Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Aleksandar Rakic
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
The blueprint has been laid out for Rakic to win here. Based off of what we now know in hindsight, Blachowicz’s striking is more of a 70, not a 75. And his wrestling is more of a 65, not a 70. Or maybe he’s just now finally regressing at 39 years of age. But wow, his last fight with Teixeira was an eye opener. And Rakic has surprised me in that his wrestling has become better than his striking. Matter of fact, after he lost a close fight to Volkan Oezdemir, that’s when Rakic really got to work on the wrestling. Fought Smith, took him down and controlled him all fight. And in a close fight on the feet with Santos, it was Rakic’s slight advantage in wrestling and clinch work on the fence that proved the difference. And after seeing what Teixeira did to Blachowicz, I can guarantee you we see Rakic shoot within the first minute of the fight. Both fighter’s career trajectories are heading in opposite directions. I’m very confident Rakic gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Rakic by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rakic -225
Ryan Spann vs Ion Cutelaba
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Misha Cirkunov and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-5-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s hard to pin down exactly where I think Spann’s striking is at. Because his last 3 fights have all ended in the 1st round. His striking was about equal with 70 striker Johnny Walker, but we’re talking 4 to 3. And I almost downgraded Spann’s striking to a 65 after he got knocked out by Anthony Smith, but Smith only out struck Spann by 11 to 6, with Smith picking up a few shots when Spann was hurt. Striking was about equal up to when he got hurt. I’m going to leave his striking a 70 for now, but it could very well easily be a 65. For Cutelaba, he’s enjoyed using his new toy, his wrestling. He even used it to beat another wrestler in Clark. But it’d be dangerous for Cutelaba to do that here with Spann and his grappling. I think Spann has a slight edge on the feet. Slightly better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Spann by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Spann -175
Davey Grant vs Louis Smolka
- Davey Grant
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jonathan Martinez. Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Louis Smolka
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-2 at 135 lbs.8-8 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paddy Holohan and Mudaerji Su. Knocked out Jose Quinonez and Ben Nguyen.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Grant has to be one of the most under rated fighters in the UFC. His last opponent Adrian Yanez was favored -380 going in. But the fight ended up being very close. Yanez won on the decision and out landed Grant just 100 to 98. So Grant has proven his 65 striking time and again. Smolka does have a path to win here though. He should have better wrestling than Grant. Will probably get a couple take downs and may catch Grant in a submission. But outside of that, Grant is more likely to win. And Smolka was knocked out in the 1st round in his last fight.
Chris’ Pick: Grant by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Grant -200
Katlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas
- Katlyn Chookagian
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 125 lbs. 9-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
- Key Wins: Beat Jennifer Maia, Viviane Araujo, Cynthia Calvillo, Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Virna Jandiroba, Randa Markos, and MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I love betting on Chookagian because she’s so consistent and you know what you’re going to get. But I can’t bet her here as Ribas is a bad matchup. Chookagian’s wrestling should help keep Ribas’ grappling away, but the reality is that Ribas has a bunch more power than Chookagian. If you watch Ribas strike with Marina Rodriguez and then Ribas strike with Jandiroba, you’ll see she’s much improved in the Jandiroba fight. That power difference and landing more damage is what will lead to Ribas getting a close win.
Chris’ Pick: Ribas by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ribas -150
Frank Camacho vs Manuel Torres
- Frank Camacho
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-2 at 155 lbs. 2-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Justin Jaynes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nick Hein. Split decision win over Damien Brown.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Manuel Torres
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 14-5 fighter and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I was going to pick Camacho. Because if you look at Torres’ record, you’ll see that 13 of his 14 pro fights have ended in the 1st round. And Torres did out strike a 50 striker on The Contender, although it was only 2 minutes of action. Truth be told, it’s possible both Camacho and Torres could have 60 striking. But I was thinking all Camacho has to do is weather the storm. And pour it on in the second half of the fight. But instead I’m picking Torres because Camacho isn’t durable. All 3 of Camacho’s last losses, he’s been finished. And in his last 2 fights, he’s been finished in the 1st round. That’s right in Torres’ wheelhouse. Camacho is going to have to mix some take downs in to win, but Torres might have 55 wrestling. And then there’s the issue that Camacho can’t implement the wrestling if he gets finished in a couple minutes.
Chris’ Pick: Torres by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Torres -125
Allan Nascimento vs Jake Hadley
- Allan Nascimento
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Tagir Ulanbekov and Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 grappler and a 10-3 grappler. Beat a well rounded 16-4 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jake Hadley
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Crazy to think that Nascimento is 0-2 to start his UFC career, but both were split decision losses to potential contenders. Hadley gets a really tough assignment here. Despite submitting Mitch Raposo on The Contender, I was underwhelmed with Hadley. He was taken down and controlled in the 1st round. And the striking was close to equal. I really like Nascimento here. He out struck Paiva, who probably had 60 striking at the time.
Chris’ Pick: Nascimento by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nascimento -400
Viviane Araujo vs Angela Lee
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa ,and Alexis Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: plus (70)
This is an instance where just looking at the numbers and stats doesn’t give you the full context of a fight. Look at Araujo’s last fight with Katlyn Chookagian. Numbers say that Araujo’s grappling is better, she got Chookagian down, controlled her for a bit, almost caught her in a choke. So she’s improved there. But then you look at the striking numbers and think okay, Chookagian showed she’s the superior striker. Chookagian out landed her 121 to 85 in the fight. But what those numbers don’t show is the striking was close to equal going into the middle of the fight. And then what happened? Araujo had Chookagian on the ground and went all in for the guillotine choke. Gassed her arms out. That’s why the 3rd round was so lopsided in Chookagians favor 54 to 34. So based on that, I’m upgrading Araujo’s striking to a 70. And Lee showed improved striking in her last fight too with Cynthia Calvillo. I did upgrade her striking to a 65, but Calvillo was a smaller flyweight who’s moving back down to 115 lbs. So maybe Lee’s striking is a 60. I’m not sure. But what I am sure about is Araujo will have a monster power advantage. As long as Araujo doesn’t gas out, she should win.
Chrs’ Pick: Araujo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Araujo -250
Michael Johnson vs Alan Patrick
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-11 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Stevie Ray.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Poirier. Beat Edson Barboza
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Alan Patrick
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Beat John Makdessi and Stevie Ray.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Coin flip fight. Patrick showed he’s much better than I gave him credit for in his last fight with Mason Jones. Fight ended in a no contest due to Patrick getting poked in the eye, but still, he had a good showing. Jones out struck him, but only by a little bit. Johnson’s last fight showed the wear and tear on his body is taking a toll. Guida won the fight by tiring Johnson out. Johnson was able to get up from take downs in the 1st half of the fight, but not the 2nd half and that gave Guida the W. Johnson should have more power here, but I like Patrick’s career trajectory a little better despite the age. Who knows what the judges do with this one.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Johnson -125
Virna Jandiroba vs Angela Hill
- Virna Jandiroba
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Angela Hill
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-8
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Ashley Yoder and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Really close fight. I do have to give Hill credit for improving her wrestling. That’s what made her fight with Amanda Lemos so close. Hill had better wrestling and was able to control Lemos in the clinch along the fence for good chunks of the fight. She’s also shown her striking is a clear 65 which is better than Jandiroba’s. It’s also possible Jandiroba’s striking could be as low as a 55. But I’m actually picking Jandiroba because I do think she’ll be able to get some take downs and she’s just so good on the ground with her submission game. Hill does have the ability to get back up and score points on the feet. But I think at one of the times the fight goes to the ground, Jandiroba will eventually get the submission.
Chris’ Pick: Jandiroba by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Jandiroba -135
Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted a 6-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Carlos Candelario
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I was wrong about Candelario. I had his tools graded way lower than they should’ve been. He took on Victor Altamirano on The Contender and I wasn’t that impressed by either guy. I was impressed by Carlos Hernandez though. He took on Altamirano and the fight was super close. Turns out I was under rating Altamirano and thus under rating Candelario. He takes on Taira. I watched him take on a 6-2 striker. Taira did well. Looks like 55 striking and 55 grappling. But you never know with prospects and I’m not as confident with grades of fighters making their UFC debut. You just never know if the tools translate in the Octagon.
Chris’ Pick: Candelario by decision.
What I think the line should be: Candelario -200
Nick Maximov vs Andre Petroski
- Nick Maximov
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Beat Cody Brundage and an 11-2 wrestler. Split decision over Punahele Soriano.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Yaozong Hu.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Maximov has had 3 fights in the UFC so far and nobody has been able to stop his grappling as of yet. I don’t see that changing here with Petroski. Based on being confident that Micheal Gillmore’s wrestling is a 50, Petroski only showed 55 wrestling in that fight. And yeah, Petroski dominated in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in his fight with Yaozong, but Yaozong went into that fight with a 3-2 pro record, making his middleweight debut, cutting all the way down from heavyweight. Hard to know exactly where his tools are at. But I’m confident Soriano’s wrestling is at least a 60. Maximov showed better grappling, once again proving the tool is a 65. I expect Maximov to win more impressively here. Especially towards the 3rd round because Petroski has below average cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Maximov by 3rd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Maximov -250
Daniel Pineda vs Jamall Emmers
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 1-1 in 2nd UFC stint. 4-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 18-6
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 17-14 striker. Knocked out by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
That split decision loss to Giga Chikadze sure has aged well on Emmers’ record. But this is still a tricky fight to pick. Yes, the close loss to Chikadze looks good. But Emmers underwhelmed me in the Vince Cachero fight. Maybe Cachero is better than I think and it’s possible Emmers striking could be a 65, but I have him as a 60 for now as his striking with Cachero was close to equal. Pineda’s fight with Fili ended on an eye poke, but the fight went long enough for me to see that he didn’t make any improvements. Tools were the same. So this will be close. Biggest differentiator that sticks out will be Pineda’s power advantage. But if Emmers’ striking is a 65, he could win as well.
Chris’ Pick: Pineda by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pineda -125