Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jailton Almeida
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Abdurakhimov and Danilo Marques. Submitted Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
If you want to see the difference between 75 grappling and 70 grappling, watch Curtis Blaydes vs Abdurakhimov. And Blaydes finished the fight via ground and pound, in the mount. But he had to work to get there. He didn’t get a dominant position until the end. But then if you watch Almeida vs Abdurakhimov, it’s all one way traffic. Zero resistance from Abdurakhimov. It reminded me of some of Khabib’s fights back in the day with mid tier competition. This is going to be another mismatch here. I have Abdurakhimov with 60 wrestling and I think Rozenstruik’s wrestling is on the same tier. And even if he improves, at best, he comes in with 65 wrestling. That won’t get it done. Almeida will dominate here again. Won’t be close.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -700
Anthony Smith vs Johnny Walker
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4 at 205 lbs. 9-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Walker has always had big time power, but it’s his improved 70 wrestling that’s made him a legit title contender. And what’s crazy is it wouldn’t surprise me if Walker took Smith down a couple times a la Glover Teixeira. So I’m picking Walker because of the wrestling edge but also because his striking is creeping towards a 75 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Walker -135
Ian Machado Garry vs Daniel Rodriguez
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Daniel Rodriguez
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker. Split decision over Jingliang Li
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I had Rodriguez’s wrestling a 65 going into the Magny fight. But Magny was able to take him down a few times. Had a bit on control on the ground, got the choke in the 3rd round. So I have no choice but to downgrade the wrestling to a 60 grade. Coin flip fight. Maybe Garry elevates his striking to a 70. But I’m questioning Garry’s chin, he was badly hurt and almost stopped in his last fight by Kenan Song. I think Rodriguez has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -125
Carlos Ulberg vs Ihor Potieria
- Carlos Ulberg
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nicolae Negumereanu, Tafon Nchukwi, an 8-2 striker, and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 20-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua and an 8-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I couldn’t believe that Ulberg closed at near even money against Negumereanu. I would’ve priced Ulberg at -250 and the fight wasn’t close. Ulberg out struck him 12 to 2 up until the KO. I also see Potieria as having not much of a chance here as the striking gap is just too wide.
Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ulberg -450
Tim Means vs Alex Morono
- Tim Means
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 12-9 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Max Griffin.
- Key Wins: Beat Nicholas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Alex Morono
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
This one is going to be Means’ power vs Morono’s volume strikes. As long as Morono avoids danger, he should win here.
Chris’ Pick: Morono by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Morono -150
Matt Brown vs Court McGee
- Matt Brown
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 16-13
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Dhiego Lima and Diego Sanchez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Court McGee
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 10-10
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Key Wins: Beat Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
McGee might be 38 years old, but I still believe his wrestling is a 65. And Brown might be 42 years old, but I still think his striking and power are 60’s. And even though Brown might have to deal with getting taken down a couple of times, McGee is coming off a KO loss. I think Brown can make it two in a row.
Chris’ Pick: Brown by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Brown -175
Karl Williams vs Chase Sherman
- Karl Williams
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Lukasz Brzeski, a 4-1 striker, and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-9
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Sherman’s fight with Cortes-Acosta proved once and for all that his striking is a 60. Cortes-Acosta out struck him 142 to 66. Which means he probably has 70 striking, but no way is it a 75. Which means Sherman’s striking is for sure a 60. The thing that was most impressive about Williams’ win over Brzeski is not all the take downs or the big suplex. It was the fact he had the cardio to wrestle all fight. Something not everybody is able to do. It’s possible Williams could do the same thing to Sherman, but the wrinkle is that Williams is taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. And he just fought 3 rounds about a month ago. But Williams wrestling to me is the best tool in this fight. I see Williams utilizing the same game plan he had with Brzeski.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by decision
What I think the odds should be: Williams -250
Cody Stamann vs Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Luan Lacerda, Alejandro Perez, and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Sergey Morozov. Beat Marlon Vera.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Said Nurmagomedov closed as a massive -450 favorite against Silva de Andrade. And I don’t know why. Maybe the market thought Nurmagomedov has 70 striking, but in any case, the fight turned out to be much closer as I predicted. Striking was close to equal. I’ve seen a lot of Stamann fights. His striking has plateaued at a 60. It hasn’t progressed passed that point. I see Silva de Andrade as the better striker.
Chris’ Pick: Silva de Andrade by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva de Andrade -225
Pete Rodriguez vs Natan Levy
- Pete Rodriguez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Natan Levy
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Beat Genaro Valdez. Majority decision over a 5-3 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I can’t deny Levy anymore. He’s definitely leveled up. Was able to take Valdez down multiple times and out struck him. Rodriguez has potential, but he hasn’t showed the wrestling yet. Levy should cruise here.
Chris’ Pick: Levy by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Levy -450
Ji Yeon Kim vs Mandy Bohm
- Ji Yeon Kim
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Joselyne Edwards.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nadia Kassem. Split decision over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Mandy Bohm
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Very straight forward fight. I see Kim being a little better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Kim by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kim -275
Bryan Battle vs Gabe Green
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Takashi Sato. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Gabe Green
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yohan Lainesse, a 7-0 striker, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Philip Rowe.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Green did better than I thought he would against Ian Machado Garry. Green’s wrestling turned out to be a 60. And his cardio and volume is pushing his striking to be close to a 65, but not quite. Battle was dominated on the ground by Rinat Fakheretdinov, but that’s no knock on Battle. Fakheretdinov is a really good prospect. Should be a close fight but I see Green edging it out with better cardio, mixing in some take downs, and probably landing a few more shots.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Green -150
Jessica Rose Clark vs Tainara Lisboa
- Jessica-Rose Clark
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-2 at 125 lbs. 4-4 overall
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sarah Alpar. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Paige VanZant.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Tainara Lisboa
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 5-2
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Clark is coming off two 1st round arm bar submission losses in a row. But fortunately for her, I don’t think Lisboa has the grappling skill that Julija Stoliarenko and Stephanie Egger have. Lisboa has 60 grappling at best. Clark should be able to get some take downs and the cardio to rinse and repeat. But if she starts to gas out, the strikes on the feet could be close.
Chris’ Pick: Clark by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Clark -175