-Valentina Shevchenko: This is one of those title fights where there’s no clear cut #1 contender, so they just give the title shot to whoever has the biggest name. In this case it’s Liz Carmouche who’s now 35 years old. 5-4 in the UFC. Above average wrestling. Above average striking. But she has no chance against the 31 year old Shevchenko. 6-2 UFC record. Plus plus striking. Plus grappling. She has no weaknesses. No holes. This is going to be a wipe out. Shevchenko by 2nd round knockout.
-Vicente Luque: It’s tempting to pick Mike Perry because he has improved in a few ways. Still only 27 years old. 6-4 UFC record. I used to think he had plus striking, but that loss to Max Griffin was so ugly. The tool is probably closer to just being above average. Luque though is becoming a contender. Also 27 years old. 9-2 in the UFC. His striking is at least plus and I think eventually becomes a plus plus weapon. He also has above average grappling. It’s tempting to pick Perry because he’s so durable. And maybe he has more power than Luque. And maybe because Luque’s chin has never been tested by a power puncher like Perry. All those are possibilities, but there’s too many maybe. What’s most likely to happen is Luque out strikes Perry for 3 rounds and cruises to a decision win and that’s what I’m going with.
-Luiz Garagorri: Humberto Bandenay has potential and tools but he’s yet to put them together. He’s now 1-2 in the UFC. The knockout win over Martin Bravo made things look promising. No shame in losing to Gabriel Benitez. But the loss to Austin Arnett looks bad, considering Arnett has a 1-4 UFC record. Bandenay has average striking and average grappling. Garagorri is a top prospect and someone the UFC could build the Uruguay market around. 30 years old. 11-0 pro record. Above average grappling, average striking. I think Garagorri is better than Bandenay everywhere but Garagorri’s grappling is the best tool in the fight. Garagorri is going to take Bandenay down and submit him in the 1st round.
-Volkan Oezdemir: Oezdemir’s UFC career can show you how quickly things can change. 29 years old. Started his career 3-0 in the UFC. Got a title shot. Lost to Daniel Cormier. Then lost 2 more in a row to fellow contenders Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes. Oezdemir features plus striking and power. He takes on Ilir Latifi who’s a very solid upper tier gate keeper. 35 years old. 7-4 in the UFC, although 1 of the losses was to Gegard Mousasi who Latifi fought on 24 hours notice. Latifi is more well rounded. His path to win here would be to some how take Oezdemir down. But I think after losing on the ground against Cormier and Smith, Oezdemir’s take down defense should be even more improved here in this fight. I predict Oezdemir is able to stuff the take downs and will have better technical striking and will be faster, which will set up a 2nd round knockout.
-Rodolfo Vieira: Oskar Piechota is a decent prospect. 29 years old. 2-1 in the UFC. 11-1 pro record. Above average striking. Average grappling. His opponent Vieira will have the best tool in the fight, that’s his near plus grappling. Vieira is 29 years old. 5-0 pro record. And didn’t really impress me until his last fight where he submitted a 10-1 fighter with pretty good wrestling. I don’t think Piechota has the skills to keep the fight on the feet, especially after Piechota’s last fight where he got tapped out by Gerald Meerschaert. Vieira take down and submission in the 1st round.
-Enrique Barzola: I see no reason why this wouldn’t be the normal Barzola fight. Barzola is 30 years old. And his plus wrestling has carried him to a 5-2 UFC record. Bobby Moffett is 29 years old. 2-1 in the UFC so far. Above average grappling. And normally when we have ground fighter vs ground fighter, we get a stand up fight. But I think Barzola is confident in his ability to control his opponents on the ground that he’ll take Moffett down and avoid submissions to win by decision.
-Cyril Gane: Gane is one of the best heavyweight prospects in the world. 29 years old. 3-0 pro record. On paper, there’s nothing special. But in Gane’s 2nd pro fight he knocked out a 7-0 striker and in his 3rd pro fight, he knocked out an 8-1 striker. That’s pretty rare for a fighter to have the confidence to face competition like that so early on. So I grade his striking as plus already. Raphael Pessoa is 9-0. 30 years old. All his wins are over cans. Above average striking. I’m pretty confident Gane has the better striking and knocks Pessoa out in the 2nd round.
-Tecia Torres: Just because Torres has lost 3 in a row, doesn’t mean her tools have vanished. She lost to 3 of the top 5 in the 115 lb division. No shame there. Torres remains an effective mid tier gate keeper. 7-6 UFC record. Still has plus striking, although her power is below average. She doesn’t have a single knockout. Marina Rodriguez is a decent prospect. 2-0-1 UFC record. 11-0-1 pro record. 32 years old. Has above average striking and average wrestling. The wrestling was shown off in her last UFC fight stuffing Jessica Aguilar’s take downs. So that bodes well for Rodriguez’s future, but doesn’t change the fact that Torres will use her speed to get in and out. And will out point Rodriguez on the feet to win by decision.
-Rogerio Bontorin: Raulian Paiva is 23 years old. 1-1 in the UFC. 18-2 pro record. Average striking paired with below average power. Average wrestling. He takes on Bontorin who’s a very good prospect. 27 years old. 2-0 UFC record. 15-1 pro record. Submitted an elite well rounded prospect and out grappled an elite wrestling prospect in Magomed Bibulatov. Bontorin has plus grappling and his stand up has improved to where it’s average. Bontorin will have no problem eventually getting Paiva to the ground and will submit him pretty easily. 1st round.
-Geraldo de Freitas: I normally don’t go by MMA math, but being that this is such a closely matched fight, I will. Especially because I was so impressed the other week by Felipe Dias. Dias upset Domingo Pilarte, and Pilarte is a really good prospect. I bring up Dias because that’s who de Freitas beat in his UFC debut. De Freitas is 27 years old. 12-4 pro record. Has striking that is slightly above average and average grappling. He takes on Chris Gutierrez. 28 years old. 1-1 UFC record. 13-4-1 pro record. Average striking. Average wrestling. Both de Freitas and Gutierrez are more volume strikers. Close fight. Could be a split decision. But I see de Freitas edging out Gutierrez in the stand up to win.
-Rodrigo Vargas: Alex da Silva started his pro career when he was 18 years old and while his 20-2 pro record looks impressive, it’s extremely padded. About 75% of his wins were over fighters making their pro debuts. Da Silva is 23 years old now. Lost his UFC debut to Alexander Yakovlev who had a 2-4 UFC record. As of now da Silva has average striking and close to average grappling with the potential for more as he develops. Vargas is 33 years old. 10-2 pro record. Above average striking. He really impressed me he knocked out a well rounded 10-1 fighter in only Vargas’ 3rd pro fight. He’s beat a handful of quality prospects. It’s obvious to me that even though Vargas is taking this fight on 2 weeks notice, da Silva isn’t ready for the UFC. I see Vargas knocking da Silva out in the 2nd round.
-Alexey Kunchenko: This fight got a whole lot more interesting with Gilbert Burns stepping in on less than 2 weeks notice, replacing the injured Laureano Staropoli. Kunchenko is an elite prospect and possible title contender. 35 years old. 20-0 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC. Plus striking, above average power, plus wrestling. Burns is also really good. 33 years old. 8-3 UFC record. Plus grappling. Above average striking. But this is his first fight at 170 lbs. I’m picking Kunchenko because I can’t imagine Burns being able to take Kunchenko down. Burns will be a smaller welterweight. I see this fight playing out on the feet and Kunchenko just has the better striking. Kunchenko by decision.
-Polyana Viana: It’s possible that Veronica Macedo has a successful career ahead of her. She’s only 23 years old. But she’s 0-3 in the UFC. Pro record is now 5-3. Her best tool is her striking, but it’s below average. Viana is a better prospect. 27 years old. 1-2 UFC record. Has a knockout over current UFC fighter Amanda Ribas. Above average striking. Average grappling. Viana really could beat Macedo anywhere, but I’ll pick path of least resistance which is taking Macedo down and submitting her in the 2nd round.