-Darren Till: I think this is a pretty safe fight for Till to bounce back from. Jorge Masvidal has some wrestling, but not enough to take Till down. Especially when Tyron Woodley wasn’t able to take Till down. And Masvidal has knockout power, but he’s a smaller welterweight. I think Till is going to be really patient in this fight, knowing how durable Masvidal is and will use his superior technique to win the decision.
-Gunnar Nelson: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Nelson is 8-3 in the UFC and he only loses when he gets out wrestled or goes against fighters with take down defense and knockout power. Leon Edwards is 8-2 in the UFC and only loses when he gets taken down. So Edwards doesn’t have plus wrestling, doesn’t have knockout power, doesn’t have great take down defense. This is a recipe for a Nelson take down and submission win. 1st round.
-Dominick Reyes: This fight with Volkan Oezdemir is going to put Reyes into the elite in the division, although, he already looked like he belonged after he dominated Ovince St. Preux. Reyes is 29 years old. Undefeated. 4-0 in the UFC. And it’s a nightmare matchup for a one dimensional striker like Oezdemir. Like, Oezdemir’s wrestling looks like it’s improved a little bit, but not to the point where he could take 6’4 Reyes down. This is going to be a stand up fight and Reyes’ reach will be too much. 2nd round knockout for Reyes.
-Nathaniel Wood: This matchup shows that the UFC thinks they might have a star in Wood. 25 years old. 2-0 in the UFC so far. 15-3 pro record. 9 knockouts. 4 submissions. But 2 of his 4 submissions have come in his last 2 fights. So the exciting thing about Wood’s game is that he’s becoming a lot more well rounded. And Jose Quinonez has no path to victory here. Quinonez is good. 28 years old. 4-1 in the UFC. But he’s a volume striker with close to average wrestling. Striking technique wise, Wood and Quinonez are probably close to equal, but Wood definitely has more power. I think Quinonez’s wrestling keeps the fight on the feet and Wood knocks Quinonez out in the 2nd round.
-Claudio Silva: When Silva was coming in to fight Nordine Taleb, he was coming off a 4 year lay off. So I was skeptical. But wow, Silva blew me away. His grappling is at least plus. He was able to grab Taleb, took him down and submitted him in the 1st round. Danny Roberts is 31 years old. 5-2 in the UFC. Solid mid tier gate keeper. Well rounded. But Roberts will have no answer for Silva’s grappling. Another 1st round submission win for Silva.
-Jack Marshman: Not sure why this fight is on the main card. Marshman is 2-3 in the UFC. John Phillips has gone 0-2. Phillips is 33 years old. 21-8 pro record. More of a journeyman fighter. His calling card is his plus power, but his striking technique is average. Marshman isn’t great either and only has potential as a lower tier gate keeper in the UFC. I think Marshman could out strike Phillips, but the path of least resistance is taking Phillips down. Marshman will be able to do this and submit Phillips by the 2nd round.
-Arnold Allen: The UFC thinks they have something in Allen who’s 25 years old. 4-0 in the UFC so far. But they’re bringing him along slowly and booking him in winnable fights. Jordan Rinaldi is another of such opponents. Rinaldi is 31 years old. 2-2 in the UFC. Has above average wrestling and above average submission skills. Allen though is very well rounded, although I’d say Allen’s grappling is a little ahead of his striking and other skills. Trains out of Tristar. This is going to be a fight where Allen will be able to stuff Rinaldi’s take downs and get some striking work in. Allen by decision, because Rinaldi is pretty durable.
-Joe Duffy: Marc Diakiese is a very interesting young fighter. 25 years old. But I think he made his UFC debut too soon in his career. Currently, he’s 3-3 in the UFC. Has plus striking. Above average power. But he hasn’t really developed the other parts of his game. And a vet like Joe Duffy is going to be able to expose that. Duffy is 4-2 in the UFC. Has plus grappling. And has improved his striking enough to where I’d grade it as slightly above average. Duffy will be able to do well enough on his feet until he’s able to take Diakiese down. And after that will submit him. Likely by the 2nd round.
-Nicolae Negumereanu: This fight is a giant mystery in terms of what’s going to happen. Negumereanu is making his UFC debut on 2 weeks notice. 9-0 pro record. 24 years old. Beat up a bunch of tomato cans. Striking is his best tool but I wouldn’t know how to grade it, based on fighting way below average competition. However, he has become more well rounded lately. 6 knockouts. 3 submissions. His last 2 wins came off submissions. Saparbek Safarov is a striker. 32 years old. 0-2 in the UFC so far. Got submitted by Tyson Pedro and knocked out by Gian Villante. But before Safarov joined the UFC, he also had a padded record beating zero quality opponents. So my pick of Negumereanu has to do with the confidence of being undefeated and not losing 2 fights in a row. I think he out points Safarov on the feet. But not my most confident pick. Negumereanu by decision.
-Ian Heinisch: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Really looking forward to this fight. Both prospects are interesting for different reasons. Tom Breese has a high upside due to how well rounded he’s become. Fascinating thing about Breese is that when he signed with the UFC, he had a 70-0 record with 6 submission wins and 1 knockout. So he’s a grappler. But since moving his camp to Tristar, 3 of his last 4 wins have come by knockout. So Tristar has helped a ton with his striking technique and unlocking knockout power. Heinisch is decently well rounded too, but his primary base is in wrestling. Heinisch has 12 pro wins. 4 knockouts, 2 submissions, 6 decisions. But 3 of his last 4 wins have been knockouts. So Heinisch’s hands have been improving a ton too. And I was ultra impressed with Heinisch beating a quality mid tier gate keeper in Cezar Ferreira on short notice. In this fight, Heinisch’s wrestling is going to be the great equalizer. Fight will start out with both fighters seeing where the striking exchanges go. But if Heinisch starts getting beat, I think he can take Breese down if he wants to. Because of that extra way to win, I’m going to pick Heinisch by decision.
-Danny Henry: UPSET SPECIAL 3: When the UFC signed Henry, I looked at his record and wasn’t that impressed. He beat Daniel Teymur by decision in his debut, which was okay. But Henry really blew me away when he manhandled top prospect Hakeem Dawodu is his last fight, submitting him in 39 seconds. But Henry is also very well rounded. He’s got 12 pro wins. 5 knockouts. 5 submissions. But his grappling is at least a plus tool. Opponent Dan Ige also has a balanced skill set. Ige is 3-1 in the UFC so far. Henry is 2-0. I just really think highly of Henry’s grappling now and think that he could take Ige down if he wants to and I see a submission win for Henry in the 2nd round.
-Molly McCann: Razor close fight. These two are super similar to each other. Both the same age. Both have almost identical skill sets. Both have padded records outside the UFC never taking on any top prospects. Both lost their UFC debut. Based on what I’ve seen with my own eyes, I think McCann will have a slight edge on technique. But the reason I’m picking McCann is that it’s really hard for a fighter to come back from a brutal loss and Priscila Cachoeira’s loss to champion Valentina Shevchenko is as brutal as it gets. McCann got out grappled by Gillian Robertson but I think her confidence against Cachoeira will be fine considering it’s striker vs striker. McCann will win by split decision.
-Nad Narimani: Another close fight. And I could be wrong about this pick. It’s not a confident one. Both fighters are 31 years old. Narimani is 2-0 to start his UFC career. Mike Grundy is making his debut. Grundy is a submission specialist and has near plus plus grappling. And Grundy has a big submission win over top prospect and fellow grappler in Michael Tobin. Narimani’s best tool is his grappling but he’s way, way more well rounded than Grundy. Narimani also has near plus wrestling and average striking. Although the striking has been improving lately. I’m picking Narimani because I think he’s going to be able to use his wrestling to keep Grundy from taking him down or grabbing a hold of him. And on the feet Narimani will have a big advantage. So I’m going Narimani by decision.