Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira
- Jiri Prochazka
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 29-3-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Volkan Oezdemir, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Submitted Glover Teixeira. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 205 lbs. 5-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva. Split decision over Jan Blachowicz.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Once and finally for all, I’m convinced Blachowicz has 70 striking and 70 wrestling. The wrestling was close to a 65 in the Magomed Ankalaev fight, but there’s no way Pereira’s wrestling is worse than a 65. Pereira’s 75 striking grade at middleweight carried over to light heavyweight and same with his wrestling. Market closed with Prochazka as a -200 favorite over Teixeira, thought Prochazka’s striking would be the difference, that he’d be able to stuff take downs. But he wasn’t able to do the latter, was taken down repeatedly. I think this is a pure stand up fight and Pereira should get it done.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pereira -225
Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Marcin Tybura, Serghei Spivac, Jake Collier, and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Curtis Blaydes and Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Maurice Greene.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Here’s a crazy stat. Pavlovich is 7 fights into his UFC career, every single one of them have ended in the 1st round. The only time we’ve really seen Pavlovich wrestle was his UFC debut with Alistair Overeem back in 2018. Overeem took Pavlovich down and finished it with ground and pound. I had Pavlovich’s wrestling a 60 back then. Now fast forward to Pavlovich’s last fight. Market closed with Blaydes as a -150 favorite. Meaning the market thought Pavlovich’s wrestling was a 65, that Blaydes would probably have some success with take downs. But instead, Blaydes decided to strike with him and by the time Blaydes tried to use the wrestling, he was too hurt to get anywhere. It’s possible ATT has helped elevate Pavlovich’s wrestling to a 70, but I’m leaving it as a 65 for now. I’m also leaving open the possibility that Pavlovich’s striking could be a 70 as well. That said, I think Aspinall’s speed will be too much. Being that I’m now convinced Volkov has and has had 75 striking, I believe Aspinall’s striking is a 75 as well. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Pavlovich knocks him out quick because of the power he has, but Aspinall should win here.
Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Aspinall -225
MacKenzie Dern vs Jessica Andrade
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Angela Hill and Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Andrade looked okay against Tatiana Suarez until she didn’t. Wrestling held up as a 70, but she had problems defending Suarez’s grappling in the 2nd round and tapped out. I think Dern should be able to do the same.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Dern -175
Benoit St Denis vs Matt Frevola
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-0 at 155 lbs. 4-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Drew Dober, Ottman Azaitar, and Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I might be a tad high on St. Denis’ striking. It could be a 65 tool. I think he should of out struck Moises a bit more, but it was closer because he chose to brawl with Moises. Frevola’s striking has definitely leveled up to a 65 with 65 power. Can’t deny him that now. He’s gotten better in the stand up, but not sure if he’s made improvement’s in his wrestling since we haven’t seen him use that tool in awhile. This could be a close fight, but St Denis should have an edge to win.
Chris’ Pick: St Denis by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: St. Denis -250
Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini
- Diego Lopes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 21-6
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Gavin Tucker, Marcos Beltran, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Lucas Almeida, Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat TJ Laramie, Tucker Lutz, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
In almost all of Sabatini’s fights, he hasn’t been forced to stand and trade. Because he just takes his opponents down. He won’t be able to do that with Lopes. And as Damon Jackson showed, Sabatini can be knocked out.
Chris’ Pick: Lopes by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lopes -250
Alessandro Costa vs Steve Erceg
- Alessandro Costa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a 12-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Steve Erceg
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat David Dvorak.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I’m still not completely sold on Dvorak having 65 striking. The tool could be a 60. Thus Erceg’s striking could be a 60. But at the very least, I know Costa will have a huge power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Costa -175
Loopy Godinez vs Tabatha Ricci
- Loopy Godinez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1 at 115 lbs. 6-2 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed and Silvana Juarez. Beat Emily Ducote, Ariane Carnelossi, and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision over Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Penne. Beat Gillian Robertson, Polyana Viana, and a 12-4 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Very even fight, but I have a suspicion that Ricci’s striking could be as high as a 70 based on how she out struck Robertson.
Chris’ Pick: Ricci by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ricci -125
Mateusz Rebecki vs Roosevelt Roberts
- Mateusz Rebecki
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 18-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Loik Radzhabov, a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Submitted a 12-2 striker. Beat Nick Fiore and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Roosevelt Roberts
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Vinc Pichel.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m happy Roberts is coming back as he started his UFC career with a 5-1 record, looked like a potential contender. But then lost two in a row and got cut for some reason. And if Roberts has gotten better, this could be a somewhat competitive fight. But I think Rebecki’s power, cardio, and full camp will be too much.
Chris’ Pick: Rebecki by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Rebecki -200
Nazim Sadykhov vs Slava Borshchev
- Nazim Sadykhov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Terrence McKinney. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Slava Borshchev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maheshate. Dakota Bush and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Sadykhov was extremely impressive in being able to weather the 1st round storm of McKinney, to persevere. And then out grappling him in the 2nd round to get the submission. I have Borshchev’s wrestling at a 60 grade, but it’s very possible it’s a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Sadykhov by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Sadykhov -300
Jared Gordon vs Mark O. Madsen
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Leonardo Santos, Danny Chavez, and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Mark O. Madsen
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-4 striker. Beat Vinc Pichel, Austin Hubbard, and a well rounded 12-4 fighter. Split decision over Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Maybe Gordon has 70 striking after all. His no contest with Bobby Green only lasted 4 minutes, but the striking was close to equal. Gordon will have a monster advantage on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Gordon by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gordon -400
John Castaneda vs Kyung Ho Kang
- John Castaneda
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Miles Johns. Beat Muin Gafurov and a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Kyung Ho Kang
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Cristian Quinonez. Beat Batgerel Danaa. Split decision over Pingyuan Liu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Castaneda should win here. He just has to make sure he doesn’t gas out because Ho Kang’s cardio is probably better.
Chris’ Pick: Castaneda by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Castaneda -250
Joshua Van vs Kevin Borjas
- Joshua Van
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 wrestler. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Kevin Borjas
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Hard to decipher where Borjas’ tools were at. I was apparently the highman on Borjas, thinking he should be a -150 favorite going into his Contender fight with Victor Dias. I was way out there. Market had Dias close as a -380 favorite, think Dias would win pretty easily because of his grappling. And it looked that way after the 1st round. But Borjas was difficult to keep grounded and Dias ran out of gas about half way through the fight. Borjas took over, but how much was it his skill and how much of it was because Dias gassed out? Not entirely sure yet. In either case, I think Van’s wrestling is better than Dias and he should have the cardio to utilize it for 3 rounds if he needs to.
Chris’ Pick: Van by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Van -200
Jamall Emmers vs Dennis Buzukja
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Jenkins.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dennis Buzukja
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I really like Emmers here. Two paths to win. And I’m very confident I have the striking of both graded accurately.
Chris’ Pick: Emmers by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Emmers -450