Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns, Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Belal Muhammad and a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Kevin Holland.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Islam Makhachev
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 15-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Volkanovski, Bobby Green, and Gleison Tibau. Submitted Renato Moicano, Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Kajan Johnson. Beat Alexander Volkanovski, Nik Lentz, Arman Tsarukyan, and Davi Ramos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Della Maddalena -250
Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-1-1 at 125 lbs. 14-3-1 overall.
- Key Draw: Split decision draw to Alexa Grasso.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lauren Murphy, Jessica Andrade, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Manon Fiorot, Alexa Grasso, Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia. Split decision over Taila Santos.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Weili Zhang
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rose Namajunas.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Submitted Carla Esparza. Beat Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
The big obvious question here is how Weili’s skills translate up a weight class at 125 lbs. It’s possible her wrestling could be more of a 70 at this weight class.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Shevchenko -135
Sean Brady vs Michael Morales
- Sean Brady
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Leon Edwards, Kelvin Gastelum, Jake Matthews, and Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Gilbert Burns, Court McGee, and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus plus (80)
- Michael Morales
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns, Neil Magny, Adam Fugitt, and Trevin Giles. Beat Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Brady vs Edwards is hard to decipher as Brady’s grappling was so dominant. Has Brady leveled up that much? Has Edwards started to decline? Well, look at Brady’s last fight before Edwards, against Burns. Brady out struck Burns 118 to 32, which is crazy. So Brady’s striking being a 75 is real.
Chris’ Pick: Brady by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brady -250
Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-4
- Key Wins: Beat Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Carlos Prates
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, Jingliang Li, Charlie Radtke, Trevin Giles, an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I think Ian Garry Machado laid the blue print of how to beat Prates and think Edwards has the skills to replicate it.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Edwards -225
Benoit Saint Denis vs Beneil Dariush
- Benoit Saint Denis
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 155 lbs. 7-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Mauricio Ruffy, Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Beneil Dariush
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 17-6-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Saint Denis by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Saint Denis -135
Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira
- Bo Nickal
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Jamie Pickett, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out Valentine Woodburn. Beat Paul Craig.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Dustin Stoltzfus, Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I know Vieira’s striking is a 65 for sure because Gore’s striking isn’t worse than a 60 and Vieira out struck him 87 to 41. But. Vieira only got 1 take down out of 14 attempts. Hard to still grade Vieira’s grappling a 70 based on that. Because I don’t think Gore has 70 grappling but only 60 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Nickal by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nickal -225
Gregory Rodrigues vs Roman Kopylov
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Brad Tavares, Dennis Tiuliulin, Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Curtis, Josh Fremd, Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over Cesar Almeida.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodrigues -300
Erin Blanchfield vs Tracy Cortez
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted Jessica Andrade, Molly McCann, and JJ Aldrich. Beat Rose Namajunas, Taila Santos, Miranda Maverick, and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Tracy Cortez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto, Mariya Agapova, and Stephanie Egger. Split decision wins over Justin Kish and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Cortez’s wrestling is close to a 75, but not quite there yet.
Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blanchfield -135
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing
- Malcolm Wellmaker
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kris Moutinho, Cameron Saaiman, a 13-2 striker, and a 5-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ethyn Ewing
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Billy Brand and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ewing by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ewing -135
Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michel Pereira. Submitted Jamie Pickett and a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 12-12
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Andre Petroski, Kevin Holland, and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Edmen Shahbazyan, Bryan Barberena, Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Daukaus -175
Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jonathan Pearce, Lucas Almeida, Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Joanderson Brito, TJ Laramie, Tucker Lutz, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Chepe Mariscal
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Jenkins. Beat Ricardo Ramos, Damon Jackson, Trevor Peek, and Youssef Zalal. Split decision wins over Morgan Charriere and Pat Sabatini.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
There’s zero chance Brito’s grappling is worse than a 65. And Sabatini accrued bonkers ground control, almost 14 minutes in a 3 round fight. I would project that Sabatini’s striking is at least a 65, but it could be a 70 as well. It’s just hard to say because we rarely see a Sabatini fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Sabatini by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sabatini -250
Angela Hill vs Fatima Kline
- Angela Hill
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 12-12
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Pinheiro. Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Denise Gomes, Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision wins over Ketlen Souza and Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Fatima Kline
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Melissa Martinez and Viktoriia Dudakova. Beat a 4-1 striker and a well rounded 6-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Kline by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kline -200
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico
- Baisangur Susurkaev
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Eric Nolan. Knocked out Murtaza Talha and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat an 8-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Eric McConico
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 10-7-2 striker and a 5-3 striker. Split decision over Cody Brundage.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Susurkaev by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Susurkaev -300
Matheus Camilo vs Viacheslav Borshchev
- Matheus Camilo
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 wrestler and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat an 8-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Viacheslav Borshchev
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Draws: Fought Nazim Sadykhov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maheshate, Dakota Bush, and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler. Split decision over James Llontop.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Yes, Camilo lost in his UFC debut against Gabe Green. But. He actually out struck Green 12 to 10 and held his own on the ground. And. Camilo is training with Nova Uniao and Xtreme Couture. Slight possibility that Borshchev has 70 striking. Slight. Not likely, but he might.
Chris’ Pick: Camilo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Camilo -135