Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 18-8
- Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
- Tools: Oliveira has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
- Michael Chandler
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 22-5
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Knock out loss and split decision loss to Will Brooks.
- Key Wins: Submitted Eddie Alvarez and a 14-1 wrestler. Knocked out Dan Hooker, a well rounded 14-1 fighter, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Tools: Chandler has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
If I’m being real with myself, I still have questions about both of these guys. Chandler being the obvious one. So, okay, his striking looked like it’s at least a slight tier above Hooker. Could Chandler maintain that pace and pressure over a full 15 minutes with Hooker? I’m not sure. But I do know that Hooker only landed a few leg kicks and that was it. Chandler’s wrestling was never tested. How is he going measure up to Oliveira. And yeah, despite Oliveira having 26 career UFC fights, I still have questions on him too. Mainly, the quality of competition he’s beat. He won 6 in a row. Biggest names in that 6 are Jim Miller and Jared Gordon. Mid tier guys. He submitted Kevin Lee. But Lee was doing well in that fight going into the 3rd round. He started to gas out, his fatal flaw, and Oliveira dropped him. Oliveira dominated Ferguson, but Tony might be a shell of his former self. I think the tools that I have listed for both fighters is as good as an educated guess as there is. Because we’re having to project here. Oliveira has a history of losing to the best of the best. Yes, he’s gone 9-1 in the UFC at 155 lbs, but again, he hasn’t beat any elite guys in the lightweight division. I’m picking Chandler because his wrestling should be at least a 65. I think he’ll be able to get up if taken down. I think good portions of this fight will be on the feet. And Chandler seems to have better striking and more power. It’s not my most confident pick, but I think it’s a solid educated guess.
Chris’ Pick: Chandler by 2nd round knockout.
Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush
- Tony Ferguson
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 18-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Tools: Ferguson has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Beniel Dariush
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 14-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Tools: Dariush has near plus striking (65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
Full disclosure, I like Ferguson. I originally picked Ferguson to win this fight. But me picking Ferguson had more to do with picking the Ferguson of old. I rewatched his fight with Charles Oliveira. And he might never be the same after that Justin Gaethje fight. Even before Oliveira wrecked Ferguson’s arm at the end of the 1st round, Oliveira took Ferguson down with ease and held him there. Before Ferguson got hurt. I’d be lying to myself to keep Ferguson’s grappling a 65. It’s more of a 60 now. Above average. And go watch Dariush’s last fight. He took on Ferreira. I thought him keeping the fight on the feet was going to be the key for him. That he has better striking than Ferreira. And what’d he do? Took Ferreira down, again, and again, and again. When Dariush came into the UFC, he was more of a grappler. Now though, he’s well rounded, has striking, but is more of a wrestler than a grappler. So let me ask you this. If you think Dariush was aggressive with his take downs with Ferreira, how much more aggressive will he be with Ferguson? I mean, Oliveira laid the blue print down. Ferguson’s only real shot in this fight is if he can show that he came back too soon from the Gaethje fight when he lost to Oliveira. Maybe he should have taken more time off. Maybe his skills rebound. But then I hear about, oh, he’s working on his boxing. That makes no sense. He lost to Oliveira because of the take downs. Dariush is going to try and do the same thing and you’re worried about the boxing? I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.
Chris’ Pick: Dariush by decision.
Rogerio Bontorin vs Matt Schnell
- Rogerio Bontorin
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raulian Paiva. Submitted a 15-4 grappler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 13-0 fighter. Split decision win over Magomed Bibulatov.
- Tools: Bontorin has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Tools: Schnell has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
This is a really tough fight to pick and I’m actually changing my pick. I had forgotten how much Bontorin improved his striking. On the surface, Bontorin got knocked out. He’s a grappler. Got caught. But that’s not the story. The first couple minutes of the fight, Bontorin’s striking was pretty close to equal with Kara France. And I know Kara France has 70 striking. I’m grading Bontorin’s striking a 65 for now because I just don’t know if he would’ve been able to keep it up. Then he took Kara France down, got super close to finishing Kara France. Probably gassed his arms out going for multiple chokes. Kara France escaped toward the end of the round, and knocked out a vulnerable Bontorin. You know, it’s possible Bontorin’s grappling could be a 70 as well, but to be safe, I have it as a 65. Schnell is also tough to grade for me. He shocked me when he decided to not try and take Tyson Nam down. He decided to make it a stand up fight. And it was super close. He won a split decision. I’m pretty sure Nam has 60 striking. Schnell maybe landed a few more shots. Maybe his striking could be graded a 65. Maybe. It’s also possible that maybe Schnell’s grappling isn’t as good as I think it is. Maybe a 60, with how he had no interest in trying to take Nam down. Lots of maybes in this fight. So, if we’re looking at projections, it seems Bontorin has the higher upside. Maybe 70 striking. Maybe 70 grappling. I don’t think Schnell has that ceiling. I think he’s in his prime right now. Then you add in Bontorin’s price which is +130 in a lot of books. I think that’s the way I have to go.
Chris’ Pick: Bontorin by decision.
Katlyn Chookagian vs Viviane Araujo
- Katlyn Chookagian
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 125 lbs. 7-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
- Key Wins: Beat Cynthia Calvillo, Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana.
- Tools: Chookagian has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has plus wrestling (70).
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa ,and Alexis Davis.
- Tools: Araujo has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
This is a really hard fight to pick. And I understand Chookagian being the favorite at around -140. She’ll have the reach advantage, is much bigger, has more experience. She’s also really improved her wrestling. Since getting taken down and dominated by Valentina Shevchenko, Chookagian’s wrestling has gone from a 60 to a plus 70. But would she use that against Araujo, I doubt it with Araujo’s grappling and submission game. I think this is a stand up fight and what most are over looking is the power advantage Araujo will have. Araujo is built pretty similarly to Jessica Andrade. We saw how Andrade was able to get inside. I think Araujo can do the same.
Chris’ Pick: Araujo by 2nd round knockout.
Edson Barboza vs Shane Burgos
- Edson Barboza
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 145 lbs. 14-8 UFC record at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Beat Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
- Tools: Barboza has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Shane Burgos
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marwan Amirkhani and Charles Rosa. Split decision over Cub Swanson.
- Tools: Burgos has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Barboza is still dangerous, but after seeing him now at 145 lbs for 2 fights, his striking isn’t the same. And that’s probably due to him being 35 years old with 24 career UFC fights. Burgos though is coming into his prime, has better striking. It’s possible that Barboza might have more power, so he’s going to have to watch out for that. Burgos at -130 is priced about right.
Chris’ Pick: Burgos by decision.
Jacare Souza vs Andre Muniz
- Jacare Souza
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 9-5 UFC record at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jan Blachowicz at 205 lbs. Split decision losses to Kelvin Gastelum and Yoel Romero.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson and Chris Weidman.
- Tools: Jacare has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 20-4 pro record
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker and a 6-0 striker. Beat an 8-2 grappler.
- Tools: Muniz has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
Seems like the UFC thinks more highly of Muniz than I do and less highly of Jacare than I do. It’s possible Muniz has 65 grappling, but I’m not completely sold yet. I think he’s currently closer to a 60. Maybe his striking is a 55, albeit with 45 power. Even if I’m looking at Muniz in the rosiest scenario possible, there’s no way he’s going to be able to submit Jacare. And in the stand up, there’s no way he wins there either. Jacare is one of my favorite locks on the card and at -110, he has tremendous value.
Chris’ Pick: Jacare by decision.
Mike Grundy vs Lando Vannata
- Mike Grundy
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nad Narimani. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler and a 12-1 grappler. Beat a 12-2 wrestler and a 16-4 grappler.
- Tools: Grundy has average striking (50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Lando Vannata
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-5-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Bobby Green, Drakkar Klose, and Marc Diakiese.
- Key Draws: Fought Matt Frevola and Bobby Green to draws.Key Wins: Knocked out John Makdessi. Beat Yancy Medeiros.
- Tools: Vannata has above average striking (60). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
So the big wild card in this fight is that this is Vannata’s 145 lb debut. So who knows how he looks. His tools I have listed here are based on his 155 lb fights. Maybe he’s stronger and has better wrestling, more power. Or maybe his chin and cardio don’t hold up as well. But Grundy is the type of fighter that doesn’t care if the fight is boring. He’ll do what he needs to win. And he’s certainly not going to want to trade strikes with Vannata. Even if Vannata’s grappling takes a step forward, Grundy’s wrestling will still very likely be superior.
Chris’ Pick: Grundy by decision.
Andrea Lee vs Antonina Shevchenko
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Lee has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Antonina Shevchenko
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Lucie Pudilova. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
- Tools: Antonina Shevchenko has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
Shevchenko showed big time improvement in her wrestling last time out with Lipski. On the feet, it could be close. But there’s a blueprint on how to beat Lee now. And that’s taking her down. Her grappling has been a 55. Started her UFC career 3-0. But has lost 3 in a row now. Losing the last 2 because Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi were able to take her down repeatedly. It’s been 8 months since the Modafferi loss. Has she improved her grappling? We’ll see. But Shevchenko should be a safe pick. The striking numbers will be close, but that wrestling advantage for Antonina will be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by decision.
Jordan Wright vs Jamie Pickett
- Jordan Wright
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Wright has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jamie Pickett
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 11-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker.
- Tools: Pickett has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
Pickett has tools. At times, he looks like a very good fighter. But he gets hit a lot. He’s a much better offensive fighter than defensive fighter. Wright is going to take advantage of that where he’s bigger and has a bigger variety of striking.
Chris’ Pick: Wright by 2nd round knockout.
Gina Mazany vs Priscila Cachoeira
- Gina Mazany
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Beat Yanan Wu.
- Tools: Mazany has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Priscila Cachoeira
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shana Dobson.
- Tools: Cachoeira has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50).
Initially, I thought this fight was going to be a lot closer when first looking at it. But I wasn’t aware of a small, yet significant detail, which is that Mazany is way better at 125 lbs. Yes, she has a 2-4 overall record in the UFC. But a 1-0 record at flyweight. She took on Rachael Ostovich last time out who has at least 50 grappling and Mazany out classed her with her wrestling. Mazany is going to use that to take Cachoeira down repeatedly.
Chris’ Pick: Mazany by decision.
Kevin Aguilar vs Tucker Lutz
- Kevin Aguilar
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key WIns: Beat Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola.
- Tools: Aguilar has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Tucker Lutz
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Lutz has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
For the life of me, I don’t understand how Aguilar isn’t a -300 favorite. Some books have him at +100. I don’t understand it. Maybe it’s because Aguilar has gone 3-3 in the UFC and Lutz is coming off 2 wins on The Contender. But I don’t see how Lutz wins here. He won’t have the wrestling to take Aguilar down. And his striking is nowhere near Aguilar’s level. Aguilar at anything + is one of the best value’s on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Aguilar by decision.
Sean Soriano vs Christos Giagos
- Sean Soriano
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 15-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-4 grappler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Soriano has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Christos Giagos
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
- Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic and a 10-2 striker.
- Tools: Giagos has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I have both of these guys graded identically. And you could say that Giagos has an advantage in that Soriano took this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. But this is really a coin flip fight. I was originally going to pick Giagos, but the odds just came out and they have Giagos at -225. That’s crazy. Soriano has looked great his last 3 fights. 2 of his 3 fights have been 1st round KOs. He now fights at Sanford MMA. I think picking this fight is all about projection. And Soriano might be starting to unlock more power in his striking. Priced anywhere near +175, I think that’s the right play.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by decision.