Adesanya vs Imavov, Magomedov vs Page, Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik Fight Picks – February 1, 2025

Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov

• Israel Adesanya
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 13-2 at 185 lbs. 13-3 overall.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Pereira, Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Nassourdine Imavov
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Brendan Allen, Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler. Majority decision over Roman Dolidze.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Adesanya did lose to Du Plessis, but for me, he showed off the best wrestling of his career. The tool improved to a 70 grade.

Chris’ Pick: Adesanya by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Adesanya -125

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Shara Magomedov vs Michael Page

• Shara Magomedov
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 15-0
• UFC Record: 4-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Armen Petrosyan, Antonio Trocolli, a 16-4 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Bruno Silva and a 21-5 wrestler.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Michael Page
• Age: 37
• Pro Record: 22-3
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 28-5 grapper, a well rounded 17-3 fighter, a 9-3 striker, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 9-2 striker. Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat an 8-0 wrestler. Split decision over Douglas Lima.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Page by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Page -135

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

• Sergei Pavlovich
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 6-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out Curtis Blaydes and Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Maurice Greene.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Jairzinho Rozenstruik
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 8-6
• Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Gaziev, Chris Daukaus, Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski. Split decision over Tai Tuivasa.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Pavlovich by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pavlovich -125

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Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Oliveira

• Said Nurmagomedov
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Stamann, Ricardo Ramos, and Mark Striegl. Submitted Muin Gafurov and Saidyokub Kahkramonov. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Vinicius Oliveira
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 20-3
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Bernardo Sopai, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, a 12-3 grappler and a 12-2 wrestler. Beat Ricky Simon, a well rounded 12-3 fighter, and a 13-1 wrestler.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Even if Simon’s striking regressed to a 60, I can easily grade Oliveira’s striking as a 70 with him out striking Simon 94 to 40.

Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oliveira -225

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Fares Ziam vs Mike Davis

• Fares Ziam
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini. Split decision over Claudio Puelles.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Mike Davis
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 4-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Natan Levy. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Slava Borshchev and Mason Jones.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

The striking numbers between Ziam and Frevola are lopsided with Ziam getting the better of it 45 to 9. And the fight closed as a pick em going in with the market thinking both had 65 striking. But I think the reason the numbers were so lopsided is because Frevola gassed himself out trying to get a guillotine in the 1st round and emptying the tank in the grappling. Ziam out struck Frevola only 13 to 6 in the 1st round.

Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ziam -125

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Muhammad Naimov vs Kaan Ofli

• Muhammad Naimov
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 3-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-1 striker. Beat Nathaniel Wood. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Kaan Ofli
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 10-3
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker. Beat a 5-2 wrestler and another 5-2 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Naimov by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Naimov -250

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Shamil Gaziev vs Thomas Petersen

• Shamil Gaziev
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 13-1
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Buday, Darko Stosic, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Don’Tale Mayes. Split decision over a 13-0 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Thomas Petersen
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 9-2
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Beat Mohammed Usman.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Gaziev by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gaziev -350

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Terrance McKinney vs Damir Hadzovic

• Terrance McKinney
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 5-4
• Key Wins: Knocked out Brendon Marotte, Mike Breeden, Matt Frevola, and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Damir Hadzovic
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 4-5
• Key Losses: Lost to Alan Patrick.
• Key Wins: Beat Yancy Medeiros. Split decision over Nick Hein.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: average (50)

Hadzovic returns for his first fight in almost 3 years. I think Hadzovic’s striking is a 60, but that’s largely based on what he did with Medeiros 4 years ago. Striking could absolutely be a 55. I am confident his wrestling is a 50 based on his last fight with Marc Diakiese.

Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: McKinney -500

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Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

• Mayra Bueno Silva
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 6-4-1 at 135 lbs.
• Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
• Key Wins: Submitted Lina Lansberg, Stephanie Egger, and a 7-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Beat Yanan Wu. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Jasmine Jasudavicius
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 7-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
• Key Wins: Submitted Ariane da Silva and Priscila Cachoeira. Beat Fatima Kline, Miranda Maverick, Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Bueno Silva moves down to 125 lbs for the first time in her UFC career. Will be interesting to see how her tools translate.

Chris’ Pick: Bueno Silva by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bueno Silva -250

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Bogdan Grad vs Lucas Alexander

• Bogdan Grad
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 14-2
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over a 9-1 striker.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Lucas Alexander
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 8-4
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Wins: Beat Steven Peterson.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Alexander by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Alexander -500

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Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Jamal Pogues

• Hamdy Abdelwahab
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 6-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Jamal Pogues
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 10-4
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Beat Thomas Petersen, Josh Parisian, a 10-1 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, an 11-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Abdelwahab by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Abdelwahab -200