So does that mean Ankalaev has 75 striking too? I think more likely not. Could be wrong. But I think Pereira’s striking is a level above. I also have to admit there’s a bit of projection baked into grading Pereira’s wrestling a 70 being that his wrestling hasn’t been tested in awhile. The tool could be as low as a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -175
Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 2
- Justin Gaethje
- Age: 36
- UFC record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone. Beat Michael Chandler. Majority decision over Rafael Fiziev.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Rafael Fiziev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano. Beat Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Fiziev by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fiziev -125
Jalin Turner vs Ignacio Bahamondes
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-4 at 155 lbs. 8-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green, Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Brad Riddell and Uros Medic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Submitted Zhu Rong. Knocked out Manuel Torres, Cristos Giagos, Roosevelt Roberts, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Trey Ogden and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus: (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Turner by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Turner -175
Amanda Lemos vs Iasmin Lucindo
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Michelle Waterson and Miranda Granger. Beat MacKenzie Dern and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Iasmin Lucindo
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Brogan Walker and an 8-3 grappler. Split decision wins over Marina Rodriguez and Sarah Frota.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Lucindo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lucindo -175
King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy
- King Green
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-11-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Grant Dawson and Al Iaquinta. Beat Jim Miller, Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Mauricio Ruffy
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, Ronys Torres, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat James Llontop.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This fight could play out very similar to how Ruffy vs Llontop did. Green’s tools are similar. Ruffy’s striking is on the low side of a 70 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Ruffy by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ruffy -135
Joshua Van vs Rei Tsuruya
- Joshua Van
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Cody Durden and Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Rei Tsuruya
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niushiyue Ji and a 4-1 wrestler. Submitted a 7-0 striker and an 8-3 wrestler. Beat Carlos Hernandez and Mark Climaco.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Tsuruya is a similar challenge to Van as Durden once, potentially more dangerous with the submission game, but I’d also say Durden’s cardio is way better.
Chris’ Pick: Van by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Van -200
Brunno Ferreira vs Armen Petrosyan
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus, Phil Hawes, Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and AJ Dobson. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Shara Magomedov is known as a great stand up guy. 70 grade striking. Well, Petrosyan out struck him 75 to 63, so despite the KO loss, it shows Petrosyan’s has legit 70 striking as well. Ferreira’s striking tool is a low 70 for me. Close to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrosyan -125
Carlos Leal vs Alex Morono
- Carlos Leal
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 21-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 15-6 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-3 wrestler, a well rounded 13-3 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter. Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Split decision over a 8-3 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alex Morono
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-8
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Daniel Rodriguez and Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Court McGee, Tim Means, Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I don’t think Morono has the cardio to maintain 65 striking so I’ve downgraded the tool to a 60. Also possible his grappling has regressed to a 55, but we haven’t seen him on the ground much lately.
Chris’ Pick: Leal by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Leal -300
Mairon Santos vs Francis Marshall
- Mairon Santos
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kaan Ofli, a 5-0 striker and a 6-2 grappler. Beat a 7-1 wrestler and a well rounded 14-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Francis Marshall
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcelo Rojo. Submitted a 4-0 striker. Beat a 5-0 grappler. Split decision over Dennis Buzukja.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -350
Djorden Santos vs Ozzy Diaz
- Djorden Santos
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 12-3 wrestler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ozzy DIaz
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-2 striker. Knocked out Bevon Lewis and a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Santos closed as a +470 underdog on the Contender but showed up way, way improved. Trains with the Bonfim brothers. Possible the striking could be more like a 60, it’s just hard to tell because his opponent Will Currie gassed out so bad. Santos’ cardio and pace was really good.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -225