Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal
- Colby Covington
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tyron Woodley. Beat Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Robbie Lawler.
- Tools: Covington has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
- Jorge Masvidal
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-6 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Demian Maia, Ben Henderson, and Lorenz Larkin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Diaz, Ben Askren, Darren Till, and Donald Cerrone.
- Tools: Masvidal has near plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
Part of me feels like the -350 Covington has opened at is a bit too heavy. I think the reason it opened that way is that oddsmakers thought the same thing I did. Usman knocked out Masvidal because Usman’s striking was better. But look at the data. And I had to click refresh to make sure my eyes weren’t deceiving me. Turns out Masivdal out struck Usman 27-12. Huh. Not what I was expecting. Turns out Usman landed the lucky KO shot. Not saying Usman would’ve lost. Based on what I saw, I think if Usman focused on his wrestling, taking Masvidal down again and again, tiring him out, then really beating him up on the ground, he would’ve been fine doing that and winning. Well, that’s why the other part of me thinks -350 for Covington is just right. Maybe Masvial’s striking is a 75. Maybe it’s a 70. I’m not sure. But I don’t think Covington is going to give us a chance to find out. Masvidal could absolutely knock him out. Despite the theatrics leading into the fight, look for Covington to be smart and take the path of least resistance.
Chris’ Pick: Covington by decision.
Rafael dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 15-7 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Beat Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Tools: dos Anjos has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 155 lbs. 8-4 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Beat Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Tools: Moicano has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus grappling (70).
Dos Anjos had his first fight at 155 lbs in 4 years against Felder. Won the fight with his wrestling. But I know the wrestling is a 65 because of how Felder kept getting up. And guys, Felder fought a 5 round fight on less than a week’s notice. Felder out struck dos Anjos, proving dos Anjos has 65 striking. And Moicano, he’s really interesting. Let’s rewind to 2017. He takes on young Brian Ortega. Dominates Ortega on the feet, out striking him almost 2 to 1. Gets caught in a guillotine and taps. It happens. Next fight, dominates Calvin Kattar. Took his legs out, lands more than 3 to 1 strikes on him. Takes on Cub Swanson, knocks him down, chokes him out. Looks like a title contender. Has 70 striking. Next up Jose Aldo. And Moicano out strikes Aldo 24 to 19. The problem though is Moicano’s power is only a 60. Aldo with way more power knocks Moicano out. Then Moicano fights The Korean Zombie. Same problem. Zombie with way more power. And maybe Moicano had a bad weight cut because Zombie knocked him out in 58 seconds. Moves up to 155 lbs. And for the 3rd time in 4 fights, Moicano goes against a 70 striker with more power than him. Does fine on the feet, but gets knocked out. Moicano bounces back, goes against Herbert with 65 striking. Takes Herbert down, gets the choke. And we’re almost caught up. Moicano’s last fight with Hernandez. Striking is close to equal, but gets some take downs on Hernandez and chokes him out in the 2nd round. Moicano is now training at American Top Team. And it looks like the Marcin Tybura stratgey of getting him to focus on his grappling more. So in conclusion, I think Moicano is still the same guy he was back when he beat Ortega, Kattar, and Swanson in a row. He has one big flaw and that’s his chin. And the fact that he’s more of a volume striker. Maybe his chin holds up better at the bigger weight class. After all my digging, I’m pretty confident Moicano has better striking and has better grappling. Now, the X factor here is Moicano taking this fight on 4 days notice. Normally, I’d price Moicano as a -225 favorite. But even with him taking the fight on short notice, I’d still price him at -150. Moicano has great cardio. Never seen him tire out in a fight. And stylistically, Moicano is a much different fight than Fiziev. More well rounded. Line has opened with Moicano at +150 and I think he’s a live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Moicano by decision.
Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell
- Edson Barboza
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 2-2 at 145 lbs. 14-9 UFC record at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Beat Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
- Tools: Barboza has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Bryce Mitchell
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles. Beat Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Bobby Moffett.
- Tools: Mitchell has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
Going into the Mitch vs Andre Fili fight, I thought striker vs grappler. I watched it. And ok, Mitchell won because he kept taking Fili down and controlled him. If Mitchell couldn’t keep taking him down, he would’ve lost the fight. Right? Well, actually the data says Mitchell out landed Fili. Wow. The commentators were making it seem as if Fili was winning the stand up by a decent chunk. Not the case. Anyway, not that it’ll matter with Barboza. Mitchell won’t want any of that, even though he’s made gigantic improvements in his striking. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’d price this as a pick em, each at -115. Will Mitchell take Barboza down? Yes. Will Barboza be able to get up? Very likely. Will Mitchell catch Barboza in a submission after one of these take downs? That’s what this fight comes down to and I’m picking, yes.
Chris’ Pick: Mitchell by 2nd round submission.
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-3 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Tools: Holland has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Alex Oliveira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-9
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Yancy Medeiros.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Beat Peter Sobotta.
- Tools: Oliveira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
This is a nice soft landing type matchup for Holland to build him back up. And that’s no knock on Oliveira. He’s a quality fighter. It’s just Holland has fought the likes of Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. Then had that no contest with Kyle Daukaus. But those were middleweight fights. Holland now steps down to 170 lbs for the first time in the UFC. Look, the odds aren’t out yet, but I expect Holland to open as a big favorite. I’d price him at -375. Holland should be bigger and stronger at 170 lbs. Harder to take down. And on the feet, I know Holland has at least 70 striking. Yes, he lost to Vettori, but Holland out landed him 31-15 in distance significant strikes. That’s impressive. My only question is what the weight cut does to Holland’s body and his chin’s ability to absorb damage, but I don’t think Oliveira is much of a KO threat here.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
Greg Hardy vs Serghei Spivac
- Greg Hardy
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Allen Crowder.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maurice Greene and Juan Adams. Beat Yorgan de Castro.
- Tools: Hardy has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tai Tuivasa and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Tools: Spivac has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
I like Hardy. I like his potential. Because guys, he’s only had 11 pro fights. Most fighters arrive in the UFC around this time. But Spivac is a horrible matchup for Hardy. It’s possible Spivac’s grappling could be a 70. I downgraded it because he couldn’t get a single take down off Tom Aspinall. Maybe Aspinall’s wrestling is way better than I think, but I’m going to leave Spivac’s grappling at a 65 for now. On the feet, yeah, Hardy would do damage, but this fight will be all about how much better Hardy’s wrestling has gotten. Because Hardy took on Marcin Tybura. Was doing okay. But then got taken down once and it was all over. He’s still very green when it comes to knowing how to get back up. And with a grappler like Spivac who has fight ending submissions, all it’s going to take is maybe 1 or 2 take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by 2nd round submission.
Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 155 lbs. 5-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Uros Medic.
- Tools: Turner has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Mullarkey has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Mullarkey has improved tons since his close loss to Fares Ziam. After his knockout win over Smith, I’m really close to grading his striking a 70. And he’s also got plus cardio. Which I think will be the main factor in determining who wins this fight. On paper, this should be a pick em fight. I have both guys graded exactly the same. But Mullarkey is going to put a pace on Turner and should take over the fight in the 2nd half.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by decision.
Marina Rodriguez vs Xiaonan Yan
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Rodriguez has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Xiaonan Yan
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Beat Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill.
- Tools: Xiaonan has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Rodriguez is like the Derrick Lewis of the women’s strawweight division. In my opinion, she has the most power in the 115 lb division. And that’s what’s going to make the difference in this fight. And truth be told, Rodriguez has better wrestling too. Could clinch Xiaonan against the fence, try to wear her down a bit. It’s also possible Xiaonan has 65 striking. I would set Rodriguez as a -175 favorite. Because Xiaonan’s striking probably is a 70 and if Rodriguez doesn’t knock her out, the striking totals could be really close when they go to the judges score cards.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
Nicolae Negumereanu vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Nicolae Negumereanu
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over Aleksa Camur.
- Tools: Negumereanu has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danilo Marques and Carlos Ulberg.
- Tools: Nzechukwu has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m fairly certain Negumereanu’s striking is a 55. Can’t really tell much from his last fight. He knocked Villanueva out in about a minute. Before that, he took on Camur and Camur probably has 60 striking. And even though Negumereanu got the win, I thought he lost the fight as Camur clearly out landed him. Negumereanu was supposed to take on prospect Ihor Potieria, but instead he gets Nzechukwu. And Nzechukwu, he was pretty daring in his last fight. He literally stood in a phone booth with Da Un Jung. Toes almost touching. Slugging it out. And Nzechukwu fell first. But I’m still fairly certain his striking is a 60. That should get the job done against Negumereanu.
Chris’ Pick: Nzechukwu by 2nd round knockout.
Mariya Agapova vs Maryna Moroz
- Mariya Agapova
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Sabina Mazo and Hannah Cifers. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Tools: Agapova has near plus striking (65). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Maryna Moroz
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Tools: Moroz has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
I don’t understand the oddsmakers opening Agapova as a favorite. Probably regency bias. But it’s projection. Agapova has fought a wrestler on Moroz’s level. Tracy Cortez. Cortez was able to take Agapova down and control her there most of the fight. Yes, it was close to 3 years ago? Has Agapova’s wrestling gotten better? It’s possible. But we haven’t seen it. Moroz’s wrestling is for sure a 65. No doubt, based on her ability to take down a 60 grappler in Bueno Silva in her last fight. And then there’s Agapova’s cardio issues. Yes, she knocked Mazo out in her last fight. Looked great. But if you dig deeper in the numbers, you’ll see Agapova out struck Mazo close to 2 to 1 in the first round. But then striking was close to equal in the second round. Because Agapova still is having problems managing her gas tank in a fight. Slowed down significantly after the first. Yes, Agapova could knock Moroz out. But I’d price Moroz at -175. I think she could win with take downs and even if she can’t, I expect her to really pressure Agapova and tire her out to win the second and third rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Moroz by decision.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Brian Kelleher
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Sergey Morozov. Beat a 12-0-1 grappler and a 5-0 grappler.
- Tools: Nurmagomedov near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Brian Kelleher
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Kevin Croom, Domingo Pilarte and Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
- Tools: Kelleher has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
This is one of the most intriguing fights on the card for me. In Umar, you got a guy with legit champion potential. He looks very similar to Zabit Magomedsharipov. I’m confident he has 65 wrestling and his striking is at least a 65. Possible the striking tool could be a 70. And he takes on Kelleher, who I don’t think is a journeyman anymore. Since losing to Ricky Simon, he’s improved his wrestling to a 65. This is a legit test for Umar. Ground game should cancel out here. Kelleher has more power, but if there’s no KO, Umar should land more. Odds aren’t out yet, but I expect Umar to be a big favorite because of all the hype. But in my opinion, a fair price for Umar would be around -175.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by decision.
Tim Elliott vs Tagir Ulanbekov
- Tim Elliott
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-10
- Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Louis Smolka, Ryan Benoit, and Jordan Espinosa.
- Tools: Elliott has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Tagir Ulanbekov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 15-2 wrestler and a 13-2 grappler. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Beat Bruno Silva, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Allan Nascimento.
- Tools: Ulanbekov has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I’ve watched a ton of Elliott fights. All 20 of them. And even though he lost his last fight to Matheus Nicolau, it was the best he’s looked of his career. Based on what Nicolau did with Manel Kape, I’m confident Nicolau has well rounded 65 tools. And Elliott was able to match both the wrestling and the striking. Both were about as equal as it can get. Crazy how at 35 years old, Elliott is getting better. With Ulanbekov, I’m not entirely sure his striking is a 60. It could be a 55. I have Bruno Silva at 55 striking and when they fought, it was close to equal. Then Ulanbekov fought a 60 striker in Nascimento and Nascimento out landed him 14-8 in distance significant strikes. So there’s some possible margin in picking Elliott in the striking. And the odds aren’t out yet, but I would price Elliott at -175. But I have a feeling Elliott will have some good value as Ulanbekov went into his Nascimento fight as a -400 favorite, so he’s got a lot of hype.
Chris’ Pick: Elliott by decision.
Devonte Smith vs Ludovit Klein
- Devonte Smith
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out Dong Hyun Ma, Julian Erosa, a 7-2 wrestler and an 8-0 striker.
- Tools: Smith has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 4-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat an 11-2 striker.
- Tools: Klein has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
Michael Trizano vs Hakeem Dawodu proved where Klein’s tools are currently at. Klein fought Trizano. Striking was close to equal. But some thought Klein had 65 striking, thus making Trizano’s striking a 65. Trizano fought Dawodu who has 70 striking. Line closed with Dawodu as a -155 favorite, because the majority thought Trizano’s striking was a 60. But Dawodu out classed Trizano. Out struck him by a 2 to 1 clip. Thus, I’m confident in grading Klein’s striking a 60. And even though Smith got knocked out by Jamie Mullarkey, the striking was close to equal up until the end of the fight. Mullarkey really won because of his pace and cardio. Shouldn’t be a problem for Smith in this fight as Klein is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. I ultimately think the Smith has better striking and more power. Oddsmakers have opened Smith around -170 and I agree that’s a fair price.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 2nd round knockout.
Dustin Jacoby vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-0-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Maxim Grishin and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jacoby has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Tools: Oleksiejczuk has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Love this fight. Striking is close to equal but both guys execute in different ways. Jacoby is the technical guy. Uses range. Is very accurate. Oleksiejczuk is very unique. Smaller light heavyweight, could probably make middleweight. But like Frankie Edgar did back at 155 lbs, he puts on an incredible pace. Could have the best cardio in the whole 205 lb division. Each guy is capable of knocking the other one out. I do think Oleksiejczuk has more power. I’m close to grading Jacoby’s power a 55. He needs lots of volume usually to get the KO. Odds aren’t out yet but I’d price Oleksiejczuk at -135. Slight advantage. No way I’m betting this fight though.
Chris’ Pick: Oleksiejczuk by 3rd round knockout.