Allan Begosso vs Farid Basharat
- Allan Begosso
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Knocked out a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Farid Basharat
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Basharat took on a well rounded 6-4 fighter last time out. No way his opponent had better than 45 striking. And Basharat did out strike him but the performance wasn’t without it’s flaws as Basharat got knocked down in the 1st round. So I’m decently confident in Basharat with 50 striking and likely has 55 grappling. Begosso knocked out a 5-3 grappler in 45 seconds in his last fight so not much data to take from there. The fight before that, Begosso took on a 9-0 wrestler and lost. I thought the opponent has 55 striking and 60 wrestling. Fight on the feet was close, but Begosso lost because he kept getting taken down, showing his wrestling is a 55. Look, I know Basharat is coming in with some hype. His brother Javid already made it to the UFC and is off to a good start. But I know what I saw in Farid’s last fight. I doubt his striking is currently better than a 50. And maybe he shows up improved, but that’s projection and I pick fights based off the skills fighters have right now. And right now Begosso has the better striking and a huge power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Begosso by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Begosso -250
Ikram Aliskerov vs Mario Sousa
- Ikram Aliskerov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Submitted Dennis Tiuliulin and an 11-3 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Mario Sousa
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat an 8-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Sousa got out classed by Chidi Njokuani on The Contender. But it turns out Njokuani is really good and has 65 striking and 60 wrestling. When they were trading strikes, Sousa did okay, showing 60 striking. He was taken down, but was able to get back up. And I just watched Tiuliulin fight, he knocked out Jamie Pickett. Wanna know who else Tiuliulin has fought lately? Aliskerov. So I know Tiuliulin has well rounded 55 tools. But it doesn’t matter to Aliskerov who take Tiuliulin down over and over again, shows 65 wrestling, controls him most of the fight until he gets a kiumra submission in the 3rd round. Aliskerov’s only career loss? Khamzat Chimaev. So Aliskerov has seen UFC caliber fighters even before this Contender fight. I’m confident in Aliskerov winning this fight. If Njokuani could take Sousa down, I’d imagine Aliskerov will be able to do it too.
Chris’ Pick: Aliskerov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Aliskerov -250
Malik Lewis vs Trevor Peek
- Malik Lewis
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 15-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Trevor Peek
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Lewis went against a well rounded 15-3 fighter that I think has 55 tools. Lewis decided to grapple with the opponent most of the fight, in the clinch, mixing in some take downs. Until the opponent was caught in a triangle and tapped out. Lewis showed his grappling to be a 60 tool. Turns out Peek has wrestling. Looking at his record, you might think he’s a one dimensional striker. I watched the longest fight of Peek’s career, happened last year, Peek ended it in the 3rd round. The rest of Peek’s 5 wins were all 1st round knockouts. Peek took on a 11-5 grappler who I thought had 50 striking and 50 grappling. Peek’s opponent did okay in the 1st round with the wrestling. But he started to fade in the 2nd round. Didn’t have the cardio to keep up. Peek got him down in the 3rd, started the ground and pound and it was over. Peek was getting the better of the stand up, but there’s no way his opponent’s striking is better than a 50. It’s possible Peek’s striking could be a 55, but that recent knockout win over Worthy will make the tool a 60 for me, for now. I think Peek will have the wrestling to stuff Lewis’ take down attempts and will win the fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Peek by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Peek -200
Bruna Brasil vs Marnic Mann
- Bruna Brasil
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 2-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Marnic Mann
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Brasil’s last fight was against a 5-0 grappler who I think has 50 striking and 55 grappling. Grappling was back and forth. Brazil cruised on the feet, it’s possible her striking is a 60. One of Mann’s last fights that I watched was against a well rounded 4-1 fighter, who I think has 55 tools. Fight was entertaining, back and forth. When they exchanges strikes, it was about equal. But mostly the fight was on the ground. And it went back and forth until Mann took the back in the 3rd and locked in a triangle. I think both these fighters are close to equal, but I see Mann with an edge in power that should get her a close win.
Chris’ Pick: Mann by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mann -135
Brandon Lewis vs Daniel Marcos
- Brandon Lewis
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Daniel Marcos
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Lewis has fought on the Contender before. Took on a 5-0 wrestler by the name of Mo Miller. I had Miller with 55 striking and 60 wrestling. The book makers agreed with me as they opened Miller a -275 favorite. But then the money poured in on the Miller side and that made Miller’s price balloon all the way up to -700. Because of the wrestling more than likely. And sure enough, the fight wasn’t close. Miller dominated with the wrestling. But the striking was close to equal, so I’m upgrading Lewis’ striking tool to a 55. There’s not too much footage of Marcos out there. But I was able to watch his second to last fight with a 5-4 striker who I thought had 45 striking and 40 wrestling. I thought Marcos had 55 wrestling and that he’d use it to dominate. But the Marcos got a bit more pushback in the wrestling than I thought. Maybe his opponent had 45 wrestling. So I’ve downgraded Marcos wrestling to a 50, but Marcos was out classing his opponent in the stand up. Total coin flip fight here. Marcos has the prettier record. Lewis has experience being on the Contender before. I have both graded identical, so I have to project a bit to win here and I’ll say it’s more likely Marcos is better than I think than Lewis.
Chris’ Pick: Marcos by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Marcos -125