Holm vs Vieira, Ponzinibbio vs Pereira, Todorovic vs Njokuani Fight Picks – May 21, 2022

Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira

  • Holly Holm
  • Age: 39
  • UFC Record: 7-5
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correira. Beat Raquel Pennington twice. Beat Irene Aldana and Megan Anderson at 145 lbs.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Ketlen Vieira
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Miesha Tate, Sijara Eubanks, and Ashley Evans-Smith.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Holm is still an elite fighter. She lost a close fight to Cris Cyborg at 145 lbs. Used her wrestling to beat a natural featherweight in Anderson. Got knocked out by Amanda Nunes, but before the KO, the striking was equal at 11 to 11. Used her wrestling and clinch work to beat Pennington. Cruised in her win over Aldana. We now know Aldana possesses 70 striking. Holm out struck her. Had equal striking to Nunes. Easy for me to give her a 75 grade there, albeit with 65 power. Vieira has improved a lot, but her striking is still a 65 for me. I graded her last opponent Tate with 60 striking going into that fight. The market thought Tate had 65 striking and the line closed at a pick em -110 price on each. And the market proved to be right as the striking was close to equal. I really don’t see a path for Vieira to win here. Holm has some of the best cardio in the division, going 5 rounds is an advantage for her. Vieira lacks big power and won’t be able to get Holm on the ground.

Chris’ Pick: Holm by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Holm -450


Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Michel Pereira

  • Santiago Ponzinibbio
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 10-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Geoff Neal.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Michel Pereira
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Submitted an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

I’m confident Ponzinibbio has 70 striking. He had it back in 2018 when he triumphed over Neil Magny. He was rusty in his return fight with Li Jingliang. Got knocked out. But the 70 striking was back when he took on Baeza and Geoff Neal. And that Magny win also shows Ponzibbio has the cardio to go toe to toe with another guy with great cardio in Pereira. Ponzinibbio should also have the better wrestling. Could try and wear on Pereira. Keep him in one place. I really like how Pereira’s development has been going. He’s starting to become an elite fighter. But I see slight edges for Ponzinibbio that will be the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ponzinibbio -150


Dusko Todorovic vs Chidi Njokuani

  • Dusko Todorovic
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 11-2
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Maki Pitolo, Michel Pereira, and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Chidi Njokuani
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 21-7
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Todorovic’s last last with Pitolo turned out to be really interesting. Going into the fight, I had Pitolo with better wrestling and that Todorovic should be the favorite by maybe -250. And the betting public thought it was an even closer fight with the line closing at -170. But it turned out Todorovic was big time improved in his wrestling. And maybe Pitolo’s wrestling was a bit over rated. That could’ve been a factor too. Either way, I now have Todorovic with 65 wrestling. As for Njokuani, it’s tough to grade him. Not much to take away from a 16 second knockout. Those happen sometimes. I think Todorovic wins here because of his wrestling, but it’s not my most confident pick because I haven’t seen Njokuani wrestle much against top competition.

Chris’ Pick: Todorovic by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Todorovic -200


Eryk Anders vs Jun Yong Park

  • Eryk Anders
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 6-5 at 185 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou. 
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Darren Stewart and Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert. 
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Jun Yong Park
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 13-5
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler. 
  • Key Wins: Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

Park really didn’t look good in the 1st round of his last fight. Got taken down, was controlled, wasn’t able to get back up, was out struck. But the 2nd round, he blitzed, striking was close to even. Park got taken down, got back up. But the problem with that strategy is Gregory Rodrigues has way more power. I don’t think Park would’ve been able to keep up that pace the rest of the fight, so I’m going to keep his grades the same. Anders offers a similar challenge. I have him graded with slightly better wrestling and striking. But the difference is that Anders isn’t the KO threat Rodrigues is. Even still, I see Anders out pointing Park for the win.

Chris’ Pick: Anders by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Anders -275


Polyana Viana vs Tabatha Ricci

  • Polyana Viana
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 12-4
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Veronica Macedo. Split decision loss to Hannah Cifers.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas back in 2015. Submitted Mallory Martin and Emily Whitmire.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: a little above (55)
  • Tabatha Ricci
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Beat a 12-4 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Really close fight. Ricci showed who she really is at her natural weight class in her last fight. Showed her wrestling is a legit 60. I did have some concerns about her stand up though as she was out landed 61 to 29 in the fight. I have her striking graded a 55 for now, but it could be a 50. Viana is a tough one to grade because her last three fights have been very short. The lonest one went 3 minutes 18 seconds. So we’re working with a small sample. Last time Viana fought in the 2nd round was March of 2019, that’s over 3 years ago. So her striking could be better than a 55, but there’s just no way of knowing for sure. And is her grappling really a 55? She’s been taken down in her last 2 fights and got 1st round arm bar submissions, which looks great, but her third last fight Veronica Macedo, it was Viana that got submitted by armbar. And it’s also possible Ricci’s wrestling could be a 65. So I’m all over the place here. But the reason I’m picking Ricci is that she’s a grinder and she’ll have no problem wrestling all fight if she needs to, to win. That’s ultimately how she beat Maria Oliveira.

Chris’ Pick: Ricci by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ricci -125


Jailton Almeida vs Parker Porter

  • Jailton Almeida
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 15-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Danilo Marques. Submitted a 9-0 wrestler and a 19-4 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Parker Porter
  • Age: 36
  • Pro Record: 11-6
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 12-5 striker.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

Based on Porter’s last fight with Alan Baudot, I’m finally convinced his striking is indeed a 60. Baudot out landed him. And there’s zero chance Baudot has 70 striking. But this fight is interesting because a potential title contender type prospect in Almeida is taking this fight on short notice and fighting up a weight class. And not just up any weight class, but up at the most difficult class to go up in, which is heavyweight. 205 lb limit to 265 lb limit. But even still, I see Almeida’s edge in grappling and also his power advantage making the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Almeida by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Almeida -175


Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski

  • Joseph Holmes
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Holmes has striking that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Alen Amedovski
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by John Phillips.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, another well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Amedovski has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I really like Holmes as a prospect. My problem though in his last fight is that I liked him a bit too much. Thought his striking was a 60. But Jamie Pickett and his 55 striking proved that Holmes striking tool is a 55 for now as their striking was close to equal. But the main reason this is such an interesting fight is Amedovski. This guy hasn’t fought in almost 3 years. He lost his UFC debut to Krzysztof Jotko. No shame there. Amedovski lost because Jotko was able to take him down and control him. But when they were on the feet, Jotko out struck him 8 to 3. Then in Amedovski’s next fight, he takes on John Phillips and gets knocked out in 17 seconds. So there’s not a lot of data to go off on, but Amedovski came into the UFC with some hype. Makes me decently sure I’m grading his striking accurately, but then there’s the other factor that Amedovski has been booked to fight a few times since then and has had to pull out in all of them. Is he having a hard time staying healthy? Who knows. But I think Amedovski is most likely to win.

Chris’ Pick: Amedovski by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Amedovski -150


Uros Medic vs Omar Morales

  • Uros Medic
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Aalon Cruz and a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: average (50)
  • Omar Morales
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Beat Shane Young and Gabriel Benitez.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: average (50)

When Medic fought Jalin Turner, the line closed with both at pick em odds. Some books even had Medic a -125 favorite. That means that the market was predicting it to be a coin flip, stand up fight. What they didn’t factor in though was the wrestling advantage Turner would have. And he took Medic down. But Turner also showed better striking, out landing him 16 to 6. Medic was a mystery going into that fight. His other two UFC fights both had gone about two minutes each. Thus, I’m a lot more sure that I have his grades right. And he’ll have a big power advantage over Morales. That’s the difference in this fight.

Chris’ Pick: Medic by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Medic -150


Jonathan Martinez vs Vince Morales

  • Jonathan Martinez
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 15-3
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Alejandro Perez, Thomas Almeida, and Zviad Lavishvili.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Vince Morales
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 3-4
  • Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

I was very confident Smolka would easily submit Morales last time out. I thought Smolka has 65 grappling, should’ve been a -400 favorite. But the oddsmakers and people betting thought Smolka’s grappling was more of a 60 with Morales having 55 wrestling. Thus justifying the line closing with Smolka around -150. Well, Smolka was being patient. Didn’t go for the take down immediately, and got knocked out 2 minutes into the fight. So okay, I need to upgrade Morales’ striking to a 60. I’ll do that. And I initially thought Morales only had 50 wrestling. He fought Drako Rodriguez who has 55 grappling and Rodriguez got the better of it. But maybe Rodriguez’s grappling is a 60. But zero chance it’s a 65. Which means, okay, I’ll give him 55 wrestling. But how confident am I that Wood has 70 striking? Well, I went to pain staking lengths to make sure his last opponent, Casey Kenney, has 70 striking. And the best evidence I found was that I know Dominick Cruz has 70 striking. Cruz last fought Pedro Munhoz, who I know has 65 striking. And Cruz out landed Munhoz. Cruz fought Kenney and the striking was close to even. I looked at even more data to confirm it, but I won’t bore you with it haha. So I think I have Morales graded properly now. But it’s still going to be really tough to pick this fight because I have both graded almost close to equal. I think the difference maker will be Martinez mixing in some take downs just like Rodriguez did to eke out a close split decision.

Chris’ Pick: Martinez by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Martinez -125


Chase Hooper vs Felipe Colares

  • Chase Hooper
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 10-2-1
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
  • Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Teymur. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Felipe Colares
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Guttierez.
  • Key Wins: Beat Luke Sanders. Split decision over Domingo Pilarte.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

In my opinion, this is the type of opponent Hooper should be getting matched up with this early in his career. I think the UFC has been rushing him a bit. That said, Hooper made huge improvements in his striking in his last fight with Steven Peterson. The striking with Peterson was close to equal and I’ve now graded it a 60. The problem though is his power is a 40. It was no threat to Peterson at all. And matching him up with Colares, I think the UFC wants to see him try and win the fight with his striking. Because that’s the obvious path to win here. I know that Colares striking is only a 50 based on his last fight with 60 striker Chris Guttierez. Guttierez out struck him by close to a 2 to 1 clip. I like Hooper here, he’s going to grow into his body more, strength should start to come in the next couple years.

Chris’ Pick: Hooper by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Hooper -325


Sam Hughes vs Elise Reed

  • Sam Hughes
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 6-4
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Majority decision over Istela Nunes.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Elise Reed
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

I had Istela Nunes going in with 65 striking. Hughes with 55 striking. Nunes went hard the 1st round, but the last 2 rounds were close to equal. Maybe I had Nunes’ striking a bit too high, maybe it’s more like a 60, but I have to give Hughes credit because I think she also improved her striking to a 60 as well. And I’m not sure why Reed was such a big underdog going in to her McKenna fight. Fight played out exactly how I thought it would. Total coin flip fight here though. Reed has better wrestling, more power. But Hughes has better striking and cardio. Based on Reed slowing down in the McKenna fight, I don’t think she’ll have the cardio to try and wrestle Hughes all fight. And there’s not many knockouts at 115 lbs, so Hughes should have a slight edge to win here.

Chris’ Pick: Hughes by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Hughes -125

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