Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka
- Glover Teixeira
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 15-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Ryan Bader and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Jan Blachowicz, Ovince St. Preux, and Ion Cutelaba. Split decision over Nikita Krylov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Jiri Prochazka
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 28-3-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Volkan Oezdemir, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This is a tough fight to pick as we just haven’t seen that much of Prochazka in the UFC. And obviously, this fight will hinge on how good Prochazka’s grappling is. But what have we seen from Prochazka so far? Oezdemir really didn’t try to grapple him. Reyes took Prochazka down and instead of using technique to get up, he used pure power. Prochazka also got caught in a guillotine choke, which he got out of. It’s possible Prochazka’s wrestling could be a 70, but I have it as a 65 for now. And I have to finally give Teixeira his due. Maybe Blachowicz had an off night. Hard to explain why Blachowicz was taken down and controlled so easy. But look at Teixeira’s last fight before that. Thiago Santos. Same thing happened. Teixeira took him down and controlled him easy. What happened before that? Anthony Smith. Teixeira weathered the first round blitz, took Smith down and it was all downhill from there. This isn’t a small sample. This is 3 fights in a row with top #5 guys. So I’ve upgraded Teixeira’s grappling to a 75. And I really like him in this fight. I mean, what are the odds that Prochazka has 70 wrestling in just his 3rd UFC fight? Not likely. And even if it was a 70, Teixeira is still going to get some take downs. And how is Prochazka on the ground? He left his neck out against Reyes and got away with it. Wouldn’t likely get away with it with Teixeira. Look, it’s not my most confident pick ever because I just haven’t see enough of Prochazka. But I don’t think Prochazka has ever fought a grappler on the level Teixeira is on. And Teixeira is the underdog again? Come on haha. Teixeira at +160? Yes please.
Chris’ Pick: Teixeira by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Teixeira -150
Valentina Shevchenko vs Taila Santos
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-0 at 125 lbs. 11-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lauren Murphy, Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Talia Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-1
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mara Borella Romero.
- Key Wins: Submitted Joanne Wood. Beat Roxanne Modafferi, Gillian Robertson, Molly McCann, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
I must confess, that I was a little nonchalant about grading Shevchenko’s striking an 80 in her last fight. She’s just been so dominant. And she was dominant in her last fight with Lauren Murphy. She out struck Murphy 72 to 11. But was that type of dominance an outlier? I’ve thought for a couple years now that Santos would have a legit chance of beating Shevchenko and decided to do a deep dive on Shevchenko’s numbers in her last 4 fights. Really not much striking in the Andrade fight. Just Shevchenko taking Andrade down and dominating on the ground. 75 wrestling for sure. Ok, her two fights before that, vs Chookagian and Maia. Seeing both of them so much, I know for sure Chookagian has 70 striking and Maia 65 striking. Well, it turns out the Chookagian fight was much closer than I remember. It was close on the feet. Shevchenko won because she took Chookagian down. But on the feet, Shevchenko only out struck Chookagian 23 to 17. That’s pretty close. And then the Maia fight, the first half was them grappling back and forth. Then the second half was more of a stand up battle. And Shevchenko did land more, but it wasn’t a blow out. It was less than a 2 to 1 clip. So despite how dominant Shevchenko has been, the numbers say she only has 70 striking, assuming the Murphy fight is an aberration. Which I think it is because Murphy fought like she was just happy to be there. Santos will actually be Shevchenko’s toughest fight since Amanda Nunes. Tougher than Andrade, who’s best weight class is 115 lbs. Santos last showed off her wrestling with Modafferi. And I know Modafferi had 65 wrestling. She proved it in her Maycee Barber fight. Well, Santos dominated Modafferi. Took Modafferi down repeatedly and was able to control her most of the fight. Enough for me to give her wrestling a 75 grade. Her last fight with Wood showed where her striking is at and it was close to equal. Santos choked Wood out, but she won because she had way more power. Knocked Wood down, then sunk the choke in. On paper, I have both fighters almost graded equal, the one exception is that Shevchenko also has 70 grappling whereas Santos is more of a wrestler. I think Shevchenko should be a -150 favorite due to her experience and how she can intimidate opponents. But this is yet another championship fight where the oddsmakers have lost their minds. Or are anticipated the betting public losing their minds steaming up Shevchenko. Just like with Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan. Just like Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns, this is close to a pick em fight. But betting the Santos side pays out +525. How could I possibly turn that down? I also think with how Santos is still developing, she’s more likely to show up improved as well. I genuinely think Santos has a bit more power, will do more damage and that’ll be enough to win.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Shevchenko -150
Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
- Zhang Weili
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rose Namajunas.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Joanna Jedrzejczyk
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Zhang Weili.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carla Esparza. Beat Tecia Torres, Michelle Waterson, and Jessica Andrade.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
There’s a trend going on in the sport where judges are rewarding damage too much. It’s like if one fighter lands some damaging power shots, the rest of the round doesn’t matter. We saw Rob Font out land Marlon Vera by a good amount, but Vera winning the decision. And we just saw Holly Holm out strike Ketlen Vieira 76 to 49. We saw Holm have an advantage in octagon control by 10 minutes to 1 minute. And yet, the judges gave the fight to Vieira because Vieira’s punches had the appearance of doing more damage. The reason I bring this up is to illustrate why Zhang is a decently safe pick here. Yes, the first fight between Zhang and Joanna was close. And Joanna even out struck Zhang 171 to 158. But the power advantage for Zhang is stark. It stands out. And especially in this environment where judges put so much weight on damage, I don’t really see a path for Joanna to win here, unless she lands tons more.
Chris’ Pick: Zhang by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zhang -175
Jake Matthews vs Andre Fialho
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Beat Jingliang Li.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Andre Fialho
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miguel Baeza, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Matthews reminds me a lot of Charles Oliveira in a way. You know, before Oliveira became champion. Matthews has been in the UFC since 2014, which means he made his UFC debut at 19 years old. He’s had 14 UFC fights and he’s still only 27 years old. My point is he’s probably still developing. But in the past few years, he’s only lost when he’s been out grappled. So that makes this fight interesting. Fialho has been showing signs of being a possible contender. Big time power. But where is his wrestling really at? I think Matthews could win, probably will get some take downs. But I’m going to pick Fialho because I think his power is real. But if there’s no KO, it could be very, very close on the judges score cards.
Chris’ Pick: Fialho by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fialho -135
Jack Della Maddalena vs Ramazan Emeev
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ramazan Emeev
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Danny Roberts.
- Key Wins: Beat Sam Alvey. Split decision over David Zawada.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I knew Della Maddalena was pretty good going into The Contender, but he turned out to be even better. And same thing happened with his Rodriguez fight. He performed beyond expectations. The 60 wrestling grade has a tad bit of projection baked in, just because I haven’t seen him wrestle high level guys. But I saw him grapple outside the UFC and looked good. Emeev came into the UFC looking like a contender, but developmentally, I think he’s peaked a bit. I previously had thought his wrestling was a 65, but after not being able to show any wrestling advantages with Danny Roberts, I’m convinced it’s a 60. I really don’t think he’ll be able to get Della Maddalena down. Which means most of this fight should be on the feet where Della Maddalena will have a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Della Maddalena -275
Seung Woo Choi vs Josh Culibao
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Beat Youssef Zalal and an 8-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Josh Culibao
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1-1
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Charles Jourdain to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 striker and beat a 5-0-1 striker by split decision.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Choi’s 3-3 UFC record doesn’t reflect how good of a prospect he is. He lost to Alex Caceres, but striking was close to equal, arguably Choi landed with more power. But Choi was taken down, got caught in a choke and it was over. As far as the striking being equal, I think that had more to do with Caceres improving his striking to a 65 vs Choi’s striking not being as good as we think it is. Culibao is coming off a fight with Nuerdanbieke Shayilan proving that his wrestling is still a 55 as Nuerdanbieke was able to edge him out there. Got a couple take downs. 6 minutes of control in the fight. I have both guys’ striking and wrestling graded equally but the one difference is Culiboa’s power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Culibao by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Culibao -150
Steve Garcia vs Maheshate Hayisaer
- Steve Garcia
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Maheshate Hayisaer
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Maheshate is still a mystery to me. His opponent on The Contender, Achilles Estremadura, was a huge favorite. Video on Maheshate didn’t exist. And Estremadura did what was expected of him in the 1st round. Out struck Maheshate by over a 2 to 1 clip. But then in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the Estremadura slowed down and Maheshate was now edging him out in the striking. It was close but Maheshate was getting the better of it. So did Estremadura have an adrenaline dump in the 1st round? Or is it that Maheshate has better cardio and Estremadura couldn’t handle the pace? Hard to say. But the question that will really be answered in this fight is where is Maheshate’s wrestling at. Because Garcia will test it. Garcia’s wrestling is for sure at least a 55, could be a 60. Estremadura did try to grapple with Maheshate and didn’t get too far. It could come down to who has the better cardio and Maheshate has already shown he has that.
Chris’ Pick: Maheshate by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Maheshate -125
Brendan Allen vs Jacob Malkoun
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Punahele Soriano and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jacob Malkoun
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat AJ Dobson and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Not much was known about AJ Dobson. He came into his second UFC fight against Malkoun with a 6-0 record. Looked good on The Contender. But how good? Well, I had Dobson’s wrestling as a 55 but to my shock, the line closed at a pick em. So either one side is really wrong on Dobson. Or the betting public saw Malkoun’s wrestling as maybe a 60. I think it’s more of the latter. Not too many prospects already have 65 tools in their first 1 or 2 UFC fights. So the most likely scenario is that I was right, Dobson’s wrestling was a 55 and Malkoun’s wrestling was the 65 I thought it was. Because Malkoun dominated the fight with his wrestling. And I was confident in my grades of Allen right until I saw the numbers for his Sam Alvey fight. And yeah, Allen got the submission win in the 2nd round. Looks tidy on the surface. But shockingly, the striking numbers were close. I had Alvey with 55 striking going in. Maybe he showed up in better shape or improved striking to where it was a 60 instead. Maybe if the fight had gone longer, there’d be a bigger gap in the numbers. But I can’t downgrade Allen’s striking. He’s got too much track record. All that said, it’s possible Malkoun’s wrestling could be a 70, but most likely it’s a 65. Which means this would be a stand up fight and Allen should be better there. Malkoun isn’t a threat to knock Allen out. I like Allen.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Allen -200
Kyung Ho Kang vs Batgerel Danaa
- Kyung Ho Kang
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Split decision over Pingyuan Liu.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Batgerel Danaa
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brandon Davis and Kevin Natividad. Submitted an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I was really confident in Batgerel knocking out Chris Guttierez. But it turns out Guttierez came into the fight improved and we learned two things coming out. Guttierez’s striking is really close to a 65 now. And Batgerel’s striking is probably a 60 instead of a 65. Guttierez did out land Batgerel 37 to 24 over the course of the fight. Kang disappointed me too in his last fight with Rani Yahya. To my surprise, Yahya would be able to control Kang on the ground for most of the fight. So I’m downgrading Kang’s wrestling to a 55. Which is important because it makes it very likely Kang won’t be able to take Batgerel down.
Chris’ Pick: Batgerel by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Batgerel -300
Na Liang vs Silvana Juarez
- Na Liang
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Silvana Juarez
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I didn’t really know what to think of Na as a prospect, coming into her UFC debut with Ariane Carnelossi, but wow, did she impress. But it was the UFC’s very first fight back in front of fans from the covid era and Na really had an adrenaline dump in the 1st round. Na was getting the better of the grappling. And even though not many strikes were being thrown, Na did out land Carnelossi 10 to 6. But then Na ran out of gas in the 2nd round and Carnelossi finished her on the ground. Juarez’s UFC fights haven’t lasted long. Each, she’s lost in the 1st round. I see well rounded 55 tools. I think Na is better everywhere and should have better cardio to win on the feet or maybe even get a submission.
Chris’ Pick: Na by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Na -250
Joselyne Edwards vs Ramona Pascual
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Yanan Wu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Ramona Pascual
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Fight could be very similar to Pascual’s UFC debut where she took on Josiane Nunes. I have Nunes and Edwards graded exactly the same. Pascual looked her best in the 1st round. Mixed in a couple take downs. But slowed down in the second half of the fight. Got out struck. But this won’t be the easiest fight for Edwards either as she’s coming off one of the worst losses of her career with Jessica Rose Clark taking her down and controlling her all fight. Probably won’t be easy for her knowing Pascual will want to do the same exact thing.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Edwards -150