Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka 2
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 205 lbs. 7-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamahal Hill, Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva. Split decision over Jan Blachowicz.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jiri Prochazka
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Draws: Fought a well rounded 6-1 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Reyes, Volkan Oezdemir, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 13-4 fighter, an 8-2 striker, a 14-4-1 grappler, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 12-4 wrestler. Submitted Glover Teixeira. Beat a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Prochazka could have a bit of a wrestling advantage. He took Pereira down in the 1st round in their first fight. But I don’t see him trying to do that for 5 rounds, nor would he have the cardio to do it being that both took this fight on about 2 weeks notice. Pereira’s near 80 grade power and the fact that he knocked Prochazka out in the 1st fight are the difference makers for me.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -175
Dan Ige vs Diego Lopes
- Dan Ige
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fili, Damon Jackson, and Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Nate Landwehr and Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Diego Lopes
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini. Submitted Gavin Tucker, Marcos Beltran, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Lopes by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Lopes -135
Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-6 at 205 lbs. 11-9 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Vitor Petrino, Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I think Smith’s grappling is on the higher end of a 65 grade, Dolidze’s grappling on the lower end of a 70 grade. Plus Dolidze is fighting up a weight class at 205 lbs, so I don’t think Dolidze’s grappling will be that much of a threat for Smith.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smith -200
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chiasson
- Mayra Bueno Silva
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Lina Lansberg, Stephanie Egger, and a 7-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Beat Yanan Wu. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Macy Chiasson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Pannie Kianzad twice. Knocked out Sarah Moras and Gina Mazany. Beat Marion Reneau. Split decision over Norma Dumont.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Bueno Silva closed as a -160 favorite against Raquel Pennington and I still think that was the right side. Bueno Silva got the better of the grappling during the first half of the fight, but the problem came when Bueno Silva had a body triangle in the 2nd round and gassed herself out going for a finish.
Chris’ Pick: Chiasson by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chiasson -175
Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Page
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Rodriguez, Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Neil Magny, Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over Geoff Neal.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Michael Page
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 22-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 28-5 grapper, a well rounded 17-3 fighter, a 9-3 striker, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 9-2 striker. Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat an 8-0 wrestler. Split decision over Douglas Lima.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Shavkat Rakhmonov out struck Neal 74 to 57. Machado Garry out struck Neal 65 to 38. So based on the confidence I have in Neal’s striking being a 70, I’m going to upgrade Machado Garry’s striking to a 75. After first watching Page against Holland, it seemed as if Page was out classing Holland, especially with how frustrated Holland was getting. Now, Page did land more strikes, but the first 2 rounds were close to equal.
Chris’ Pick: Machado Garry by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Machado Garry -325
Joe Pyfer vs Marc Andre Barriault
- Joe Pyfer
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, Alen Amedovski, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Curtis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez, Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Jordan Wright. Beat Eryk Anders and Dalcha Lungiambula.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I’m pretty sure Chris Curtis has 65 striking and based on how his strikes with Barriault were close to equal, I think it’s safe to say Barriault’s striking leveled up to a 65. Possible his wrestling could’ve gotten better too, but we haven’t see it yet. Pyfer was showing off 70 striking in the first half of his fight with Jack Hermansson. But he gassed out and Hermansson took over. Pyfer’s wrestling is close to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pyfer -200
Cub Swanson vs Andre Fili
- Cub Swanson
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 14-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda. Beat Hakeem Dawodu, Doo Ho Choi, and Kron Gracie.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Andre Fili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-10
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lucas Almeida, Gabriel Benitez, and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision wins over Bill Algeo and Charles Jourdain.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Fili has been knocked out in 2 of his last 5 fights, 1 of those being his last, against Dan Ige. Swanson’s striking is very close to a 70 grade, despite being 40 years old.
Chris’ Pick: Swanson by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Swanson -200
Charles Jourdain vs Jean Silva
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson. Majority decision loss to Shane Burgos.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted Ricardo Ramos, Lando Vannata and a 9-3 striker. Beat Kron Gracie and Andre Ewell.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jean Silva
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 5-2 striker. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat an 11-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I had Silva with 60 striking going into his last fight with Westin Wilson. Market disagreed and thought it was a 65. And despite the 1st round KO, Silva only out struck him 23 to 11. So on the one hand, there’s zero chance I see Wilson’s striking being a 60 grade. On the other hand, if that fight had continued, I’m pretty sure the gap in striking numbers would’ve gotten much wider, so I think it’s right for me to project his striking as a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jourdain -200
Payton Talbott vs Yanis Ghemmouri
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Aguirre. Knocked out Cameron Saaiman and an 8-1 striker. Beat Reyes Cortez Jr.
- Striking: near plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Yanis Ghemmouri
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Turns out William Gomis is really good. Then going back to Ghemmouri’s UFC debut against Gomis and the fact that Gomis out struck, but not by a ton, leaves me fairly confident that Ghemmouri has a 65 striking tool. I know Saamain has 65 striking because his strikes with Christian Rodriguez were close to equal. That said, Talbott comes out and out strikes Saaiman 54 to 30. Wow.
Chris’ Pick: Talbott by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Talbott -300
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Gillian Robertson
- Michelle Waterson-Gomez
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-8
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Luana Pinheiro and Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-1 at 115 lbs. 10-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Piera Rodriguez, Mariya Agapova, Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Polyana Viana and Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Robertson’s grappling is right on the bubble of a 70 grade, but I’ve come to believe it’s still closer to a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Waterson-Gomez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Waterson-Gomez -250
Andrei Arlovski vs Martin Buday
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 45
- UFC Record: 12-12 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Carlos Felipe, Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell. Split decision wins over Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Martin Buday
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Josh Parisian. Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Jake Collier and Chris Barnett. Split decision over Lukas Brzeski.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Amazingly, stunningly, Arlovski out struck Waldo Acosta Cortes 58 to 46. Crazy. Arlovski went through a stretch where it seemed his tools were starting to regress, but the numbers don’t lie and I know Acosta Cortes’ striking is for sure a 65. Haven’t seen Arlovski wrestle in awhile. So I’m not super confident where that tool is graded, somewhere between a 55 and 60. You’d come away from Buday’s fight with Gaziev thinking that Gaziev has these unbelievable tools. But then Gaziev fights Jairzinho Rozenstruik and you see Gaziev’s limitations. Which brings me back to Buday and what happened. I think he Gaziev hurt him really bad, early in the fight and things snowballed from there. Gaziev probably emptied the gas tank. But I can’t ignore the numbers in that Gaziev out struck him 35 to 8. And then Buday’s last fight before that, he out struck Parisian 28 to 20. So I think I need to down grade Buday’s striking to a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Buday by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Buday -200
Rei Tsuruya vs Carlos Hernandez
- Rei Tsuruya
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niushiyue Ji and a 4-1 wrestler. Submitted a 7-0 striker and an 8-3 wrestler. Beat Mark Climaco.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Beat Denys Bondar and a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
This fight should go real similar to how Hernandez’s last fight went with Tatsuro Taira.
Chris’ Pick: Tsuruya by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tsuruya -400
Ricky Simon vs Vinicius Oliveira
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jack Shore and Merab Dvalishvili. Knocked out Raphael Assuncao. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Vinicius Oliveira
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bernardo Sopai, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, a 12-3 grappler and a 12-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 12-3 fighter and a 13-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Either Bernardo Sopaj’s striking is a 65 or Oliveira’s is a 60 and unfortunately I haven’t seen enough of either to know for sure. And with how Sopaj was able to edge Oliveira out in the wrestling I think it’s highly unlikely Oliveira’s wrestling is above a 60. Mario Bautista out classing Simon had more to do with Bautista leveling up to having 70 tools. And also me coming to the realization that Simon’s wrestling is currently a 70, not a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Simon -225