Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Beneil Dariush, Joaquim Silva, Joel Alvarez, Christos Giagos, and a 15-5 striker. Beat Damir Ismagulov, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler. Split decision over Charles Oliveira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Dan Hooker
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-4 at 155 lbs. 13-8 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Puelles and James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Split decision wins over Mateusz Gamrot, Jalin Turner, and Paul Felder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I wish Tsarukyan was more active as we’ve seen him fight only once in the past 2 years. So there’s a real chance I’m under rating him based on how he had top control of Oliveira towards the end of their fight. But if Hooker is still durable, it’ll be interesting to see how Tsarukyan’s cardio holds up in the second half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tsarukyan -135
Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 15-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Brady. Beat Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Rodriguez, Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Carlos Prates, Michael Page, Neil Magny, Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over Geoff Neal.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Machado Garry showed off legit 75 striking as he out struck Prates 120 to 50. Based on how bad Islam Makhachev beat Jack Della Maddalena and how bad Prates beat Edwards, I think I have no choice but to downgrade Muhammad’s tools. He’s 37 years old now. And yes, the Brady win was spectacular, but that was also over 3 years ago when Muhammad was 34 years old. I could absolutely be wrong here, but I think it’s more plausible that Muhammad has regressed.
Chris’ Pick: Machado Garry by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Machado Garry -225
Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield
- Volkan Oezdemir
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Submitted Bogdan Guskov. Beat Paul Craig. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 12-5-1
- Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute. Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Oumar Sy, Dustin Jacoby. Split decision over Julius Walker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Menifield is one of the more inconsistent fighters in the UFC. You never know which version shows up fight night. But he did fight well and show off 65 tools in his win over Sy.
Chris’ Pick: Oezdemir by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oezdemir -250
Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Joe Pyfer, Chris Curtis, Edmen Shahbazyan and Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Myktybek Orolbai
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mateusz Rebecki.
- Key Wins: Submitted Uros Medic. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Elves Brener, a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I think Hermansson’s skills will carry over well to 170 lbs, but the big question for me is how durable will his chin be, especially if the weight cut is tough.
Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hermansson -125
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Serghei Spivac, Robelis Despagne, Andre Arlovski, Chase Sherman, and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Shamil Gaziev
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thomas Petersen, Martin Buday, Darko Stosic, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Don’Tale Mayes. Split decision over a 13-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Mayes’ regression has forced me to take another look at the numbers in Gaziev’s last few fights and paired especially with Jairzinho Rozenstruik out striking a gassed out Gaziev 123 to 17, I can’t grade Gaziev’s striking a 65 anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Cortes-Acosta by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cortes-Acosta -300
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden, Nathan Maness, a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Azat Maksum, Clayton Carpenter, Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Allan Nascimento.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kyoji Horiguchi
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 34-5
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Manel Kape. Knocked out Ian McCall. Beat Darrell Montague, Chico Camus, Neil Seery, Ali Bagautinov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Horiguchi reminds me of a smaller version of Michael Page with how difficult he is to hit and his in and out movement. Slight chance Horiguchi’s striking could be as high as a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Horiguchi by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Horiguchi -250
Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley
- Bogdan Grad
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lucas Alexander and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Luke Riley
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-2 grappler, a 5-0 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat a 10-3 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Biggest reason Riley won his last fight is his opponent gassed out mid way through the 2nd round and offered almost no resistance after that. It’s possible Riley’s wrestling could be as low as a 50. And cardio happens to be Grad’s biggest weapon.
Chris’ Pick: Grad by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Grad -300
Saygid Izagakhmaev vs Nicolas Dalby
- Saygid Izagakhmaev
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 22-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Carlston Harris.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 wrestler, an 18-3-1 grappler, and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat a 15-4 striker and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Nicolas Dalby
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Wins: Beat Muslim Salikhov, Claudio Silva, Daniel Rodriguez, and Alex Oliveira. Split decisions over Warlley Alves and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Izagakhmaev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Izgakhmaev -225
Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev
- Alex Perez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matheus Nicolau, Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Asu Almabayev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Beat Jose Ochoa, Jose Johnson, CJ Vergara, a 4-0 grappler, and a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (65)
Almabayev’s wrestling is very close to a 75 with the way he out classed Ochoa on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Perez -135
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Raffael Cerqueira
- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 5-1 striker. Beat a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Raffael Cerqueira
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Yahkyaev by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yakhyaev -500
Aleksandre Topuria vs Bekzat Almakhan
- Aleksandre Topuria
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat Colby Thicknesse.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Bekzat Almakhan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Katona, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, a 12-4-1 striker, a 12-4 grappler, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Beat a well rounded 14-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Almakhan by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almakhan -125
Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder
- Ismail Naurdiev
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Beat Siyar Bahadurzada and Michel Prazeres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ryan Loder
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Robert Valentin and an 8-3 grappler. Beat a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Naurdiev showed up way improved in his last fight with Jun Yong Park out striking him 67 to 38. Also a chance Naurdiev’s wrestling is a 70 as well, as he was holding his own with Park in the wrestling the first 2 rounds before being controlled in the 3rd round. Decent chance Naurdiev was gassed out and that’s the reason why.
Chris’ Pick: Naurdiev by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Naurdiev -450
Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock
- Nurullo Aliev
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler. Beat Joe Solecki, a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Majority decision wins over Rafael Alves and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Shem Rock
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker and a 7-1 wrestler. Split decision win over a 15-9 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Aliev by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aliev -600
Marek Bujlo vs Denzel Freeman
- Marek Bujlo
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Denzel Freeman
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Steven Asplund. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Freeman by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Freeman -175