-Brandon Moreno: This fight features the 2 flyweights with the best chance to dethrone champion Demetrious Johnson in the next few years. Both Moreno and Sergio Pettis are 23 years old. Pettis is 6-2 in the UFC. Moreno is 3-0 in the UFC. So the fighters are on similar development paths. But I like Moreno due to his ability to finish fights, like when he submitted Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz. Finishing a fight means superior skill. Something Pettis hasn’t done since 2013 in his last fight before signing with the UFC at 19 years old. So it’s likely the power will come around for Pettis as he gets older, but Moreno is ahead of him right now in skill level. So I’m pretty confident Moreno wins by submission.
-Alexa Grasso: I’m not sure if Grasso is a future champion at 115 lbs. First off, she didn’t make weight for this fight. Second, she hasn’t shown a ton of finishing ability when she faces good competition. Ok, I’m done being picky now. Despite those minor flaws, Grasso is the #1 prospect at strawweight. She’s only 23 years old so it’s possible the power might come eventually. And I usually hesitate on picking fighters to win that miss weight, being that they might fight as well with the failed weight cut, but Randa Markos is not an elite strawweight. Markos is a gatekeeper and Grasso has already defeated a lot of other fighters with a similar skillset to Markos. I’d even say Grasso’s most impressive wins were back in Invicta when Grasso was 20 years old and beat Ashley Cummins and Alida Gray. Grasso needs more time to development before fighting more contenders like Felice Herrig, but she should be fine here to win via decision over Markos.
-Niko Price: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Really hard fight to pick. Normally, I’d say Alan Jouban is stepping into his prime with having such a big win over Mike Perry (despite the loss in his last fight to contender Gunnar Nelson). But Jouban is 34 years old and likely exiting his athletic peak. Jouban is solid with a 6-3 record, so he’s definitely sticking around in the UFC for awhile. So what about Price? Well, I’m surprised he’s 2-0 in the UFC with 2 finishes over pretty good fighters in Alex Morono and Brandon Thatch. Surprised because in his 8 fights outside the UFC, Price didn’t take a single fight against a decent opponent. All below average opponents. Fighters with 3 pro fights or less. So normally when someone like Price signs with the UFC and takes a gigantic step up in competition, they struggle. But that hasn’t happened with Price. Which tells me it’s possible that if he did compete against tougher opponents, the same finishes might have happened. I’m not super confident in picking Price because Jouban is a very solid fighter, but I’m going to go with the upside of 27 year old Price, possibly becoming a contender with a win here.
-Martin Bravo: I’m really looking forward to this fight. Lot of unknowns. Yes, Bravo at 23 years of age with a 11-0 record looks like a pretty good resume. But before being signed to the UFC, there was a big red flag in that the best fighter he had ever beaten was 3-0. But Claudio Puelles is pretty good and Bravo knocking him out in his UFC debut was impressive. Humberto Bandenay is probably going to have a good career. He’s only 22 years old. But i really hated his loss against Alonso Ganoza. Elite prospects don’t lose against fighters like Ganoza. Bandenay has looked good lately, but he has the disadvantage of this being his UFC debut and Bravo, by far, is the best fighter Bandenay has ever faced. I like Bravo here big. Will probably be by submission.
-Sam Alvey: Sports can be cruel to athletes that are reaching their mid to late 30’s. After losing 3 in a row and being 37 years old, Rashad Evans faces the potential of the end of his career. Now, I don’t think the bottom has fallen out in Evans’ skill. He lost to Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. 2 elite light heavyweights in their prime. And just lost a split decision to Daniel Kelly who is 6-2 in the UFC, very awkward and very hard to beat. It’s not like the UFC has been matching Evans up with tomato cans, easy fights, and losing them. But unfortunately for Evans, Alvey is an even tougher opponent than Kelly. Kelly is 39 years old. Alvey is 31 years old, still in his prime. And Alvey has quietly put together a 7-4 UFC record and 5 of his 7 wins have been finishes. Alvey is pretty good. Evans has lost 3 in a row. He’s 37 years old. And there’s a decent chance doubt is creeping into his mind. Might be a close fight. Evans might be able to grind Alvey out the same way Thales Leites did. But I see more ways for Alvey to win here than Evans, so I’m going with Alvey via decision.
-Alejandro Perez: Coin flip of a fight that really could go either way. Both fighters have a lot of similarities, but I think Perez is further along in his development, already having 5 fights in the UFC with a 3-1 record along with 1 draw. Plus, Andre Soukhamthath wasn’t exactly on a roll when the UFC signed him. When he signed, he had only won 4 of his last 6 fights. Not typical of a fighter the UFC signs. Perez is going to edge out Soukhmathath, probably by split decision.
-Jack Hermansson: Really confident with Hermansson in this fight. Bradley Scott is ok. He’s 3-3 in the UFC. But all 3 of his wins are over fighters that the UFC released. Hermansson has a 2-1 record in the UFC, which isn’t great, but he’s got the pedigree of a top prospect by finishing numerous quality opponents on the regional circuit. And the Alex Nicholson knockout really opened my eyes. I’ll be surprised if Hermansson doesn’t knock Scott out.
-Dustin Ortiz: Prepare yourself for a boring fight. Yes, Hector Sandoval is coming off a quick knockout over Matt Schnell, but Schnell isn’t that good. Sandoval’s resume is lackluster. No real quality wins over top prospects to speak of. He’s 31 years old. Ortiz is younger at 28 years old, he’s 5-5 in the UFC. He is what he is too. But that’s good enough to grind out Sandoval, via boring wrestling decision win.
-Rani Yahya: Enrique Briones is one of the worst prospects in the UFC right now. He’s 36 years old. When he got invited to TUF Latin America, he wasn’t even on a long winning streak. Meanwhile Yahya has found at home at 135 lbs, as he’s 4-1 in the UFC at his new weight class. He’s 32 years old and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. This is a really easy fight to pick. Yahya should submit Briones here.
-Diego Rivas: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Close fight, 2 pretty good prospects. Thing that impressed me the most about Jose Quinonez was his upset win over Alejandro Perez is only his 2nd pro fight. He’s 27 years old and will continue to get better. But I see more upside in Diego Rivas. Undefeated. 25 years old. Early on, I was skeptical of his hype because of the poor competition he’s fought against, but the knockout over Noad Lahat was a little bit of a coming out party for him. Now he’s cutting from 145 lbs to 135 lbs and should be the bigger fighter. Enough of an edge for me to pick Rivas by decision.
-Roberto Sanchez: Very good flyweight fight here. But the step up in competition is going to be too steep for Joseph Morales. Sanchez literally just beat a fighter in Jerome Rivera with a very similar profile to Morales. Same age, both 22 years old. Rivera was 7-0, Morales is 8-0. Prospects need to fight other top prospects before signing with the UFC to make sure they’re ready. The best Morales has fought has been 2-0 and 3-0 type fighters. Meanwhile Sanchez has been not only been beating other top prospects, but has been finishing them too. Sanchez will cruise here and possibly even get the submission.
-Alvaro Herrera: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Jordan Rinaldi doesn’t have the resume to belong in the UFC. He started off his pro career as a promising prospect going 6-0 until he lost to Jared Downing. From there he lost the next 4 out of 5 fights. Since then he has zero wins over quality opponents and is 0-1 in the UFC. Herrera is not that great of a prospect as well, but the 30 second knockout over Vernon Ramos was nice. Plus Herrera is cutting down from 170 lbs to 155 lbs and is 27 years old, so there’s a good chance this is the best Herrera we’ve ever seen. I like him to take the decision over Rinaldi.