Benoit St Denis vs Renato Moicano
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-1 at 155 lbs. 5-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-2 at 155 lbs. 10-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brad Riddell, Alexander Hernandez, Jai Herbert, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Jalin Turner. Beat Drew Dober and Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: St Denis by 2nd round knockout.
Nassourdine Imavov vs Brendan Allen
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler. Majority decision over Roman Dolidze.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 12-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Chris Curtis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Allen by 1st round submission.
William Gomis vs Joanderson Brito
- William Gomis
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri and a 6-1 striker. Beat a 9-1 striker. Split decision over Francis Marshall. Majority decision over a well rounded 13-3 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Jack Shore, Westin Wilson, Andre Fili, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
To my surprise, Gomis closed as only a -205 favorite over Ghemmouri, thinks that Ghemmouri has more power than I do. That said, Gomis out strikes him 47 to 24. Out classed hm. So I’m grading his striking a 70, but it’s in that lower range in the bubble area. Also have no problem upgrading his wrestling to a 65 with how he defended take downs against Marshall and out grappled Ghemmouri.
Chris’ Pick: Gomis by 2nd round knockout.
Kevin Jousset vs Bryan Battle
- Kevin Jousset
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Beat Kenan Song. Split decision win over a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabe Green and Takashi Sato. Submitted AJ Fletcher and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Market closed with Jousset as a -150 favorite against Song, but Jousset greatly outperformed the market out striking Song 121 to 55. Market thought Jousset had 65 striking all along, and clearly he does. But I also think it was a landslide due to Song regressing or not being as good as we thought with 55 striking. But I’m confident Jousset’s striking isn’t a 70 as Crosbie out landed him 36 to 25.
Chris’ Pick: Battle by 2nd round submission.
Morgan Charriere vs Gabriel Miranda
- Morgan Charriere
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 19-10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal.
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-2 grappler to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted William Gomis and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Knocked out Maolo Zecchini and a 17-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Gabriel Miranda
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Shane Young, a 6-0 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a 5-1 grappler, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Miranda by decision.
Fares Ziam vs Matt Frevola
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini. Split decision over Claudio Puelles.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Drew Dober, Ottman Azaitar, and Genaro Valdez. Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.
Ion Cutelaba vs Ivan Erslan
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-9-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tanner Boser, Khalil Rountree, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ivan Erslan
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter, an 11-4 striker, a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by decision.
Oumar Sy vs Da Woon Jung
- Oumar Sy
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted George Tokkos. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Da Woon Jung
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Sam Alvey to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu and Mike Rodriguez. Submitted Khadis Ibragimov. Beat William Knight, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Sy by decision.
Ludovit Klein vs Roosevelt Roberts
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Cunningham, Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Thiago Moises, Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Roosevelt Roberts
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Vinc Pichel.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Klein by decision.
Taylor Lapilus vs Vince Morales
- Taylor Lapilus
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nathan Maness, Yuta Sasaki, an 11-0 wrestler, and an 8-0-1 wrestler. Beat Cody Stamann, Caolan Loughran, a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Split decision over a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Vince Morales
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-6
- Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Lapilus by decision.
Ailin Perez vs Darya Dheleznyakova
- Ailin Perez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Joselyne Edwards, Lucie Pudilova, and Ashlee Evans Smith
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Dariya Zheleznyakova
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Montserrat Rendon.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Zheleznyakova had problems with Rendon taking her down. Well, Perez is an even better wrestler. Although, I thought Perez would dominate Edwards. Instead, Edwards was able to get back up repeatedly and I wonder if Edwards improved her wrestling to a 65 or if Perez’s wrestling is closer to a 65 than a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Perez -250
Victor Altamirano vs Daniel Barez
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Felipe dos Santos and Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador, a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Daniel Barez
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker. Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Beat a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I wasn’t the only one who thought dos Santos would easily beat Altamirano as dos Santos closed as a -285 favorite. But Altamirano’s skills took a massive step forward, especially with the wrestling. Probably the most impressive aspect was Altamirano’s cardio as he was able to wrestling for almost all 15 minutes in high altitude in Mexico City.
Chris’ Pick: Altamirano by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Altamirano -200
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Josiane Nunes, Zarah Fairn, Nora Cornolle and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nora Cornolle
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Melissa Mullins. Beat Joselyne Edwards.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Cavalcanti’s striking is a legit 70 grade. The 65 grade on her wrestling has more projection baked in but that’s only because we haven’t seen her wrestle much yet.
Chris’ Pick: Cavalcanti by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cavalcanti -250
Bolaji Oki vs Chris Duncan
- Bolaji Oki
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Beat an 11-0 striker. Split decision over Timothy Cuamba.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Beat Yanal Ashmoz. Split decision over Omar Morales.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’ve seen Duncan knocked out once and almost knocked out two other times. I’m not a believer in his chin.
Chris’ Pick: Oki by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oki -300