Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
- Kamaru Usman
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 13-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
- Tools: Usman has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
- Jorge Masvidal
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-5 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Demian Maia, Ben Henderson, and Lorenz Larkin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Diaz, Ben Askren, Darren Till, and Donald Cerrone.
- Tools: Masvidal has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
It might appear to a lot of people that Masvidal has been on this lucky streak. He got lucky knocking out Till. Got lucky knocking out Askren. Then that win over Nate Diaz, Diaz is over rated. I don’t think that’s the case at all. Look at all the fights he had before those. The reality is that Masvidal really got better when he permanently moved up to 170 lbs. He knocked out Jake Ellenberger in the 1st round in 2016. Knocked out Cerrone, right when Cerrone was on the verge of getting a title shot. He had a really close split decision loss to Maia. From Maia’s 75 grappling. And lost a super close fight to Stephen Thompson who has 75 striking. The way that Masvidal out struck Diaz has me convinced he has 75 striking. Till has 70 striking too. But the real question is can Masvidal look that much different in the 2nd fight? It’s very possible. Watch the 1st round of the first fight. Masvidal was taken down early. Got back up. And out struck Usman on the feet. He took the fight on 6 days notice. That’s a real detriment. And let’s not forget Usman was in a war with Burns just 2 months ago. Usman’s chin took serious damage and he can’t have fully recovered since then. Damage is a real thing too. I’m not saying that Masvidal will easily win. I’m saying this fight should be priced with Usman at around -150 or -175. Usman has slightly better wrestling, Masvidal has slightly better striking. But Usman is floating around -450 to -500. It’s crazy. Masvidal at +350? That’s just too good to pass up. After Usman was rocked in that Burns fight, he’s not going to be as durable here. I like the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Masvidal by 3rd round knockout.
Zhang Weili vs Rose Namajunas
- Zhang Weili
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Zhang has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Rose Namajunas
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk twice, once by knockout, the other by decision. Submitted Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
- Tools: Namajunas has near plus plus striking (75) and plus grappling (70).
There’s a lot of people picking Zhang in this fight. And I think they’re making a mistake in assuming she has high level wrestling. Because we haven’t seen it. She has not fought a high level grappler or wrestler. She hasn’t. I remember when she got a title shot at Andrade after a 3-0 UFC record. She beat Danielle Taylor, Jessica Aguilar, and Tecia Torres. When she beat Andrade, she blitzed her in the first minute, knocked her out. Then she had that war with Joanna. Again. No high level grapplers. Does she have at least above average wrestling? Yeah. Is it going to be good enough to stop take downs from Namajunas? I’m not sure. If you think Zhang can stuff them, it’s mostly projection because we haven’t seen it. And for what it’s worth, I think Namajunas has better striking. Zhang out struck Torres. That’s good. The quick knockout, those happen sometimes. Joanna? She’s not the same fighter she once was. Going into that Zhang fight, Joanna had lost 3 out of her last 5 fights. 2 of those losses were to Namajunas. And you could say that Namajunas beat Joanna more handily than Zhang did. Namajunas can be had for +170 in a lot of books. She’s easily the best value bet on this whole card.
Chris’ Pick: Namajunas by 2nd round submission.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade
- Valentina Shevchenko
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-0 at 125 lbs. 9-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Katlyn Chookagian and Jessica Eye. Submitted Julianna Pena. Beat Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Liz Carmouche, and Jennifer Maia.
- Tools: Valentina Shevchenko has plus plus striking paired with plus power (80-70). She also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 125 lbs. 7-2 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Andrade has plus striking (70). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
My knee jerk reaction after watching Shevchenko fight Jennifer Maia was, wow. What happened? Is Shevchenko regressing already? Is her wrestling not as good as I thought after Maia kept her down the whole 2nd round? Could Andrade’s wrestling be a threat. But I got some reassurance after watching the fight again. It seems that Shevchenko stayed on her back because she didn’t want to take a risk trying to scramble up and getting caught in a submission. Shevchenko held Maia down the whole 1st round, most of the 3rd, and most of the 4th. Shevchenko has the better wrestling. She was just being risk averse. That said, Andrade is going to need a lucky knockout to win. She’s going to have to blitz Shevchenko. She won’t win at range. But Shevchenko is a master defensive striker. Knows how to get out of the way. And I don’t think Andrade is built to fight the way she does for 5 full rounds. The first 2 rounds might be close but I see Shevchenko really taking over in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by decision.
Chris Weidman vs Uriah Hall
- Chris Weidman
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 11-4 UFC at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum. Beat Omari Akhmedov and Lyoto Machida.
- Tools: Weidman has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Uriah Hall
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 12-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Split decision over Antonio Carlos Jr.
- Tools: Hall has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
It’s hard to grade Weidman. He’s only fought 3 times in the last 4 years. He’s been fighting once a year since 2018. He can’t stay healthy. He looked fine against Jacare Souza in 2018, but got viciously knocked out. He hasn’t been the same since. He got erased by Dominick Reyes in less than 2 minutes at 205 lbs. Then he fought Omari Akhmedov, which was supposed to be a good litmus test over where he was at. He looked fine in the 1st round. Had better wrestling. But then he started to gas out halfway through the fight. And he hasn’t even been going that hard in the 1st. He barely squeaked out a decision win with his wrestling. He takes on Hall who’s actually improved the last couple years. He did pretty good against Paulo Costa before getting knocked out in the 2nd. Showed he has 60 wrestling by beating Antonio Carlos Jr. He got taken down, but was able to get back up. And that’s what Hall will do here with Weidman. But look for Hall to end it quick so he’s not having to do that.
Chris’ Pick: Hall by 1st round knockout.
Anthony Smith vs Jimmy Crute
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 205 lbs. 9-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Shogun Rua.
- Tools: Smith has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Jimmy Crute
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas and Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Crute has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
Not sure if Smith has really regressed, but he hasn’t been the same fighter since he lost to Jon Jones. Specifically, his grappling hasn’t been as good. It’s still a 60. It’s not bad. But he can be taken down and controlled by elite wrestlers. The reason that matters with Crute is I don’t expect Smith to be able to take Crute down. Fight is on the feet. Crute’s striking is just a notch above.
Chris’ Pick: Crute by 2nd round knockout.
Randy Brown vs Alex Oliveira
- Randy Brown
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Mickey Gall.
- Tools: Brown has near plus striking (65). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alex Oliveira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Yancy Medeiros.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Beat Peter Sobotta.
- Tools: Oliveira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
I love Brown at anywhere near -150. Oliveira has lost 4 of his last 6 fights. 1 of those wins was a split decision. He’s regressing. His body has accrued a lot of miles. Brown’s last fight with Luque, he got knocked out, but was holding his own pretty well prior to that. The striking was pretty close to equal until Luque caught him. I see Brown as the clear superior striker. I’m picking Brown by decision because of how durable Oliveira is.
Chris’ Pick: Brown by decision.
Dwight Grant vs Stefan Sekulic
- Dwight Grant
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlo Pedersoli. Split decision over Alan Jouban.
- Tools: Grant has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Stefan Sekulic
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Split decision win over an 11-3-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Sekulic has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
This is a really tough one to pick. So many unknowns. Sekulic hasn’t fought in the UFC in almost 3 years. And going into that debut fight against Ramazan Emeev, I didn’t know much about it. I thought Emeev would wipe Sekulic out. I wasn’t the only one. Emeev was a -600 favorite. But Sekulic really surprised by nearly matching Emeev’s wrestling. I was actually pretty close to giving Sekulic’s wrestling a 65 grade, but I just haven’t seen enough of him against high level guys. As for Grant, he was on the verge of knocking Daniel Rodriguez out. I think he gassed himself out a little going for the knockout. And then Rodriguez caught him with a power shot, which led to Grant being knocked out. I had Grant’s striking as a 60 going into that fight. It’s possible it’s a 65 now. He looked improved. I know Grant’s wrestling is at least a 55 based on what he was able to do in the Zak Ottow fight. I could be wrong, but Grant at -225 isn’t too much of a risk.
Chris Pick: Grant by 1st round knockout.
Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Allen has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Karl Roberson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Cezar Ferreira.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann. Submitted Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov.
- Tools: Roberson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
The odds are close on this one, but I feel pretty safe in picking Allen. Sure, Roberson has the better striking, but he lacks knockout power. Allen is a grinder. He has no problem focusing on that to win the fight, even if he has to take Roberson down repeatedly. All 3 of Roberson’s UFC losses have come from being submitted. There’s a blueprint here.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by 2nd round submission.
Tristan Connelly vs Pat Sabatini
- Tristan Connelly
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 13-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat Michel Pereira.
- Tools: Connelly has fringe average striking (45) and average grappling (50).
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Sabatini has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
For anybody that watched the Connelly vs Michel Pereira fight, it wasn’t that Connelly had some breakthrough and was better. Pereira just gassed out. Connelly is actually pretty similar to Sabatini’s last opponent. Had 50 grappling. Sabatini dominated him. Took him down, stayed on top. Got the submission pretty quick in the 2nd round. That’s what Sabatini is going to do to Connelly.
Chris’ Pick: Sabatini by 1st round submission.
Danaa Batgerel vs Kevin Natividad
- Danaa Batgerel
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-2 grappler.
- Tools: Batgerel has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
- Kevin Natividad
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Majority decision win over Irwin Riviera.
- Tools: Natividad has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Great value here. Going into fight week, Batgerel hovers around -190 on average. I understand why. A lot of the betting public looks at the last fight. And last time out, Batgerel knocked out Guido Cannetti. And Natividad got knocked out by Miles Johns. But this is an easy dog bet. Everybody’s forgetting about the wrestling. Watch the Johns-Natividad fight. Johns is a 60 wrestler who couldn’t take Natividad down. Which makes Natividad’s wrestling a 60. And I have Batgerel’s wrestling as a 45. So there’s margin. Meaning even if Batgerel’s wrestling is slightly better than I think, Natividad should still be able to take him down and keep him there most of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Natividad by decision.
Kazula Vargas vs Zhu Rong
- Kazula Vargas
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 striker. Beat a 6-2 striker.
- Tools: Vargas has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Zhu Rong
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 16-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a well rounded 15-5 fighter. Submitted a 19-4 grappler.
- Tools: Rong has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Vargas has surprised me and turned out to be better than I originally thought. It’s also possible his wrestling is a 60. But Zhu looks like an elite prospect similar to Yadong Song. At 21 years old, he’ll be one of the youngest fighters on the entire roster. 19 pro fights. And he’s finished 4 quality prospects. It’s quite the resume at such a young age.
Chris’ Pick: Zhu by 2nd round knockout.
Jeff Molina vs Qileng Aori
- Jeff Molina
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Molina has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-6
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Tools: Aori has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Maybe I’m missing something, but seeing this fight as a pick em is crazy to me. Qileng has potential. But he’s got an 18-6 pro record. He fought a 9-2 striker with decent, average tools, and played rock em sock em robots with him. That fight could’ve gone either way. Molina is polished. Comes from an emerging elite camp in Glory. And I think it’s possible that I might be under rating Molina’s striking. It could be a 60. Qileng lacks knockout power. Highly doubt he can take Molina down. I just don’t see Qileng posing any threat.
Chris’ Pick: Molina by decision.
Ariane Carnelossi vs Na Liang
- Ariane Carnelossi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Carnelossi has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Na Liang
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 13-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler.
- Tools: Na has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
For the UFC to put Carnelossi in with Angela Hill for her debut fight says a lot. She also got a lot of respect from the betting public as Hill was a slight -130 favorite. And Carnelossi impressed. She got off to a slow start in the 1st round, but really turned up the pressure in round 2. I was curious to see if her cardio would hold up in the 3rd, but Hill sliced Carnelossi open with a brutal cut and ended the fight due to doctor stoppage. Which is a shame because the fight was getting pretty close. Not a lot of footage out there on Na, but from the one fight I did watch, she has some grappling. But based on watching how Hill couldn’t contain Carnelossi in the clinch, I don’t think Na will be able to contain her. Fight will be on the feet. Carnelossi’s power will be too much.
Chris’ Pick: Carnelossi by 2nd round knockout.