Werdum vs Tybura, Rawlings vs Clark, Means vs Muhammad Fight Picks

-Fabricio Werdum: Marcin Tybura has a 3-1 UFC record. 32 years old. I think this is a horrible matchup for him. Tybura lost to Tim Johnson in his UFC debut by being outwrestled and grinded. Werdum has the skills to do the same thing and take the fight to the ground if he wants, where he can easily submit Tybura. I don’t think this is a close fight at all. Tybura’s 3 wins have been against lower level competition in the UFC and Werdum is going to be too big a jump. Werdum by 1st round submission.

-Bec Rawlings: Jessica-Rose Clark is a decent prospect. The 7-4 record isn’t that great, but she’s lost to top female strawweights in Sarah Kaufman and Pannie Kianzad. It’s possible Clark could pull off the upset and beat Rawlings, who is very beatable, Rawlings herself having an overall record of 7-6 and 2-3 UFC record. But I like Rawlings to win this fight because Clark is taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. Plus, Rawlings has a big advantage in experience with Clark making her debut and Rawlings beating a 5 fight UFC vet. I think that’ll be the difference in a close fight that Rawlings wins by decision.

-Tim Means: Belal Muhammad has the upside of a lower tier gatekeeper, with a 3-2 record in the UFC so far. He doesn’t have any tools that stand out that could make him elite. He is well rounded though so when taking on a fighter that doesn’t belong in the UFC, Muhammad can exploit weaknesses well enough to pick up decision wins. Means though is a bonafide upper tier gatekeepr with a 7-3 UFC record at 170 lbs, with Means only losing to top ranked welterweights in Matt Brown, Neil Magny and Alex Oliveira. I see Means using his lankiness to keep good distance and pick Muhammad apart with his boxing. I’m thinking knockout in the 2nd round for Means.

-Elias Theodorou: I can’t imagine Theodorou losing this fight to Daniel Kelly. Yes, Kelly is extremely awkward and has a 6-2 record in the UFC, but he’s 40 years old and coming off a 1st round knockout loss to Derek Brunson. Kelly’s only 2 pro losses? Getting blitzed and knocked out within the first 2 minutes of the fight. I think Theodorou follows that blueprint here. Also, Kelly was barely able to squeak past Rashad Evans, who’s in the twilight of his career. Theodorou is a similar fighter, but in his prime at 29 years old. But I think Theodorou knocks Kelly out in the 1st round.

-Alexander Volkanovski: The UFC has found a decent short notice opponent in Shane Young. 24 years old. 11-3 record. 2 of the 3 fighters he’s lost to are in the UFC. But Volkanovski is an elite prospect and there’s just no way that Young is going to beat Volkanovski on 1 week’s notice. This is going to be a first round knockout.

-Eric Shelton: Jenel Lausa has to be one of the worst prospects currently in the UFC. I see Lausa having zero chance of winning this fight. Shelton is 26 years and has shown signs of a breakout. He lost a split decision to future title contender Alex Pantoja and lost a split decision to Jarred Brooks because he couldn’t defend against the takedowns. Shelton will have no such issues in this fight however and I expect Shelton to submit Lausa in the 1st round.

-Ryan Benoit: One of the hardest fighters to figure out in the UFC is Benoit. He has a 2-3 UFC record. Is in his prime at 28 years old. He has a big knockout win over title contender Sergio Pettis on his resume. The 3 losses he has are against quality fighters Brandon Moreno, Ben Nguyen, and Josh Sampo. The other win Benoit has was a close, split decision win over 38 year old Fredy Serrano. My best educated guess is that Benoit is a lower tier gatekeeper that got lucky against Pettis, but I could be wrong. The one thing I do know for sure is that I don’t think much of Benoit’s opponent Ashkan Mokhtarian. Before signing with the UFC Mokhtarian doesn’t have a single win over a quality prospect. He’s 32 years old, with not much development left. And he didn’t look that great in his debut against John Moraga. So based off of what I know of Mokhtarian, I’m picking Benoit by decision.

-Nadia Kassem: Really unpredictable and difficult fight to pick here. Kassem is 21 years old, is a very intriguing top prospect and the thing that’s unusual with her, is even though she fought poor competition, it’s not usual for female strawweights to have 4 first round knockouts in her only 4 pro fights. Matter of fact, the longest pro fight Kassem had lasted 1 minute and 27 seconds. But Kassem takes on a seasoned vet in Alex Chambers who is a decent lower tier gatekeeper. Chambers has a 1-2 UFC record, but does have a win over current UFC fighter Jodie Esquibel. If it was most prospects, I’d favor Chambers due to the big jump up in competition, but Kassem looks like she could be a special talent and I’m going to go out on a limb here to predict Kassem winning this fight with a 2nd round submission.

-Tai Tuivasa: Rashad Coulter showed a ton of heart in his UFC debut with Chase Sherman, but the reality when it comes to MMA skills is that Coulter is one of the worst prospects in the UFC. All 8 of Coulter’s pro wins have been against fighters that either just made pro debuts or had losing records. Coulter also lost to Derek Perkins a few years ago who now has a 2-5 record. Tuivasa on the other hand is a very good prospect. A little unproven with only 5 pro fights. And the best fighters he’s defeated had 3-1 and 5-2 records. But Tuivasa is only 24 years old and is only going to get better. Coulter may be durable as proven in the Sherman fight, but all 5 of Tuivasa’s wins have come via 1st round knockout and I expect that trend to continue here.

-Damien Brown: Before signing with the UFC, Frank Camacho had a 20-4 record. Looks impressive right? Problem is that most of Camacho’s wins have come against very poor competition. Out of the 6 decent to average fighters Camacho went up against, he went 2-4. Probably the reason he mostly fought below average opponents. And Camacho lost his UFC debut. Brown is 2-2 in the UFC. He’s not a top prospect. 32 years old. But he’s proven that he can beat pretty good fighters like Jon Tuck and Cesar Arzamendia. And that’s more than we can say about Camacho’s resume. So I like Brown by decision.

-Jake Matthews: Despite having a 4-3 UFC record, Matthews is still a top prospect at 155 lbs. All 4 wins have been finishes. 2 of his losses have been to top contenders in Kevin Lee and James Vick. And Matthews lost a close split decision to Andrew Holbrook last time out due to being outwrestled. But the key in Matthews upside is him having all the skill he has at the young age of 23. Bojan Velickovic is pretty good, but has the upside of a lower tier gatekeeper. He has 2 wins, 2 losses and a draw. Last loss Velickovic had was to rising contender Darren Till and I think Till drew up the perfect blueprint to beating Velickovic and that Matthews will have a very similar game plan. Look for Matthews to stay on the outside with more technical striking and that he’s eventually going to catch Velickovic and knock him out in the 2nd round.

-Nik Lentz: Most aren’t that familiar with Lentz due to him fighting regularly on the prelims, but Lentz has been sneaky in putting up a 11-5 record in the UFC, so he’s a very good gate keeper. Now, it’s possible Will Brooks is decent and could last in the UFC, but he’s been booked against tough competition. And Lentz isn’t any easier. I have a feeling with Brooks being 1-2 in the UFC and back against the wall, he’d want to go back to his bread and butter, wrestling, but unfortunately for Brooks, he won’t be able to do that with an equally skilled wrestler in Lentz. This fight is going to stay on the feet and I see Lentz winning by a clear decision.

-Adam Wieczorek: Anthony Hamilton just fought 2 months ago. He’s lost 3 in a row. And he’s 37 years old. I’m almost finished with my heavyweight prospect rankings and I have Wieczorek clocking in ranked #7 on my list. This is a showcase fight for Wieczorek and I see a first round knockout here.

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