Michael Chiesa vs Neil Magny
- Michael Chiesa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 170 lbs. 10-4 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Beneil Bariush. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Tools: Chiesa has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Neil Magny
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 20-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Lorenz Larkin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means.
- Tools: Magny has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
Chiesa’s grappling has really carried him to the top. Even against dos Anjos, who has 65 wrestling, Chiesa was able to take him down again and again. Control the fight. Pull out the W. That fight proved that at 170 lbs, Chiesa has true 70 grappling. The problem though is Magny has recently fought someone very similar to Chiesa. Anthony Rocco Martin. Not a grappler, but a wrestler. And I grade Martin with 70 wrestling. He proved it, barely losing to Demian Maia, he of 75 grappling. So how did Magny vs Martin go down? 1st round, was pretty even. Striking close to equal. But Magny’s game has evolved to focus on using his cardio as a weapon. His pace and volume of strikes wore Martin down and by half way through the fight, it was all Magny. Exact same thing will happen here. But the thing that makes this fight a lock for Magny is that it’s 5 rounds. I don’t see Chiesa’s cardio holding up.
Chris’ Pick: Magny by decision.
Warlley Alves vs Mounir Lazzez
- Warlley Alves
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Colby Covington in 2015. Also submitted Nordine Taleb. Knocked out Sergio Moraes. Beat Alan Jouban.
- Tools: Alves has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
- Mounir Lazzez
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker. Beat Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Tools: Lazzez has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
I wasn’t the only one shocked to see Lazzez dominate Abdul Razak Alhassan. Alhassan came into the fight as a little more than a 3 to 1 favorite. Meaning that Alhassan had more than a 75% chance of winning. And maybe Lazzez looking as good as he did had to do with Alhassan gassing himself out in the 1st round going for the finish. Maybe Lazzez is just that good. But I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Early in his career, some had Alves pegged as a potential contender, but he’s plateaued a bit. Mainly because his striking hasn’t improved, remains average. Lazzez showed he has wrestling, I expect this fight to be on the feet, and in my opinion, Lazzez has a ton of value if you can get him at -200.
Chris’ Pick: Lazzez by 2nd round knockout.
Isaac Villanueva vs Vinicius Moreira
- Isaac Villanueva
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 16-10
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 2-1 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Lost to a 4-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter and a 9-4 striker.
- Tools: Villanueva has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
- Vinicius Moreira
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Submitted John Allan, an 8-2 striker, and a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Moreira has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I feel like Moreira is a better fighter than what he’s shown so far. I mean, his last 3 fights in the UFC have been against quality opponents in Alonzo Menifield, Eryk Anders, and Paul Craig. And Moreira does have a submission over John Allan, who’s pretty good. And I just don’t see how Villanueva keeps this fight on the feet. Villanueva used to fight at 185 lbs and I think that’s his ideal weight class. But he’s 36 years old now and headed towards the end of his career. Moreira will have no problem getting Villanueva to the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Moreira by 1st round submission.
Roxanne Modafferi vs Viviane Araujo
- Roxanne Modafferi
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-5 in her 2nd UFC stint.
- Key Wins: Beat Andrea Lee and Maycee Barber. Split decision win over Antonina Shevchenko.
- Tools: Modafferi has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Alexis Davis.
- Tools: Araujo has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
Araujo looked like she was on her way to getting a very quick title shot at 125 lbs until she took on Jessica Eye and Eye turned her back. Eye had better striking and Araujo couldn’t take Eye down. Almost a year later, Araujo returned against de la Rosa and came back improved. Which is great because even though Araujo is new to the UFC, she’s 34 years old. If you were to ask me before the de la Rosa fight, could Araujo beat Modafferi, I’d say no. Modafferi would take Araujo down. But then I saw the de la Rosa fight. De la Rosa, who has 65 grappling, didn’t get anywhere close to taking Araujo down, despite multiple attempts. I upgraded Araujo’s grappling to a 65. I think most of this fight is on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Araujo by decision.
Matt Schnell vs Tyson Nam
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa.
- Tools: Schnell has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Tyson Nam
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 20-11-1
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jerome Rivera.
- Tools: Nam has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Schnell is one of those rare fighters that starts his UFC career with a losing record, a 1-3 record, and becomes a potential contender. After the 3rd loss, he went on to win 4 in a row, including two 1st round submissions over Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. And although he got knocked out by Alexandre Pantoja in his last fight, the striking was decently competitive up to that point. Made it pretty clear Schnell had improved his striking. And Nam looks rejuvenated, coming off 2 knockouts in a row. But we have to remember he’s 37 years old and has 32 pro fights. I think the story of this fight is going to be Schnell getting Nam to the ground and keeping him there.
Chris’ Pick: Schnell by 2nd round submission.
Lerone Murphy vs Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Lerone Murphy
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-0-1
- UFC Record: 1-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Ramos. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Murphy has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Beat Marlon Vera.
- Tools: de Andrade has above average striking with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
It’s only been a couple fights in the UFC, but Murphy looks like a potential contender. I was blown away by how close he was to beating Tukhugov on short notice. And for him to knock out Ramos in the 1st round. Ramos, who had a 5-1 UFC record going into the fight. Silva de Andrade is pretty good but seems like he’s at his ceiling. He’s 35 years old. Looks like he has power, but he only has 1 knockout win in 7 UFC fights. Murphy is better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Murphy by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
Tom Breese vs Omari Akhmedov
- Tom Breese
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Kelly.
- Tools: Breese has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Omari Akhmedov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Marvin Vettori to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Ian Heinisch and Zak Cummings.
- Tools: Akhmedov has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Brendan Allen showed true 70 wrestling against Breese by taking him down, keeping him there, and knocking him out with ground and pound. After that though, Breese rebounded by doing what he was supposed to do against KB Bhullar. Breese still has a lot of upside, but the key for him is staying healthy. Akhmedov came really close to beating Chris Weidman, but ultimately got out wrestled in the final round and lost a close fight. Cardio I think is close to equal. Allen kept Breese down, but I don’t think Akhmedov will be able to.
Chris’ Pick: Breese by decision.
Ricky Simon vs Gaetano Pirrello
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Merab Dvalishvili. Beat Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Tools: Simon has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Gaetano Pirrello
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler and a 14-5 striker. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Pirrello has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
The line hasn’t come out yet for this fight, but from what I’ve seen of Pirrello, he’s going to get wiped out by Simon. I watched Pirrello fight an 8-3-1 wrestler a couple years ago and Pirrello got dominated. Taken down repeatedly, controlled on the ground, then knocked out in the 2nd round. Simon has 70 wrestling. I can’t see how this fight escapes the 1st round.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
Su Mudaerji vs Zarrukh Adashev
- Su Mudaerji
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Louis Smolka and a 10-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Malcolm Gordon, a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter, and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: Su has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Zarrukh Adashev
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler in his pro dedut in 2015.
- Tools: Adashev has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
It’s difficult to gage how good Adashev’s wrestling is with so few MMA pro fights. He’s a decorated kick boxer. Saw him get knocked out quick by Tyson Nam in his UFC debut. I like Su as long as the line doesn’t get crazy. And we haven’t seen much of Su at 125 lbs, but in the 44 seconds with Malcolm Gordon, he resembled a possible title contender. Su’s wrestling should be better. He should be able to take Adashev down. But I’m pretty confident in picking Su because I think his striking is better too.
Chris’ Pick: Su by decision.
Dalcha Lungiambula vs Markus Perez
- Dalcha Lungiambula
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 16-3 striker.
- Tools: Lungiambula has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Markus Perez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Hernandez.
- Tools: Perez has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Perez steps in on a couple weeks notice. And he’s been a bit of a disappointment to me. He submitted Ian Heinisch in LFA. Next fight, made his UFC debut, fighting Eryk Anders on only a few days notice. And almost won! Submits an 8-2 grappler. Loses to Andrew Sanchez. No shame there. Submits Anthony Hernandez. So his future was looking bright. Then he loses to Wellington Turman and a prospect in Dricus du Plessis. Now, maybe Turman and du Plessis go on to becoming really good, but I was pretty surprised and downgraded Perez’s tools a little bit. And Lungiambula is a horrible matchup for him. I was actually picking Lungiambula to upset Karl Roberson when that fight was booked. Lungiambula will have a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Lungiambula by 1st round knockout.
Jerome Rivera vs Francisco Figueiredo
- Jerome Rivera
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Tools: Rivera has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Francisco Figueiredo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Figueiredo has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
There’s a lot of value In Rivera at anywhere north of +110 because of public perception. The general betting public a lot of times can be moved due to what fighters have done in their last fight and star power. So a lot people have a visual of Rivera’s last fight and that’s of him getting knocked out by Tyson Nam. But if you watch the fight, Rivera was doing okay. The 1st round between him and Nam was close before Nam knocked him out seconds into the 2nd round. And then with Francisco Figueiredo, he’s Deiveson’s brother. So there’s that. But I have Figueiredo graded as average across the board. Rivera’s superior striking will make the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Rivera by decision.
Mike Davis vs Mason Jones
- Mike Davis
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Davis has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Mason Jones
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 6-2 grappler, and a 12-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Jones has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Jones has a lot of hype on his name right now, but I’m shocked that some books have Davis as only a 2 to 1 favorite. Some books even have Davis at -180. That’s crazy. Maybe it’s because Davis hasn’t fought in over a year. Davis gave Sodiq Yusuff his toughest test and had a competitive fight with Gilbert Burns at 155 lbs. Davis being a natural 145 lb featherweight. But now I’m looking at my tools, and yeah haha, I did grade Jones with 55 striking, 55 wrestling and grappling. Maybe I think Davis’ tools are a little better than how I graded them for now.
Chris’ Pick: Davis by 2nd round knockout.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Sergey Morozov
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 12-0-1 grappler and a 5-0 grappler.
- Tools: Nurmagomedov has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Sergey Morozov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and a 5-0-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 11-3 wrestler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Tools: Morozov has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
I’ve learned that it’s not wise to doubt the UFC matchmakers. But I’ve watched two Morozov fights and nothing he did really jumped out at me. I saw average 50 skills across the board. Which makes me think maybe they think highly of Khabib’s cousin Umar and want him to look good in his UFC debut.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
Victoria Leonardo vs Manon Fiorot
- Victoria Leonardo
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0-1 striker. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Leonardo has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Fiorot has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
Fiorot has 4 knockouts in 5 wins, which is impressive for a female flyweight. Fiorot has cardio, is long and lanky. She also has way more power than Leonardo. It’s also possible Fiorot’s wrestling could be a 55. I’m very confident in this being a stand up fight. I think the first half will be close, but Fiorot will pour it on in the second half.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by decision.