Cory Sandhagen vs Yadong Song
- Corey Sandhagen
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average grappling (60)
- Yadong Song
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 8-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes, Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I had considered grading Yadong’s striking a 75. That’s due to his 1st round against Arce. Out struck him 17 to 5. That’s over a 3 to 1 clip. But the 2nd round up to the KO, Yadong had just out struck Arce 10 to 8. And then the 2 minutes we saw of Yadong vs Moraes, Yadong only out landed him 14 to 9. Small samples. Moraes striking is probably a 70 in the 1st round before he gasses out. So I’m grading Yadong’s striking as a 70 grade, although it could be a 75. Will probably eventually be a 75. I felt that Sandhagen was robbed in his fight with Petr Yan. Sandhagen clearly won the first 3 rounds. Sandhagen also out struck Yan 168 to 135 in the fight. I bring this up to reaffirm Sandhagen’s striking is a 75. And it’s pretty darn close to a top of the scale 80 grade. The wrestling in that fight was also equal. I think Yadong has championship upside. But right now, Sandhagen is the more complete fighter, has experience going 5 rounds, will have better cardio. I’m confident Sandhagen gets the W here.
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sandhagen -325
Chidi Njokuani vs Gregory Rodrigues
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 22-7
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Njokuani’s wrestling is indeed a 60. He was taken down and controlled for a bit by 65 wrestler Todorovic. But I can’t deny Njokuani’s striking anymore. It’s absolutely a 65 tool. And the Rodrigues vs 60 striker Marquez fight didn’t last long, but Rodrigues’ striking has clearly gotten better. Rodrigues out landed him 33-13 before getting the KO. But if Rodrigues improved his striking that much, I’m curious on whether his wrestling has gotten better too? If Todorovic was able to get a couple of take downs on Njokuani, look for Rodrigues, who has even better wrestling, to go that route to win the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -150
Andre Fili vs Bill Algeo
- Andre Fili
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision over Charles Jourdain.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns and a 27-8 grappler. Beat Joanderson Brito, Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
My opinion on both guy’s tools haven’t changed since their last fights. Fili’s been so consistent, him getting knocked out in a minute, that happens sometimes. With Algeo, he finished Burns because Burns doesn’t have much cardio and is very aggressive going all in for submissions in the 1st round. Got Algeo in a tight triangle, but Algeo hung in there, and once Algeo escaped, Burns was out of gas. I like Fili’s striking more, Algeo’s not really a threat to knock him out. And Fili is experienced enough to be efficient and not gas out.
Chris’ Pick: Fili by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fili -200
Joe Pyfer vs Alen Amedovski
- Joseph Pyfer
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alen Amedovski
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by John Phillips.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, another well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’m pretty confident in where I’m grading Pyfer. I thought Diaz had 50 striking going into the fight. The market thought the fight was a coin flip pick em type bout. But Pyfer did indeed out strike Diaz. I also have confidence in Pyfer’s tools based on how he did with Dustin Stoltzfus. Amedovski showed a lot of potential in his UFC debut losing a close fight to Krzystof Jotko. But since then, his chin has collapsed, getting knocked out in his last two fights, both within the first minute of the fight. Well, technically, Amedovski lost by submission to Joseph Holmes, but Holmes knocked him down with the strike and then choked him out. And the UFC isn’t doing him any favors by giving him another power puncher in Pyfer.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Pyfer -250
Tanner Boser vs Rodrigo Nascimento
- Tanner Boser
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski. Split decision loss to Ilir Latifi.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux, Raphael Pessoa, and Philipe Lins.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Rodrigo Nascimento
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes and a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Nascimento finally returns for his first fight in over a year. My decent amount of confidence in Nascimento’s tools comes from his fight with Mayes. Because after the Mayes fight, he got knocked out by Chris Daukaus in 45 seconds. Then was getting steamrolled by Alan Baudot, but Baudot gassed out and Nascimento was able to escape with a win (until the fight was later ruled a no contest). It’s hard to figure out what to make of Boser’s last two fights because they came against light heavyweights moving up. But we do know for sure that Boser has 70 striking based on how he landed more shots against 65 striker Arlovski. I expect Boser to be able to stuff Nascimento’s take down attempts and to overwhelm him on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Boser by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Boser -350
Anthony Hernandez vs Marc Andre Barriault
- Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Jordan Wright. Beat Dalcha Lungiambula.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Fremd made his UFC debut against Hernandez. I thought Fremd’s striking was a 50, turned out the strikes were close to equal, but that probably had more to do with Fremd’s striking actually being a 55. And half of Hernandez’s nearly 11 minutes of control time came in the 3rd round where short notice opponent Fremd was out of gas. But gassing out is something that’s not going to happen with Barriault, who’s a real bad matchup for Hernandez. I think as time goes on, Barriault’s power and pace will get harder and harder for Hernandez to deal with.
Chris’ Pick: Barriault by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Barriault -300
Pat Sabatini vs Damon Jackson
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 17-3
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat TJ Laramie, Tucker Lutz, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Knocked out a 12-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
60 wrestler Laramie did okay against Sabatini in the 1st round of their fight, round was close. But Sabatini took over in the 2nd round and it was downhill from there. Taking Laramie down and controlling him for pretty much the rest of the fight. We still haven’t seen Sabatini strike on his feet for that long, but I’m decently sure the tool is a 60. Jackson is for sure going to give Sabatini his toughest test because Jackson has proven to have 65 grappling. Coin flip fight. I think Jackson will land more on the feet, but Sabatini’s cardio is at such a high level, I think he’ll be able to take down Jackson again and again to grind his way to a win.
Chris’ Pick: Sabatini by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sabatini -135
Trevin Giles vs Louis Cosce
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Louis Cosce
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Michael Morales gets a lot of hype, he’s had 2 KO wins in the UFC so far, but I’ve seen no evidence that his striking is better than a 55. I had Adam Fugitt’s striking as a 55, their strikes were close to equal. And the strikes between him and Giles were close to equal too. Giles has hit a plateau for awhile now. 9 fights into his UFC career and his tools haven’t improved at all. Even the data of Giles vs du Plessis shows the same thing. Du Plessis with 65 striking and Giles a 55. Cosce came really close to having a spectacular KO win over Sasha Palatnikov. But Palatnikov proved to be durable. Survived. And Cosce gassed hard going for the finish. And the fact that the striking was equal in the 2nd and 3rd rounds is a testament to Cosce’s striking. He lost because his gas tank hit empty, but I feel comfortable grading his striking a 60. He would’ve out landed against 55 striker Palatnikov had his cardio held up. Cosce hasn’t fought in a year and a half. I expect his cardio to be better. I expect him to take his time. But look, Giles has been knocked out in both of his last two fights. Cosce is not the best type of fighter for Giles to be going against right now.
Chris’ Pick: Cosce by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cosce -225
Loma Lookboonmee vs Denise Gomes
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Beat Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Denise Gomes
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Lookboonmee was really out classed in her last fight, but it was at the hands of Loopy Godinez, so there’s no shame there. I might have been under rating Rayanne Amanda a bit. I had her with well rounded 50 tools. I think that’s what she had, but could be short selling her. Either way, Gomes had a really impressive win over her. 1st round was close on the feet. But Gomes pace and cardio really shined as she took over in the 2nd round, out landing Amanda by a 2 to 1 clip. 60 striking tool for me. And when Amanda went for take down attempts, she got 1 out of 4, but only a minute and a half of control time, so Gomes’ wrestling looks to be a 55. Really close fight here. Gomes takes this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. I have a little more confidence in her winning than most short notice fighters because she has such great cardio. The difference for me is Gomes has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Gomes by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gomes -125
Daniel Zellhuber vs Trey Ogden
- Daniel Zellhuber
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Beat Lucas Almeida and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Trey Ogden
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jordan Leavitt.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Things weren’t looking great for Zellhuber in the Almeida fight in the 1st round. Almeida was blitzing hard. But then he started to gas out and Zellhuber started to take over in the 2nd round. We have more Almeida data to go off of. He fought Michael Trizano who has 60 striking and Almeida landed more shots and his cardio held up over the 3 rounds. So it’s looking like Almeida’s striking is a 65 tool. So it’s possible Zellhuber’s striking could be a 65, but I’m keeping it as a 60 for now. Also possible that Zellhuber has 60 wrestling. He was able to take 55 wrestler Almeida down and control him for a couple minutes, but I’m keeping it as a 55 until I see more. Ogden made his UFC debut on short notice against Jordan Leavitt and had a good showing. Ogden lost a split decision, but striking was close to equal, Leavitt was slightly better in the wrestling, but that was probably due to Ogden not showing up with a full tank of gas. This will be a striker vs grappler fight. Ogden will want no part of Zellhuber’s power. I think this fight will be close until Zellhuber catches him with a power shot.
Chris’ Pick: Zellhuber by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Zellhuber -175
Mariya Agapova vs Gillian Robertson
- Mariya Agapova
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Sabina Mazo and Hannah Cifers. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I wasn’t too surprised with how Agapova was dominated by Maryna Moroz. I mean, I did pick Moroz to win. But what is telling to me is Agapova is young, 25 years old, and I haven’t seen her wrestling develop that much since she lost to Tracy Cortez on the Contender. It was a surprise to everybody how much Aldrich had improved her wrestling. And her improvement is real, not just with Robertson, but her wrestling held up against Erin Blanchfield as well. Most, even myself, will remember how Robertson couldn’t take Aldrich down and Aldrich landed with more power to win the fight. But there’s another bit of news from that fight that got lost in the shuffle and that’s that Robertson improved her striking to a 60. Yes, Aldrich did do more damage, but Aldrich only out struck her 49 to 45. It was close from that aspect. Anyway, this fight is all about Robertson testing whether or not Agapova has improved her wrestling. That’s it. And because I don’t pick fights based off projection or trying to predict if someone shows up improved or not, I have to go with thinking history will repeat itself.
Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Robertson -200
Javid Basharat vs Tony Gravely
- Javid Basharat
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler. Submitted an 11-1 grappler. Beat Trevin Jones
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Tony Gravely
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Munoz, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Beat Saimon Oliveira. Split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I thought Basharat’s striking was a 50 going into his last fight. The market had him as a -150 favorite against Trevin Jones which means they thought the striking tool was a 55 plus maybe thinking Jones had 55 wrestling. Turns out Jones’ wrestling is a 60 and Basharat’s striking is a 55. Striking on the feet was close to equal. Gravely’s knockout over Munoz is great, but not enough data for me to upgrade his tools. Really close fight between these two. I think Gravely has a slight edge in the wrestling, but it wouldn’t surprise me too much if Basharat’s wrestling is a 65. Maybe Gravely’s striking has improved and if he didn’t knock out Munoz, maybe we would’ve seen it. Slight edge to Gravely.
Chris’ Pick: Gravely by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gravely -135
Nick Motta vs Cameron VanCamp
- Nick Motta
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joe Solecki and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Cameron VanCamp
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 15-6
- Key Losses: Lost to a 32-13 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I have to give VanCamp a lot of credit. 15 wins, 9 by submission, I thought he was a grappler. Had his striking as a 50 grade going into his UFC debut with Andre Fialho. And yes, VanCamp got knocked out in less than 3 minutes. But up until that point, VanCamp actually out struck Fialho 19 to 16. So VanCamp is way more well rounded than I thought. I’m upgrading his striking to a 60 and using a bit of projection to upgrade his grappling to a 60, as I don’t think his striking is all of a sudden better than his grappling. Clearly he’s improved, it’s just we didn’t see the grappling in the Fialho fight. Motta has potential, but showed in the Jim Miller fight, his tools are just 55’s. He was out struck by 60 striker Miller. Knocked out. I actually have VanCamp graded exactly the same as Miller. Both are coming off KO losses. I expect the fight on the feet, but both might be a bit gun shy.
Chris’ Pick: VanCamp by decision.
What I think the odds should be: VanCamp -275