-Al Iaquinta: Turns out, there’s a reason Khabib Nurmagomedov didn’t look great beating Iaquinta back in April. It’s because Iaquinta has improved a lot the past year. And I thought for sure Kevin Lee would beat Iaquinta because Lee would have the wrestling to make it a stand up fight and easily out box him. But surprisingly, Iaquinta was the one to out strike Lee. With Donald Cerrone, yes, he looked good against Alexander Hernandez. But there’s a giant gap between someone like Hernandez who’s still green and the top 5 at 155 lbs. Cerrone is 36 years old. And his chin isn’t what it once was. Iaquinta has plus power and I’m picking him to knock Cerrone out in the 2nd round.
-Derek Brunson: Theodorou is 8-2 in the UFC. 30 years old. Brunson is 9-5 in the UFC. 35 years old. Brunson is an effective gate keeper. And Theodorou’s upside is an upper tier gate keeper. The lack of elite plus plus tools limit Theodorou’s potential. The recipe for beating Elias Theodorou is you have to keep the fight on the feet, stay out of Theodorou’s clinch, and out strike Theodorou. That’s the game plan Robert Whittaker and Thiago Santos used to beat Theodorou and I expect Brunson to have the skills to execute the same type of plan. I was going to pick Brunson by knockout, but when I saw that Santos won by decision, I got to give Theodorou respect in being durable. Brunson by decision.
-Shane Burgos: Love these types of fights. Young potential contender goes against the veteran contender. Well, the blueprint to beating Cub Swanson is out there. Getting him to the ground and submitting him has always been the hole he hasn’t patched up. Swanson is also now 35 years old and has lost 3 in a row, albeit to fellow contenders Renato Moicano, Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega. Burgos is 28 years old. 4-1 in the UFC so far. Is an elite prospect and very well rounded. He did lose to Calvin Kattar and you could say that Swanson and Kattar are pretty similar. Burgos was out struck and faded from the pace Kattar put on. Things Swanson could do too. But I think Burgos learns from that, makes adjustments and focuses on taking Swanson down in this fight. I think he does that and does enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Brad Katona: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Katona has the look of a possible contender. 27 years old. 2-0 in the UFC so far. Has got plus grappling and average striking. He takes on Merab Dvalishvili who’s got plus wrestling and that’s about it. I can Katona wanting to keep the fight standing up and he should be able to do that. I also expect Katona’s striking to be improved and he’ll cruise to a decision win here.
-Sergey Spivak: UPSET SPECIAL 2: To show how shallow the heavyweight division is in the UFC, look at Walt Harris, who’s now got a 4-6 UFC record. Is 35 years old. And the UFC is giving him another fight, not releasing him. I thought Harris was on the rise back in 2017, but since getting submitted by Fabricio Werdum, his development has stalled since then. Harris is known for his plus power, but it’s paired with average striking technique. Spivak is a top prospect. 24 years old. Undefeated. And very well rounded. He’s got a high ceiling because of that. But the one knock is that he’s mostly beat tomato cans and journeymen outside the UFC. His biggest win came against regional vet Tony Lopez. I think Spivak’s grappling will be good enough to take Harris down and will submit him in the 1st round.
-Andrew Sanchez: I really thought Markus Perez was going to beat Sanchez, but Sanchez came in with the best striking I’ve seen in his career. He was faster and more accurate. He easily won the decision. Sanchez is 31 years old. He’s 3-2 in the UFC. 5-2 if you count his wins on The Ultimate Fighter. And he should be 6-1 because he was super close to finishing Ryan Janes, but gassed out and lost late in the fight. I think middleweight is way too deep for Sanchez to be a contender, but with how thin light heavyweight is, he could have a chance there. He takes on newcomer Marc-Andre Barriault who looks to be an average prospect. Striker. 29 years old. 11-1 pro record. But I’m skeptical of his upside. 3 of his 11 wins are split decision wins. And the split decision wins weren’t over top prospects, but below average prospects. He lost to a 2-1 fighter. Therefore, I grade Barriault’s striking as average and his best tool. That’s nowhere near enough to get it done against Sanchez. We’re looking at a 1st round Sanchez knockout.
-Sarah Moras: UPSET SPECIAL 3: Full disclosure, I’m picking Moras because I think this is a close fight that could go either way and the odds right now are insane. I’m updating my pick on Tuesday of fight week and right now one book has Moras at +530. That’s nuts. My original pick was Chiasson, but I can absolutely see Moras winning this fight. My thinking is, has Chiasson truly answered the grappling question? Could Moras take Chiasson down and out grapple her to win? After all, Chiasson’s only career loss was an amateur loss to Felicia Spencer. Chiasson is obviously talented, but still green with not many pro fights. Moras is 31 years old. 4-4 in the UFC. And she’s lost to quality fighters in Jessica Andrade, Julianna Pena, Lucie Pudilova, and Talita Bernardo. Moras has near plus grappling and above average submissions. And yes, Chiasson looks like a title contender. 2-0 in the UFC so far. 27 years old. She’s got plus striking. Plus plus power. She reminds me of a young Cris Cyborg. But I think Moras is very under rated and is capable of winning this fight. Her best chance will be getting Chiasson in the clinch, pushing her against the fence, taking her down and not allowing Chiasson to strike at range. Moras by decision.
-Vince Morales: UPSET SPECIAL 4: I’m not sold on Aiemann Zahabi being a top prospect. 31 years old. 1-1 in the UFC so far. Yes, his first 6 wins were all 1st round finishes. But the best opponents he beat in that run had a 2-0 and 3-1 record. Zahabi looks to be decently well rounded, with his striking a little bit ahead of other area. I’d rate the striking as slightly above average. And my skepticism comes from Zahabi getting knocked out by Ricardo Ramos, who’s known as a grappler. His opponent, Morales, I don’t see him as that good of a prospect either, but he held his own in his UFC debut, losing to Song Yadong. And Morales did have his moments. Morales is 28 years old. And has above average striking. I’m picking Morales to out point Zahabi on the feet and win by decision.
-Nordine Taleb: It’s a shame Siyar Bahadurzada got hurt and had to pull out of this fight. He’s had a hard time staying healthy throughout his career. So Bahadurzada is out and Kyle Prepolec steps in to face Taleb on 7 days notice. Prepolec is 29 years old. He’s not really a prospect. 12-5 pro record. Somewhat well rounded with 7 knockouts and 3 submissions. Taleb is a striker. 37 years old. 6-4 in the UFC. Has plus striking. Above average power. Prepolec will have nothing for Taleb. I expect a quick 1st round knockout.
-Matt Sayles: Yes, Kyle Nelson came really close to pulling off a “monster” upset over Carlos Ferreira on short notice, almost knocking him out. But the lack of cardio caught up with him and he gassed out. But another thing to point out is that even though Ferreira’s striking is vastly improving, Ferreira’s striking isn’t Sayles’ striking. Nelson is 27 years old. Well rounded. Sayles is 25 years old. Has plus striking. Sayles lost to Sheymon Moraes. No shame there. His only other loss was when he got out wrestled and lost via split decision to a 8-3 fighter. I don’t think Nelson will be able to take Sayles down. And in a stand up fight, Sayles clearly has the edge there. So I’ll go with Sayles by 2nd round knockout.
-Juan Adams: Really surprised this fight wasn’t booked for the main card. Two heavyweights and both have a legit chance of becoming contenders. Adams is 1-0 in the UFC after his debut win over Chris de la Rocha, which was a little harder for Adams than I thought it would be, but he got the knockout in the 3rd round. 5-0 pro record. 27 years old. Takes on Arjan Bhuller. 2-1 in the UFC. 8-1 pro record. 32 years old. This whole fight will come down to whether or not Bhullar can take Adams down. And being that Adams has above average wrestling and will be close to 20 lbs bigger, I think Adams will stuff the take downs. He’s already shown the ability to keep the fight on the feet. And if that does happen, Adams’ plus plus power will end the fight pretty quick. 1st round knockout win for Adams.
-Cole Smith: UPSET SPECIAL 5: At one point years ago, Mitch Gagnon was talked about as a top prospect, but due to personal issues and injuries, he hasn’t fought in 2 and a half years and has only fought once in almost 5 years. Gagnon has a 4-3 UFC record. 34 years old now. He’s a submission specialist. Smith looks like a decent prospect. 6-0 pro record. 30 years old. Well rounded with 2 knockouts, 3 submissions. I’m picking Smith to be adequate enough in his grappling to keep Gagnon from taking him down. And from there, he’ll have a big advantage on the feet where he’ll out point Gagnon for a decision win.