Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov.
- Tools: Walker has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Ovince St Preux. Beat Darko Stosic.
- Tools: Hill has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Great value on Walker here. Hill opens as a -285 favorite. So the oddsmakers likely think Hill has 70 power and Walker’s striking is only a 65. This is where I disagree. Walker’s last fight with Thiago Santos shows up as a loss on his record, but that fight could’ve been a draw. The striking was close to equal and I think Santos has proved his striking is back to a 70. With Hill, yes, his two last wins have been KOs. But Hill has a 9-1 record, has 5 KOs and 4 decision wins. He’s always been a volume guy. But yes, I do have to acknowledge that 3 of Hill’s past 4 wins have been knockouts. So I could be wrong and Hill could have 70 power. But I do know for sure Walker’s striking is a 70 and things will be close on the feet. Hill probably has better cardio and might be able to mix in a couple take downs if he wants. But I’ll say this. I would’ve priced this fight as a pick em. Both at -110. But most of the books have Walker around +225. There’s a lot of value there. It’s like people forgot all of Walker’s 1 minute knockout wins.
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 1st round knockout.
Jamie Pickett vs Kyle Daukaus
- Jamie Pickett
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker. Beat Joseph Holmes and Laureano Staropoli.
- Tools: Pickett has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Daukaus has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
I was very surprised that Pickett upset Holmes. Turned out Holmes was more of a 55 striker than a 60. That made the striking close to equal. Pickett’s wrestling also improved to a 55. Julian Marquez is out, in steps Pickett against Daukaus. On the feet, this could be interesting. Pickett has more power. But the obvious path for Daukaus to win is to get back to his grappling. He should be able to get Pickett down and control him until he locks the submission in. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’d price Daukaus at -225.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 2nd round submission.
Parker Porter vs Alan Baudot
- Parker Porter
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 11-6
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian.
- Tools: Porter has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Alan Baudot
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Baudot has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Baudot is an interesting fighter. He got steamrolled by Tom Aspinall in his UFC debut. No shame there. Then his last fight with Rodrigo Nascimento, which was later ruled a no contest, Baudot dominated the 1st round. Looked great. But then gassed out hard in the 2nd round. Maybe an adrenaline dump? We’ll see. It’s very possible Baudot’s striking could be a 60, but hard to say because he was so different the 2nd round. With Porter, after further review, I’m concluding his striking is currently a 65, albeit with 55 power. So I think this is one of the safer bets on the card. If Baudot’s striking does turn out to be a 60, he could have more power, could knock Porter out. But Porter has proved to be durable so far. He’s only gotten knocked out once since 2013 and that’s by Chris Daukaus. Ultimately, Porter has margin in the striking technique and he’s very likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Porter by decision.
Jim Miller vs Nick Motta
- Jim Miller
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 22-15
- Key Wins: Submitted Roosevelt Roberts and Clay Guida.
- Tools: Miller has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Nick Motta
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joe Solecki and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Motta has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Either I’m going to be wrong or the oddsmakers will be wrong. Most of the books have opened Motta around -200. That’s because they think Motta’s striking is a 60 and will be able to out strike Miller. I disagree though. Motta fought Joseph Lowry on The Contender. I graded Lowry’s striking a 50. And the market agreed with me as Motta was a -250 favorite. But then the fight happens and it’s really close. The striking was close to equal, matter of fact, Lowry out landed Motta. But Motta got the win because he had more power and did more damage. So what happened? Is Motta’s striking really a 60? For that to be legit, you’d also have to say Lowry has 60 striking too and I see no way how that’s possible. So I could be wrong but I’m sticking with giving Motta a 55 on his striking which translates into a razor close fight. Motta will have more power, might do more damage. But Miller has no problem grinding his way through a fight and I see Motta gassing out in the 2nd half because of all the power shots he’ll throw early.
Chris’ Pick: Miller by split decision.
Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Buckley has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alessio di Chirico and Niko Price.
- Tools: Alhassan has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
On the one hand, on paper, I’m confident in betting on Buckley. From what I’ve seen and what the data says, he should have the better striking. Alhassan started his UFC career 4-1. Then had some legal issues, was gone for 2 years. Came back and lost 3 in a row. His last fight with di Chirico, Alhassan knocked him out in 17 seconds. Is he back? Maybe. Hard to tell when the fight only lasts 17 seconds. But Buckley is only -150. That’s a decent price as I’d have Buckley at -200.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 1st round knockout.
Jonathan Pearce vs Christian Rodriguez
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kai Kamaka III and a 5-1 striker. Submitted Omar Morales.
- Tools: Pearce has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-1 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Rodriguez was a 2 to 1 favorite to beat Reyes Cortez Jr on The Contender. He cruised to a win, but didn’t blow me away either. It’s possible his striking could be a 60. But I am confident his grappling is a 50. Maybe Cortez has 55 wrestling and maybe it’s more like a 50. But Cortez got the better of Rodriguez in the clinch, got a couple take downs, got the better of him there. So what is he going to do in this fight? Pearce, who fought Morales, and I know Morales has at least 55 wrestling. Pearce took Morales down over and over again. Stayed on him, until Morales ran out of gas and Pearce sunk the choke in. And it’s very likely Morales has better grappling than Rodriguez. AND Rodriguez is coming in on less than a week’s notice. These guys are featherweights, less of a chance of a fluky knockout like in some of the heavier weight classes. I would price Pearce at -450, but he’s opened at -340, which is a bargain. But I predict he’ll get up to -450 as we get closer to the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Pearce by 1st round submission.
Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Bautisa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Jay Perrin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Perrin has fringe average striking (45) and average grappling (50).
I watched one of Perrin’s last fights, against a 12-4 grappler. I wasn’t impressed. He was more interesting in grappling the opponent. Fight went back and forth. Got tired pretty easily. Average 50 grappling. And that’s not going to cut it with a world class prospect like Bautista. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’m looking forward to betting this fight because there’s margin and Perrin is taking this fight on less than a week’s notice. Plus these guys are bantamweights so there’s less risk of a fluke knockout. I think anything under -525 for Bautista is good value, because of how likely he is to win.
Chris’ Pick: Bautista by 2nd round knockout.
Gabriel Benitez vs David Onama
- Gabriel Benitez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Enrique Barzola.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight.
- Tools: Benitez has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- David Onama
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Onama has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
It’s been awhile since I’ve seen such an eye opening debut in the UFC. Onama takes on Mason Jones, who’s widely considered to be an elite prospect. Onama fights on just a few days notice. Fights up a weight class. And for starter’s the striking between the two was dead equal. Matter of fact, Onama landed 1 more significant strike than Jones did, 70-69. Jones was slightly better in the wrestling and had the cardio to take Onama down throughout the whole fight, but again, Onama was the smaller guy, fighting up a weight class. I’d even say it’s possible Onama’s striking could be a 70, although I’m grading it a 65 for now. The fight was just announced, odds aren’t out there yet, but I’d price Onama as a -275 favorite over Benitez. With Benitez, 60 striking and 60 wrestling is the high end of what he can do. Those tools might be closer to a 55, so I’d say Onama has some margin here.
Chris’ Pick: Onama by decision.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Stephanie Egger
- Jessica-Rose Clark
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 125 lbs. 4-2 overall
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sarah Alpar. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Paige VanZant.
- Tools: Clark has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Stephanie Egger
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shanna Young and Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Tools: Egger has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Tricky fight to pick. Clark has fought once a year since 2018. Past couple fights, hasn’t fought too much on the feet. I have her striking graded a 55 for now, but it could be a 60. I do know Clark’s wrestling is a legit 65 and I also know Egger is good enough on the ground to be able to get back up after taken down. Egger will have more power and there’s ways for her to win. Books opened with Clark around a -200 favorite. I’d have Clark at -150. No way I’m betting on Clark, but she’s the most likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Clark by decision.
Chas Skelly vs Mark Striegl
- Chas Skelly
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Jason Knight.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Greutezemacher.
- Tools: Skelly has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Mark Striegl
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 6-5 fighter and a 7-3 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a 5-1 striker. Split decision win over a 10-2-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Striegl has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Betting on Skelly here is something I’m not going to do. He’s opened around -225. That’s way too heavy. I would have Skelly at -125. The oddsmakers seem to have Striegl’s striking as a 50. But I wouldn’t bet on it, literally haha. Striegl made his UFC debut with Said Nurmagomedov. Got knocked out in 51 seconds. But before the KO, he was doing okay. Again, not much to go off of. But I don’t think you can just throw away the fact that the distance strikes were 3 vs 3. It’s possible Striegl’s striking is a 50. It’s possible Skelly’s wrestling is a 65. Skelly could have a slight edge. But then again, it could be a very close fight where who knows what the judges do with it.
Chris’ Pick: Skelly by decision.
Diana Belbita vs Gloria de Paula
- Diana Belbita
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat Hannah Goldy. Majority decision win over a 0-2 fighter in 2017.
- Tools: Belbita has above average striking (60). She also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Gloria de Paula
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: de Paula has above average striking (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
The UFC did a great job matching these two up. Both are one dimensional. They’re strikers. Especially de Paula, being that I have her grappling as a 45. But I have their striking graded equally. Both 60s. Belbita should have a slight edge in the wrestling, if she wants to push de Paula against the fence and go to work in the clinch. Other than that, I don’t see too many edges here either way. But I’m going to pick Belbita because de Paula is coming off a knockout. Might be a little too gun shy. Not super confident in the pick though. Coin flip fight.
Chris’ Pick: Belbita by 2nd round knockout.
Jesse Strader vs Chad Anheliger
- Jesse Strader
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Strader has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Chad Anheliger
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-5
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brady Hiestand, a 4-1 grappler, and a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a well rounded 16-3 fighter.
- Tools: Anheliger has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Oddsmakers really got this one wrong. Yeah, on the surface, Strader fought Montel Jackson in his UFC debut, got knocked out in less than 2 minutes. Looks bad. But the fight was on short notice. And. Even though the fight didn’t last long, Strader was out striking Jackson up until he got knocked out. And Jackson has 65 striking. Want more proof? Strader, who was 3-0 at the time in 2018, fought Marcelo Rojo, and Rojo has 60 striking. The striking was close to equal. Strader almost knocked Rojo out, Rojo came back, knocked Strader out. My point though, is that Strader only has 7 pro fights, it’s not a bad start to his career that he can hang with guys like this. Yes, Anheliger upset Muin Gafurov on The Contender. Because his wrestling is actually a 55 and he was able to get back up. But I think Strader will be able to out strike Anheliger and Strader can be had as high as +220 right now. That’s crazy.
Chris’ Pick: Strader by decision.