-Francis Ngannou: This fight is pretty clear cut. Junior dos Santos has been on a bit of a comeback. Won 3 in a row. But before that, dos Santos lost 2 out of 3 getting out struck and knocked out by Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem. Dos Santos is 35 years old. He’s still a very legit upper tier gate keeper. Still has plus striking and power. But Ngannou is better. Ngannou has plus plus striking. Plus plus plus power. Ngannou has the most power of any fighter in the UFC. I don’t see any path to dos Santos winning and it’ll be over quick. Another 1st round knockout for Ngannou.
-Jussier Formiga: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Joseph Benavidez has had 24 fights between the UFC and WEC. That’s a ton of mileage on the body. He’s 34 years old. And to me, he hasn’t been the same since his last big injury that kept him out of the octagon for 2 years. He beat Henry Cejudo by split decision. Kept the fight on the feet. Out struck Cejudo. Was out for 2 years. Then Benavidez took on Sergio Pettis. Couldn’t get Pettis down. And Pettis out struck Benavidez. Since then, Benavidez got a nice knockout win over Alex Perez, but his win over Dustin Ortiz wasn’t as impressive. Formiga is coming into his own. And is coming off dominating wins over Sergio Pettis and Deiveson Figueiredo. Formiga now has plus plus grappling. And I predict he’s able to take Benavidez down and will cruise to a decision win.
-Anthony Rocco Martin: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Martin has been a completely different at 170 lbs. 29 years old. He started his UFC career going 4-4 at 155 lbs, but has now gone 4-0 at welterweight. And I knew after seeing Martin submit Jake Matthews that he now had a shot at becoming a contender. He now gets his shot and a favorable matchup against 41 year old Demian Maia. And the reality is that because Maia’s grappling is still plus plus, he could be an upper tier gate keeper for at least a few more years. But it’s pretty clear what the recipe is for beating Maia. Having the wrestling to stuff Maia’s take downs. I’d grade Martin as having plus wrestling and it being good enough to keep the fight on the feet. And with Maia being so durable, I’m picking Martin by decision.
-Drew Dober: Marco Polo Reyes has a 8-5 pro record for a reason. He’s got near plus power. But only has average striking technique. In other words, he’s very hittable and his chin doesn’t hold up that well. He’s 4-2 in the UFC. And the unfortunately thing is he doesn’t have much time to correct the deficiencies in his striking as he’s 34 years old. And it’s a bad formula to go against an accomplished striker in Dober. 30 years old. 6-5 UFC record. Dober has been better of late but has reached his full potential as lower tier gate keeper, as his grappling and wrestling haven’t improved that much. But in this fight, he’ll have no problem out striking and knocking out Reyes in the 2nd round.
-Roosevelt Roberts: Pretty good test for Roberts here. 25 years old. 3-0 UFC record. Pretty well rounded. Has above average striking, average power, above average grappling, with the potential of a couple of those tools becoming plus. Very good prospect. And Vinc Pichel will provide a pretty good read on how far along Roosevelt is in his devlopment. Pichel is 36 years old. 4-2 in the UFC. Has above average striking and average wrestling. Not sure Roosevelt is able to take Pichel down. He might, but more likely this fight plays out standing up. So it’s Pichel’s striking vs Roosevelt’s striking. And I think Roosevelt is quicker and slicker. Roosevelt by decision.
-Alonzo Menifield: I’m convinced that by now, Menifield knows to stay far away from Paul Craig’s guard. Craig is the quintessential submission specialist. Plus grappling. But he’s not as good on the take downs and lacks all the other skills. Craig is 31 years old. 3-3 in the UFC. Menifield is also 31 years old. 2-0 in the UFC. 8-0 pro record. Has plus striking. I think Menifield learns from other’s mistakes and knocks Craig out in the 1st round.
-Ricardo Ramos: Sergio Pettis got hurt and Journey Newson comes in on short notice. 7-1 pro record. 30 years old. Has average grappling. Ramos is 23 years old. 3-1 UFC record. He’s improved his striking enough for it to be close to above average. But is more well known for his plus grappling. Ramos has the upside of a title contender. Newson is 30 years old. Has average grappling. Obviously Ramos is better than Newson everywhere and will have a significant cardio advantage due to Newson fighting on 2 weeks notice. I think Ramos is going to use this cage time to work on his hands and predict he knocks Newson out in the 1st round.
-Eryk Anders: Anders 3-4 UFC record is a little deceiving. He started 2-0 in the UFC, got a main event fight with Lyoto Machida and barely lost by split decision. Came back to knock out Tim Williams. After that, lost to 3 really good fighters. Thiago Santos, Elias Theodorou, and Khalil Rountree. But Anders has only had 1 fight at 205 lbs which I think is the better weight class for him. Anders has near plus striking, above average power, and above average wrestling. Vinicius Moreira is 30 years old. 1-1 in the UFC. 9-2 pro record. Has above average grappling. So Moreira has a path way to win if he can take Anders down, but I think Anders stuffs the take downs, shucks off the clinches and knocks Moreira out in the 2nd round.
-Jordan Griffin: Griffin was originally going to fight Chas Skelley and that would’ve been fun, but Skelley got hurt and Vince Murdock is the best the UFC could come up with on short notice. Which probably says a lot about what peers think of Griffin. Griffin has a 17-6 pro record, but don’t let that fool you. He’s 29 years old now, but started his career 21 years old. Lost his first 3 out of 4 fights. Had a 1-3 record. Since then, he’s gone 16-3. He’s beat some pretty solid prospects. And 2 of his 3 losses were against fighters currently in the UFC, one of them being rising contender Dan Ige. And the other is about to get a title shot in Bellator who has a 23-1 record named Juan Archuleta. Griffin has near plus grappling to pair with average striking. Murdock is 10-5. 28 years old. Has lost 2 in a row. Of those 2 losses, one opponent had a 2-2 record, the other was 3-1. All Murdocks tools are below average. This is going to be a quick 1st round submission win for Griffin.
-Jared Gordon: This type of matchup shows the UFC still believes in Gordon’s potential. Gordon has lost 2 in a row since starting his UFC career 2-0 and this is a soft landing spot for a bounce back. Gordon is 30 years old. Has above average striking and plus wrestling. And because of Gordon’s wrestling, this is a nightmare matchup for Dan Moret. Moret is 32 years old. Has above average grappling. A submission specialist. 0-2 in the UFC. 13-5 pro record. Moret will fail to take Gordon down and I expect Gordon’s striking to take another step here. 1st round Gordon knockout.
-Dalcha Lungiambula: Lungiambula is making his UFC debut. 33 years old. 9-1 pro record. Has average striking and that’s about it. I’m not high on him. I think Lungiambula’s last fight with veteran regional fighter Andrew van Zyl was a good litmus test on where Lungiambula is at and he barely won by split decision. Lungiambula’s one loss is from getting taken down and submitted. He was going to take on Justin Ledet, but he got hurt and in steps Dequan Townsend. A welterweight who’s fighting at 205 lbs because he took the fight on a few days notice. 18-7 pro record. 2 fights again he got a nice knockout win over UFC vet Hector Urbina. Average striking. Townsend is durable. Has never been knocked out. This could’ve been a closer fight on paper as Lungiambula’s striking and Townsend’s striking technique is close to equal, but the reality is Lungiambula is much bigger and will have way better cardio. Lungiambula by decision.
-Amanda Ribas: UPSET SPECIAL 4: Ribas returns off a long 3 year layoff. But she’s still only 25 years old. 6-1 pro record. Making her UFC debut. She’s beaten some pretty decent competition. Only loss was against UFC fighter Polyana Viana. Ribas is well rounded. Has above average striking. Average grappling. Opponent Emily Whitmire is 28 years old. 3-2 in the UFC. Has above average grappling and showed real improvement in her last fight beating Aleksandra Albu. Whitmire is likely the better grappler in this fight, but not better enough to take Ribas down. This will be a stand up fight where Ribas will have the advantage and will out point Whitmire to win by decision.
-Maurice Greene: Junior Albini threw me for a loop. UFC signs him with a 13-2 pro record. I didn’t know what to make of him because he didn’t have a win over a single quality opponent. And knocks out lower tier gate keeper Tim Johnson in the 1st round in his UFC debut. And I’m like, okay, this guy could be really good. But then following that, Andrei Arlovski, Alexey Oleynik, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a row. Albini is 28 years old. And based on the evidence, I’m inclined to think the knockout over Johnson was more of a fluke. Albini is well rounded, but all of his tools are average. Average striking, power, and grappling. Greene is a pretty interesting prospect. 32 years old. 2-0 in the UFC. Has above average grappling and improved his striking enough to get an average grade from me. Greene has the best tool in the fight. I expect him to take Albini down. And will eventually submit him in the 2nd round.