Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker
—Paul Felder
Razor close fight. Dan Hooker is 29 years old. 9-4 UFC record overall. But Hooker has been a completely different fighter at 155 lbs, not having to cut as much weight. Hooker’s UFC record at lightweight is 6-1. Got knocked out by Edson Barboza, Hooker’s only UFC loss at 155 lbs. He’s knocked out Ross Pearson, Jim Miller, Gilbert Burns, and James Vick. Submitted Marc Diakiese and beat Al Iaquinta in his last fight. Hooker has plus striking. He also has above average wrestling and submissions. Felder is 34 years old. 9-3 UFC record at 155 lbs. He’s knocked out Danny Castillo, Stevie Ray, and Charles Oliveira. Submitted Daron Cruickshank. Won a unanimous decision over James Vick and a split decision win over Edson Barboza in their 2nd fight. Felder has plus striking paired with above average power. And he’s got above average wrestling. On the feet, it’ll be really close. However, the thing I do know is that Felder is more durable than Hooker is. And if they go power for power, Hooker is more likely to fall first. Ultimately, I’m picking Felder because of his ability to grind out close wins and I think his cardio will hold up better than Hooker’s. Felder by decision.
Jimmy Crute vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
—Jimmy Crute
To me, this is the most interesting fight on the card. Can’t emphasize enough how young both are for 205 lbs. They’re both elite prospects, but both are coming off losses. Crute is 23 years old. 10-1 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. Only career loss is getting submitted by Misha Cirkunov in his last fight. Crute has submitted Paul Craig and knocked out Sam Alvey. He beat a 6-2 grappler, in only his 2nd pro fight, and a 8-2 striker. Crute has plus striking paired with above average power. And he also has average wrestling and submissions. Michal Oleksiejczuk is 24 years old. 14-3 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Was submitted by Ovince St. Preux in his last fight. He also got knocked out by a well rounded 4-4 fighter, but that was back when Oleksiejczuk was 18 years old. Has 1st round knockouts over Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Oleksiejczuk beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter and knocked out a 5-0 striker. Because Villante is so durable, I have to give Oleksiejczuk’s striking a plus grade. So, some people might look at this fight and say, someone is getting knocked out. But Crute is a really smart fighter and the path of least resistance for him is to take Oleksiejczuk down. I think Crute has the wrestling to do it. The ground is where Oleksiejczuk is vulnerable. I think Crute gets the submission win in the 2nd round.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Xiaonan Yan
—Xiaonan Yan
This is a fight where both fighters are going in opposite directions career wise. Xiaonan is 30 years old. 11-1 pro record. 4-0 UFC record. Xiaonan’s best win came against Angela Hill. The other 3 UFC wins Xiaonan came against below average UFC competition. And all her wins outside the UFC were over cans. She has above average striking paired with average power. Xiaonan also has average wrestling. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is 34 years old. 5-5 UFC record. Kowalkiewicz has a win over Randa Markos and split decision wins over Felice Herrig and Rose Namajunas that was back in 2016. Those are her biggest wins. Kowalkiewicz has above average striking paired with below average power. And she’s got average wrestling. If you look at the resumes, the skills for both fighters are close. But Kowalkiewicz has talked about wanting to retire soon. She’s lost 3 in a row. She’s lost 5 of her last 7. Her skills are regressing. And there’s a decent chance that Xiaonan’s skills take a step forward here. Because of that, I’m going with Xiaonan by split decision.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Ben Sosoli
—Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Ben Sosoli is 30 years old. 7-2 pro record. Has had 2 UFC fights, both ended in no contests. Sosoli has lost to a 3-1 fighter and a 13-8 journeyman. And all his wins have been over cans. Sosoli has average striking. Rogerio de Lima is 34 years old. 5-4 UFC record. 1-1 at heavywegiht. All 4 of Rogerio de Lima’s UFC losses have come by submission, including from Gadzhimurad Antigulov. He has a knockout win over Igor Pokrajac, a submission win over Clint Hester and beat Adam Wieczorek in his last fight. Rogerio de Lima has plus striking. Stand up fight. And the only way Rogerio de Lima losses is if he gasses out because Sosoli has proven to be pretty durable. Rogerio de Lima by decision.
Magomed Mustafaev vs Brad Riddell
—Magomed Mustafaev
Here’s hoping Mustafaev starts a run of being more active. He’s only fought once in the last 3 years, which was last April. Mustafaev is 31 years old. 14-2 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. He lost to Kevin Lee. Got taken down and submitted. But he’s got 1st round knockouts over Joe Proctor and Rafael Fiziev. Mustafaev also has knocked out current UFC fighter Abubakar Nurmagomedov and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. He’s got plus striking and average wrestling. Brad Riddell is 28 years old. 7-1 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC so far. Has lost to a 9-5 grappler. Beat a 12-2 striker in his UFC debut. Riddell also has a knockout win over Kenan Song outside the UFC. He has striking that’s a little above average. This fight will be on the feet and I don’t see how Riddell wins. I’m very confident in Mustafaev knocking Riddell out. 2nd round.
Zubaira Tukhugov vs Kevin Aguilar
—Zubaira Tukhugov
Kevin Aguilar is 31 years old. 17-2 pro record. 3-1 in the UFC so far. Got out struck by Dan Ige in his last fight. Has wins over Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola. Aguilar has above average wrestling and average striking. Tukhugov is 29 years old. 3-1-1 UFC record. Fought Lerone Murphy to a draw in his last fight, but it was also Tukhugov’s first fight in 3 and a half years. Also lost a close split decision to Renato Moicano. Tukhugov’s best win was over Douglas Silva de Andrade. Tukhugov has near plus striking, paired with average power. He also has above average wrestling. Easy fight to pick, assuming we see a version of Tukhugov that more closely resembles the 2016 version instead of the version in his last fight. Aguilar won’t be able to take Tukhugov down. Tukhugov has better striking. He’s going to cruise to a decision win.
Jalin Turner vs Josh Culibao
—Jalin Turner
Turner is 24 years old. 8-5 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Matt Frevola in his last fight. But he knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter in his UFC debut and knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Turner has near plus striking and average wrestling. Josh Culibao is 25 years old. 8-0 pro record. He’s knocked out a 6-2 striker and beat a 5-0-1 striker by split decision. Culibao has average striking and average wrestling. Pretty straight forward fight. This is by far the toughest opponent Culibao has gone against. He took the fight on 3 weeks notice. Turner has better striking. I see Turner knocking Culibao out in the 2nd round.
Jake Matthews vs Emil Meek
—Jake Matthews
Meek is 31 years old. 9-4 pro record. 1-2 UFC record. He hasn’t been very active. He’s had only 2 fights in the past 3 years. Meek got out struck by Bartosz Fabinski. Has a win over Jordan Mein. Got his UFC contract by knocking out Rousimar Palhares. Meek has also knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. He’s got average striking and average wrestling. Matthews is 25 years old. Which makes his 8-4 UFC record pretty incredible. 12 UFC fights by the age of 25. He lost a split decision to Andrew Holbrook. Has a submission win over Johnny Case and a decision win over Jingliang Li. Matthews has plus grappling. And his striking has improved to being near plus paired with average power. It’s possible that Matthews could beat Meek in the striking exchanges. But the path of least resistance is to take Meek down. I think Matthews gets the submission win by the 2nd round.
Kenan Song vs Callan Potter
—Kenan Song
Callan Potter is 35 years old. 18-8 pro record. 1-1 UFC record. He’s a journeyman who made it into the UFC by taking a fight on very short notice against Jalin Turner and Turner knocked him out in less than a minute. However, Potter was able to win his next fight against Maki Pitolo by out grappling him. Potter has grappling that is close to average. Kenan is 29 years old. 15-5 pro record. 3-1 UFC record, although the 3 wins have been over below average UFC competition. He lost to Alex Morono. Kenan has also lost to a 3-0 wrestler and a 10-5 wrestler. And he’s knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Kenan has striking that’s a little bit above average. So, history has shown that Kenan can be taken down and beaten. And Potter’s got some grappling, but he’s more of a submission guy than a take down guy. And Potter can be knocked out. I think Kenan blitzes Potter and knocks him out in the 1st round.
Kai Kara-France vs Tyson Nam
—Kai Kara-France
The pro records might look similar but skill wise, Kara-France is on a different level than Nam. Kara-France is 26 years old. 20-8 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. He’s been a completely different fighter since he started training at City Kickboxing. He has a split decision win over Raulian Paiva and a unanimous decision win over Mark de la Rosa. Kara-France actually got out struck by Brandon Moreno in his last fight. Kara-France has plus striking paired with average power. He also has average wrestling. Tyson Nam is 36 years old. 18-10-1 pro record. Lost to Sergio Pettis in his UFC debut. Nam is a journeyman who has average striking. Stylistically, this is a very favorable fight for Kara-France as he’s got way better striking. Kara-France will cruise here to a decision win.
Angela Hill vs Loma Lookboonmee
—Angela Hill
This fight is going to test Loma Lookboonmee’s take down defense. Lookboonmee is 24 years old. 4-1 pro record. Beat Aleksandra Albu by split decision in her UFC debut. Her only career loss happened when she got submitted by a 1-1 grappler. Lookboonmee has above average striking paired with average power. She also has average wrestling. Hill is on the best run of her career. Similar to Roxanne Modafferi, her success is coming from focusing on her wrestling and top game more. 35 years old. 5-5 UFC record. She has a split decision win over Livinha Souza. Beat Maryna Moroz and knocked out Hannah Cifers. Hill has improved her wrestling to being above average. She also has average striking. I think Hill knows she doesn’t want to strike with Lookboonmee. I think she goes for the take down in this fight a lot earlier than previous fights. And look, Lookboonmee only has 5 pro MMA fights. Her fighting Hannah Goldy as originally planned, Goldy has 6 pro fights. So that would’ve been a much more even fight. But Hill is way too experienced. She’ll get the take downs and will TKO Lookboonmee with ground and pound in the 1st round.
Takashi Sato vs Maki Pitolo
—Maki Pitolo
Sato is 29 years old. 15-3 pro record. 1-1 UFC record. Sato got submitted by Muhammed Belal in his last fight. He’s also been knocked out by a 13-10 striker. Sato has knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a 10-1 striker. Sato has average striking. Maki Pitolo is 29 years old. 12-5 pro record. 1-1 UFC record. Lost to Callan Potter in his last fight. Pitolo did well in the first round and gassed out halfway through the fight. Pitolo has also been submitted by a well rounded 13-7 fighter and a well rounded 28-12 UFC vet. And he’s been knocked out by a 3-5 striker. Pitolo has knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter in his UFC debut. And he also beat an 8-2 striker. Pitolo has average striking and wrestling that’s close to average. On the feet, it could be a coin flip, although I think Pitolo has more knockout power. And if he gets out struck, there’s a chance Pitolo might be able to take Sato down. But more likely, this stays on the feet and I’ll take Pitolo by 2nd round knockout.
Shana Dobson vs Priscila Cachoeira
—Priscila Cahcoeira
Razor close fight. Cachoeira is 31 years old. 8-3 pro record. 0-3 UFC record. Got taken down frequently by Molly McCann and lost. She also lost to striker Luana Carolina. All wins over cans. Cachoeira has average striking. Shana Dobson is 30 years old. 3-3 pro record. 1-3 UFC record. Lost to Lauren Mueller. Couldn’t stop the take downs. All wins over cans. Dobson has average striking. Both are one dimensional. Striking will be really close. I like Cachoeira a little more due to having more pro experience, but also the bigger factor is that I think she has a cardio advantage. I think the first half of the fight could go either way, but Cachoeira will put on a high pace and take over in the 2nd half. Cachoeira by split decision.