Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko
- Alexa Grasso
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-0 at 125 lbs. 8-3 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Felice Herrig. Majority decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Valentina Shevchenko and Joanne Wood. Beat Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber, Ji Yeon Kim, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Ranka Markos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-1 at 125 lbs. 12-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lauren Murphy, Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia. Split decision over Taila Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
For awhile, I thought Viviane Araujo had 75 wrestling. She was able to take Andrea Lee down and control her. Case closed. But as time has gone on, it appears Lee was just off that night and Araujo’s wrestling tool is actually a 70 grade. Which makes sense because Shevchenko was able to take Grasso down and control her for a bit, so Grasso’s grappling then would be a 70, not a 75. And after watching the first half of the first Shevchenko vs Grasso fight, I was tempted to say Shevchenko’s wrestling elevated to a 75 with how she took Grasso down. But the real story of that fight is that Shevchenko got tired in the 4th round. Her take downs became more labored. She’s not used to wrestling for that long in a title fight. So her wrestling is still a 70 for me. And although Shevchenko out struck Grasso 80 to 56, I’ve seen too much of Shevchenko, especially lately, to move her striking off a 70. I thought Shevchenko should’ve been the favorite the last time and think Shevchenko should be the favorite in the rematch too. But Grasso is a live underdog as I still think her grappling could be a 75 and clearly Grasso’s cardio is better.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Shevchenko -175
Kevin Holland vs Jack Della Maddalena
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 170 lbs. 12-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I was amazed that Chiesa couldn’t take Holland down. 0 for 5 on take down attempts. Either Holland improved his wrestling or Chiesa regressed. Seems more likely Chiesa is near retirement and regressing. We’ve seen enough of Della Maddalena to know that even though he barely eked out a win over Bassil Hafez, that had more to do with Hafez being better than we thought. And maybe Della Maddalena not taking him seriously going into it. Coin flip fight, but I think Holland comes in with more confident, longer reach.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Holland -135
Raul Rosas Jr vs Terrence Mitchell
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 18
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jay Perrin. Beat a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Terrence Mitchell
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Rosas Jr showed no respect for Christian Rodriguez and paid the price. Thought he’d be able to blitz Rodriguez and submit him quick, like he usually does with all his opponents. But Rodriguez showed improved 65 grappling, was able to survive. And took over after Rosas Jr ran out of gas. Unless, Rosas Jr’s grappling is closer to a 65 grade, which is possible. I think Rosas Jr learns from the last loss. Takes his time more. Gets the job done against Mitchell.
Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Rosas Jr -200
Daniel Zellhuber vs Christos Giagos
- Daniel Zellhuber
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Beat Lando Vannata, Lucas Almeida, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Christos Giagos
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Glenn. Beat Damir Hadzovic and a 10-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Could be a close fight on the feet, but I’ve seen Giagos finished quickly in 2 of his last 3 fights. He’s not durable. And I expect Zellhuber’s striking to keep improving.
Chris’ Pick: Zellhuber by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Zellhuber -175
Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson
- Fernando Padilla
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 15-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to Spike Carlyle.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Erosa. Submitted Darrick Minner. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Doo Ho Choi to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and Marco Polo Reyes. Beat Blake Bilder.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
It’s tough to grade Padilla. He was a +125 underdog going into the Julian Erosa fight. It only lasted 2 minutes. Erosa’s chin has proved not to be durable. I had Padilla with 55 striking going in. And as long as the fight lasted, striking was close to equal. So maybe Padilla’s striking is a 65. He hasn’t fought in 2 years before the Erosa fight. Maybe he got a lot better in the absence. But I think a 60 striking grade is more plausible for now. Coin flip fight. But I’m picking Padilla because it’s more likely his striking is a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Padilla by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Padilla -135
Loopy Godinez vs Elise Reed
- Loopy Godinez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 115 lbs. 5-2 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Beat Emily Ducote, Ariane Carnelossi, and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision over Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Elise Reed
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Melissa Martinez. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Bit of a mismatch here as I don’t see Reed being able to stop Godinez’s take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Godinez -450
Roman Kopylov vs Josh Fremd
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Josh Fremd
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Sedriques Dumas and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat Jamie Pickett. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The numbers say the Kopylov vs Ribeiro fight was close on the feet up until Ribeiro got knocked out. But I think that had to do more with Ribeiro blitzing. I don’t think he would’ve been able to keep up that pace for 15 minutes. And because of the numbers Kopylov put up against Soriano, I’m keeping his striking at a 70 for now.
Chris’ Pick: Kopylov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kopylov -350
Edgar Chairez vs Daniel Lacerda
- Edgar Chairez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Daniel Lacerda
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Tatsuro Tairo closed as a -700 favorite over Chairez, so despite Chairez losing, I think he out performed the price by knocking Taira down in the 1st round and the striking exchanges being close to equal. But he lost due to only having 60 grappling. Shouldn’t be a problem here with the ultra aggressive Lacerda who’s made a habit of emptying the gas tank in the 1st round. Chairez should be durable enough to survive the 1st and then take over in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Chairez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Chairez -200
Tracy Cortez vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Tracy Cortez
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Beat Melissa Gatto, Mariya Agapova, and Stephanie Egger. Split decision wins over Justin Kish and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Maverick, Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Cortez did prove she has 70 wrestling. Taking on 65 grappler Gatto, Cortez was able to get take downs and although part of that had to do with Gatto being content working her jiu jitsu off her back, you still have to credit Cortez for staying in the dominant positions while grappling. This difference led to her winning the fight. So she improved her wrestling even more, but I didn’t see any evidence her striking got better. I had both with 60 grade striking going in. And it was close to equal, although Gatto did land slightly more due to a big 2nd round. It’s possible Gatto’s striking is a 65 and therefore Cortez’s striking a 65, but I doubt it. I’m more confident Jasudavicius leveled up her striking to a 65 grade in her fight with Maverick, so that’s going to be my pick.
Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jasudavicius -200
Charlie Campbell vs Alex Reyes
- Charlie Campbell
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker and a well rounded 3-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Alex Reyes
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 13-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 14-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Reyes is extremely hard to project. This is his first pro fight in almost 6 years. And it’s been about 8 years since he’s fought for more than 2 minutes. That’s right. Reyes’ last 3 fights ended in less than 2 minutes. I watched his last fight that went past the 2 minute mark back in 2015 and he showed 55 striking and 50 wrestling. Usually, you could say someone coming off a long layoff, they’re expected to show up improved. But Reyes is a unique case where he’s over come a potentially career threatening injury. Levy is very likely to get take downs and I think it’ll eventually lead to a finish. Campbell was very close to finishing Chris Duncan on the Contender, but got too aggressive going for the finish, left himself open, got knocked out. It’s possible Reyes shows up improved, but he’s 36 years old and has had to deal with all the injuries.
Chris’ Pick: Campbell by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Campbell -200
Marnic Mann vs Josefine Knutsson
- Marnic Mann
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Josefine Knutsson
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-1 striker, a 3-0-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Split decision over a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Bruna Brasil has looked good in the UFC so far. Well, Mann didn’t look that bad either, against Brasil on the Contender, until she got kicked in the head. Very possible Mann’s striking is a 60. So even though she’s taking the fight on short notice, so is Knutsson who was originally supposed to face Iasmin Lucindo.
Chris’ Pick: Mann by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mann -175